Armelius, B., and K. Armelius, 1974, "The Use of Redundancy in Multiple-cue Judgments: Data
from a Suppressor-variable task. American Journal of Psychology 87: 385-392.
Armelius, K., 1979, "Task Predictability and Performance as Determinants of Confidence in
Multiple-cue Judgments." Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 20: 19-25.
Armstrong, J . Scott, 1978, "Are Econometricians Useful? Folklore Versus Fact." Journal of Business
51(4): 549-564.
, 1981, "How Expert Are the Experts?" Inc., Dec. 1981: 15-16.
Aron, Raymond, 1961, Dimensions de la conscience historique. Paris: Agora.
Arrow, Kenneth, 1987, "Economic Theory and the Postulate of Rationality." In J. Eatwell,
M. Milgate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987, 2: 69-74.
Arthur, Brian W., 1994, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. Ann Arbor:
University of Michigan Press.
Astebro, Thomas, 2003, "The Return to Independent Invention: Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism,
Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?" Economic Journal 113(484): 226-239.
Ashiya, Masahiro, and Takero Doi, 2001, "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists." Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization 46: 343-346.
Attewell, P., 2001, "The Winner-take-all High School: Organizational Adaptations to Educational
Stratification." Sociology of Education 74: 267-295.
Ayache, E., 2004a, "The Back of Beyond," Wilmott (Spring): 26-29.
. 2004b, "A Beginning, in the End," Wilmott (Winter): 6-11.
Ayer, A. J . , 1958, The Problem of Knowledge. London: Penguin Books.
, 1972, Probability and Evidence. New York: Columbia University Press.
, 1988, Voltaire. London: Faber and Faber.
Ayton, P., and A. G. R. McClelland, 1997, "How Real Is Overconfidence?" Journal of Behavioral
Decision Making 10: 153-285.
Baddeley, Alan, 1997, Human Memory: Theory and Practice. London: Psychology Press.
Bak, ?>er, 1996, How Nature Works. New York: Copernicus.
Bak, P., and K. Chen, 1991, "Self-organized criticality." Scientific American 264: 46-53.
Ball, Philip, 2004, Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another. London: Arrow Books.
, 2006, "Econophysics: Culture Crash." Nature 441: 686-688.
Banavar, J . R., F. Colaiori, A. Flammini, A. Maritan, and A. Rinaldo, 2000, "A Topology of the
Fittest Transportation Network." Physical Review Letters 84: 4745-4748.
Barabasi, Albert-Laszl?, 2002, Linked: The New Science of Networks. Boston: Perseus Publishing.
Barabasi, Albert-Laszl?, and Réka Albert, 1999, "Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks."
Science 2^6: 509-512.
Barabasi, Albert-Laszl?, Réka Albert, and H. Jeong, 1999, "Mean-field Theory for Scale-free Random
Networks." Physica A 272: 173-197.
Barabasi, Albert-Laszl?, and Eric Bonabeau, 2003, "Scale-free Networks." Scientific American
288(5): 50-59.
B I B L I O G R A P H Y 3 3 3
Baranski, J. V., and W. M. Petrusic, 1994, "The Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in Perceptual
Judgments." Perception and Psychophysics 55: 412-428.
Barber, B. M., and T. Odean, 1999, "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock
Investment Performance of Individual Investors." Working Paper.
Barbour, A. D., and G. Reinert, 2000, "Small worlds." Preprint cond-mat/0006001 at http://xxx
.lanl.gov.
Bar-Hillel, M., and W. A. Wagenaar, 1991, "The perception of randomness." Advances in Applied
Mathematics 12(4): 428-454.
Baron, Jonathan, 2000, Thinking and Deciding, 3rd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Barron, G., and I. Erev, 2003, "Small Feedback-based Decisions and Their Limited Correspondence
to Description-based Decisions." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16: 215-233.
Barrow, John D., 1998, Impossibility: The Limits of Science and the Science of Limits. London:
Vintage.
Barrow, John D., and Frank J . Tipler, 1986, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle. Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
Barrow-Green, June, 1996, Poincaré and the Three Body Problem. History of Mathematics,
Vol. 11, American Mathematical Society.
Barthélémy, M., and L. A. N. Amaral, 1999, "Small-world Networks: Evidence for a Crossover
Picture." Physical Review Letters 82: 3180-3183.
Bastiat, Frédéric, 1862-1864, Oeuvres complètes de Frédéric Bastiat, 6 vols. Paris: Guillaumin.
Batchelor, R. A., 1990, "All Forecasters Are Equal." Journal of Business and Economie Statistics
8(1): 143-144.
, 2001, "How Useful Are the Forecasts of Intergovernmental Agencies? The IMF and
OECD Versus the Consensus." Applied Economics 33(2): 225-235.
