饭饭TXT > 军事历史 > 《巴尔干两千年(出版书)》作者:[美]罗伯特·D.卡普兰/译者:赵秀福【完结】 > 巴尔干两千年.txt

第17章.3

作者:美-罗伯特·D卡普兰/译者:赵秀福 当前章节:15459 字 更新时间:2026-6-14 02:46

另外,在长达几个世纪的土耳其人占据时期,希腊人得到了塞尔维亚和俄罗斯的东正教的支持——这是一个有着深远的效果的历史事实。而且,由于从未经历过苏联的占领和共产主义,希腊人对俄罗斯有着某种浪漫的依恋之情,而这种情感在罗马尼亚甚至保加利亚是不存在的。

如果考虑到希腊政府所遭受的左右派的政治压力,可以说它正在竭尽全力支持美国。但是,如果塞尔维亚人羞辱北约的话,希腊人将根据自身利益而采取行动:他们与北约的联系将降低到正式场合下装装样子的状态,尽管他们可能对这一事实本身进行否认,并悄悄地强化与他们在莫斯科和贝尔格莱德的东正教教友的联系。尽管希腊作为北约成员国的身份已经长达47年,我们仍然有可能失去希腊。

良心的吁求无助于保持希腊在北约的位置,无论是把它作为事实上的还是作为法律上的成员国,也同样无助于阻止罗马尼亚和保加利亚滑向俄罗斯的势力范围。现在最迫切需要的绝不是别的,而就是北约的一场完完全全的军事胜利。事实上,尽管希腊人和马其顿的斯拉夫人相互看不起,但作为东正教徒,他们却对信仰伊斯兰教的科索沃人同持蔑视的态度。很难指望这一地区有人对伊斯兰教难民持同情的态度,周边国家已经因政府不得力和失业率居高不下而被压得喘不过气来,难民的涌入进一步干扰了原本就极其脆弱的宗教和民族的平衡。

因此,如果轰炸战不能奏效,北约也放弃在谈判桌上的努力的话,欧洲就会被阻止在中世纪就已形成的阵线之外,结果是,新扩充的北约不过是古老的神圣罗马帝国——就是说,是基督教的西方——的一个变体而已,而在古老的奥斯曼土耳其帝国活动的区域则出现了近东(the Near East)地区,其范围大致是自塞尔维亚和克罗地亚的边界起,到作为少数民族的匈牙利人与罗马尼亚人在特兰西瓦尼亚的交接线为止的地带。

1834年,从哈布斯堡帝国进入塞尔维亚的英国游记作家亚历山大·金莱克(Alexander Kinglake)这样说:“我仿佛来到了这个驱车便到的欧洲的尽头,此刻,我便可以亲眼目睹东方的辉煌与毁灭了。”东西方之间的这同一条分界线将重新出现,除非用空中和地面部队粉碎米洛舍维奇先生的统治,在科索沃和马其顿建立北约的摄政政体。只有西方的帝国主义——尽管很少有人愿意这样称呼它——才能够使欧洲统一起来,并且避免使巴尔干产生混乱。

“解读过度”

《纽约时报》,1999年6月13日 | 阿什哈巴德,土库曼斯坦

我凭个人的经验知道,一本书可以拥有巨大的威力,也可以非常危险。1989年和1990年,我写了一本名为《巴尔干两千年》的游记,记录了我80年代旅居希腊时游历巴尔干半岛的见闻。1993年,南斯拉夫的战争爆发之后,该书就被当作反对美国干预的借口。据说,克林顿总统阅读了这本书,并据此推断,这个地区的各族人民从未享受过长久的和平生活。

如果我像别人一样反对干预的话,这类报道是不会让我感觉烦恼的。但不幸的是——我和别人不一样。从1992年末直到现在(直到眼下我写下这些文字的时刻),我一直是一个毫不含糊的、敢于在公众面前亮明自己观点的干预主义者:关于这一点,任何人只要是询问我,或是注意我在《巴尔干两千年》出版之后在电视上所说的话,都会清楚地明白。

因为,读者也有其责任。目前,我不知道克林顿总统读了什么,没读什么,也不知道什么因素影响了他在巴尔干问题上的决定。但是,一般说来,一个总统必须透过国家利益这个过滤器,来分析他所阅读的关于世界上遥远的地方的任何东西。一个总统决定进行干预,不应当出于同情或厌恶,也不应当因为一个地区的历史有趣或令人厌恶。

他之所以进行干预,只是因为他的国家从中获益:不论是战略上,或是道义上,或是兼而有之。因而,如果一个人支持对一个有着苦难历史的地方进行干预,那么,他至少应当保持清醒,比如,对于塞尔维亚人将如何做出反应,他至少不应当有幻想。

书籍,尤其是游记类书籍,误读的可能性小于误用的可能性。这是因为游记作家被要求记录他对于游历之时当地实际存在的状况——人们对他说了些什么,说话的情景如何——的印象,而不是理想主义者坚持让他去发现的东西。

因为游记作家所写的可能令人感到沮丧,所以他的报道对于那些有孤立主义倾向的人有益,这些人对于来自外国的挑战往往视而不见。而且,不可否认的是,1993年的克林顿总统,正关注美国社会,因而对美国在世界上的位置则较少着意。

当读者对语境缺少了解的时候,书籍就会被误用。读任何领域的第一本书,你都会感到难以招架;但若读到第十本,你就慢慢形成自己的观点,并能对它所有回应,摆正该书的位置。例如,在一个孤独的自修者或一个性格孤僻的人手里,尼采是一个危险的哲学家;但在一个博览群书、酷爱哲学的人手里,尼采就会令人受益颇多。马基雅维利和其他哲学家也是这样。

但是,因为很多读者都对语境缺少了解,所以,作者就有责任在书的开始部分向读者介绍语境——尤其是政策语境。这是我在《巴尔干两千年》中没有做到的,因为我从没有想象到,该书在几近销声匿迹的时刻,竟然被当作一本决策的小册子来读。

但还存在着另外一个问题——那便是把每一本书都当作政治读物的倾向,而说到这里,我们只好回头再谈读者的责任。像其他作家一样,我同时戴着几顶帽子——写这本书时,我就既是游记作家,又是外交事务分析师。我明白,旅游经历是一回事,数年后的军事决策则是另外一回事。太多的评论者在读了他人对某一个地方的描述之后,会情不自禁地认为这种描述是否是“通达的”“不开明的”“宿命论的”“人本主义的”“干预主义的”或“非干预主义的”,而真正的问题却应当是:这些人物和描写生动吗?读者被强烈吸引以至于急切地想读下一页了吗?作者的描述吊起了读者的兴趣以至于想读其他同类的书了吗?以及诸如此类的问题。游记是讲故事的书,而不是政策指导书。

求真务实的人是颇谙此道的。他们不必因为要采取行动而把一个地区、民族或其历史理想化,因此他们没有必要透过他们的意愿这个过滤器去看一本书:不管是1993年的总统想从中寻求袖手旁观的借口,还是1999年的他想从中获得有所企图的灵感。

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