Bates, Elisabeth, 1994, "Modularity, Domain Specificity, and the Development of Language." In
D. C. Gajdusek, G. M. McKhann, and C. L. Bolis, eds., Evolution and Neurology of Language:
Discussions in Neuroscience 10: 1-2, 136-149.
Bauman, A. O., R. B. Deber, and G. G. Thompson, 1991, "Overconfidence Among Physicians and
Nurses: The 'micro certainty, macro certainty' phenomenon." Social Science and Medicine
32:167-174.
Bayer, Hans Christian, 2003, Information: The New Language of Science. London: Orion Books,
Ltd.
Bechara, A., A. R. Damasio, H. Damasio, and S. W. Anderson, 1994, "Insensitivity to Future Consequences
Following Damage to Human Prefrontal Cortex." Cognition 50: 1-3, 7-15.
Becker, Lawrence C , 1998, A New Stoicism. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Bellamy, Edward, 1891, Cent ans après, ou l'an 2000, trad, de l'anglais par Paul Rey; avec une
préf. par M. Théodore Reinach. Paris: E. Dentu.
Benartzi, Shlomo, 2001. "Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company
Stock," Journal of Finance 56(5): 1,747-1,764
Benartzi, Shlomo, and Richard Thaler, 1995, "Myopie Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium
Puzzle." Quarterly Journal of Economies 110(1): 73-92.
Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, 2002, "Euro/dollar: tout le monde peut se tromper. " La Lettre du CEPII
215.
Benkirane, R., 2002, La complexité, vertiges et promesses: 18 histoires de sciences. Paris: Le Pommier.
Berger, Peter L., and Thomas Luckmann, 1966, The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in
the Sociology of Knowledge. New York: Anchor Books.
Bernard, André, 2002, Rotten Rejections: The Letters That Publisher Wish They'd Never Sent.
London: Chrysalis Books.
Bernard, Claude, 1878, La science expérimentale. Paris: J.-B. Baillière.
Bernoulli, Daniel, 1954, "Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk." Econometrica
22(1): 23-36.
Bernstein, Peter L., 1996, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: Wiley.
Berridge, Kent C , 2003, "Irrational Pursuits: Hyper-incentives from a Visceral Brain." In I. Brocas
and J . Carillo, eds., 2003.
3 3 4 BIBLIOGRAPHY
Berry, M., 1978, "Regular and Irregular Motion, in Topics in Nonlinear Mechanics," ed. S. Jorna,
American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings No. 46, 16-120.
Bevan, Edwyn, 1913, Stoics and Sceptics. Chicago: Ares Publishers, Inc.
Bewes, Timothy, 2002, Reification: or The Anxiety of Late Capitalism. London: Verso.
Bewley, Ronald A., and Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002, "On the Herding Instinct of Interest Rate Forecasters."
Empirical Economics 27(3): 403-425.
Bhalla, U. S., and R. Iyengar, 1999, "Emergent Properties of Networks of Biological Signalling
Pathways. Science 283: 381-387.
Bharat, Barot, 2004, "How Accurate are the Swedish Forecasters on GDP-Growth, CPI-Inflation
and Unemployment?, 1993-2001." Brussels Economic ReviewICahier s Economiques de
Bruxelles 47, 2 Editions du DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, 249-278.
Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 1992, "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom,
and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades." Journal of Political Economy 100 (5):
992-1026.
Binmore, K., 1999, "Why Experiment in Economics?" Economic Journal 109(453): 16-24.
Birnbaum, M. H., 1983, "Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab
Problem." American Journal of Psychology 96(1): 85-94.
Bj?rkman, M., 1987, "A Note on Cue Probability Learning: What Conditioning Data Reveal
About Cue Contrast." Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 28: 226-232.
, 1994, "Internal Cue Theory: Calibration and Resolution of Confidence in General
Knowledge." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 58: 386-405.
Bjorkman, M., P. Juslin, and A. Winman, 1993, "Realism of Confidence in Sensory Discrimination:
The Underconfidence Phenomenon." Perception and Psychophysics 54: 75-81.
Blake, Carole, 1999, From Pitch to Publication. London: Pan.
Blake, David, Michael Beenstock, and Valerie Brasse, 1986, "The Performance of UK Exchange
Rate Forecasters." Economic Journal 96(384): 986-999.
Blaug, Mark, 1992, The Methodology of Economics, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Bloch, Marc, 1953, The Historian's Craft. New York: Vintage Books.
Blyth, M. R. Abdelal, and Cr. Parsons, 2005, Constructivist Political Economy. Preprint, forthcoming,
2006: Oxford University Press.
Board, J . , C. Sutcliffe, and E. Patrinos, 2000, "Performance of Covered Calls." European Journal
of Finance 6(1): 1-17.
Bocarra, Nino, 2004, Modeling Complex Systems. Heidelberg: Springer.
Boettke, Peter J . , Christopher J. Coyne, and Peter T. Leeson, 2006, "High Priests and Lowly
Philosophers: The Battle for the Soul of Economics," a forthcoming article in the Case Western
Law Review.
Boots, M., and A. Sasaki, 1999, " 'Small worlds' and the Evolution of Virulence: Infection Occurs
Locally and at a Distance," Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B266: 1933-1938.
Bostrom, Nick, 2002, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy.
London: Routledge.
Bouchaud, J.-P., and M. Potters, 2003, Theory of Financial Risks and Derivatives Pricing:
From Statistical Physics to Risk Management, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Bourdé, Guy, and Hervé Martin, 1989, Les écoles historiques. Paris: éditions du Seuil.
Bourdieu, Pierre, 1992, Les règles de l'art. Paris: éditions du Seuil.
, 1996, Sur la télévision suivi de l'emprise du journalisme. Paris: Raison d'Agir.
—, 2000, Esquisse d'une théorie de la pratique. Paris: éditions de Seuil.
Bouvier, Alban, éd., 1999, Pareto aujourd'hui. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
Boyer, Pascal, 2001, Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of Religious Thought. New
York: Basic Books.
Braudel, Fernand, 1953, "Georges Gurvitch ou la discontinuité du social." Annales E.S.C. 8:
347-361.
, 1969, écrits sur l'histoire. Paris: Flammarion.
, 1985, La Méditerranée: L'espace et l'histoire. Paris: Flammarion.
B I B L I O G R A P H Y 3 3 5
, 1990, écrits sur l'histoire IL Paris: Flammarion.
Braun, P. A., and I. Yaniv, 1992, "A Case Study of Expert Judgment: Economists' Probabilities
Versus Base-rate Model Forecasts." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 5: 217-231.
Brehmer, B., and C. R. B. Joyce, eds., 1988, Human Judgment: The SJT View. Amsterdam: North-
Holland.
Brender, A., and F. Pisani, 2001, Les Marchés et la croissance. Economica.
Brenner, L. A., D. J. Koehler, V. Liberman, and A. Tversky, 1996, "Overconfidence in Probability
and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination." Organizational Behavior and Human
Decision Processes 65: 212-219.
Brocas, I., and J. Carillo, eds., 2003, The Psychology of Economic Decisions, Vol. 1: Rationality
and Well-being. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Brochard, Victor, 1878, De l'erreur. Paris: Université de Paris.
, 1888, Les sceptiques grecs. Paris: Imprimerie Nationale.
Brock, W. A., and P. J . F. De Lima, 1995, "Nonlinear Time Series, Complexity Theory, and Finance."
University of Wisconsin, Madison—Working Papers 9523.
Brock, W. A., D. A. Hsieh, and B. LeBaron, 1991, Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos, and Instability:
Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Brockman, John, 2005, Discussion with Beno?t Mandelbrot, www.edge.org.
Brookes-Gunn, J . , and G. Duncan, 1994, Consequences of Growing Up Poor. New York: Russell
Sage.
Broughton, W, and E. W. Mills, 1980, "Resource Inequality and Accumulative Advantage: Stratification
in the Ministry." Social Forces 58: 1289-1301.
Brugger, P., and R. E. Graves, 1997, "Right Hemispatial Inattention and Magical Ideation."
European Archive of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience 247(1): 55-57.
Bruner, Jerome, 1994, "The 'Remembered' Self." In Ulric Neisser and Robyn Fivush, eds., The Remembering
Self: Construction and Accuracy in the Self-Narrative. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
- , 2002, Making Stories: Law, Literature, Life. New York: Farrar, Straus &c Giroux.
Bruner, Jerome S., and Mary C. Potter, 1964, "Interference in Visual Recognition" Science
144(3617): 424-425.
Brunswik, E., 1952, The Conceptual Framework of Psychology. Chicago: The University of
Chicago Press.
, 1955, "Representative Design and Probabilistic Theory in a Functional Psychology." Psychological
Review 62: 193-217.
Buchanan, Mark, 2001, Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen. New York: Three Rivers Press.
, 2002, Nexus: Small Worlds and the Groundbreaking Theory of Networks. New York:
W. W. Norton and Company.
Budescu, D. V, I. Erev, and T. S. Wallsten, 1997, "On the Importance of Random Error in
the Study of Probability Judgment. Part I: New Theoretical Developments." Journal of
Behavioral Decision Making 10: 157-171.
Buehler, R., D. Griffin, and M. Ross, 2002, "Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences
of Optimistic Time Predictions." In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds.,
2002.
Bundt, Thomas, and Robert P. Murphy, 2006, "Are Changes in Macroeconomic Variables Normally
Distributed? Testing an Assumption of Neoclassical Economics." Preprint, NYU
Economics Department.