Keynes, John Maynard, 179,185,244, 283
Khaldoun, Ibn, 101, 199
Koestler, Arthur, 167
Kolmogorov, Andrey Nikolayevich, 68
Krasnova, Yevgenia Nikolayevna
(fictional character), 23-25, 26, 27,
92, 93-94, 95-96, 122, 223, 299,
300
L
languages, 4, 24, 72, 181, 219, 255
lasers, 135, 169-70, 322
law of large numbers, 238, 244, 259-60,
269, 287
Lebanon, 3, 4, 8, 9,10, 11, 13,15,16,
18,21,40, 65, 79, 118,140,154,
287
INDEX 3 6 3
life expectancy, 159, 321
literature, 222, 253
Livy, 198
Locke's madman, 283, 308
Lorenz, Edward, 179, 196
lottery-ticket fallacy, 73, 77, 118, 206,
207, 308-9
Lucas, Robert, 155
ludic fallacy, 122-37, 207, 225n, 257,
268, 275, 279, 281, 286-89, 309,
319
M
Makridakis, Spyros, 154,155, 269
Mallarmé, Stéphane, 104
Malraux, André, 104
Mandelbrot, Beno?t, 12n, 253-56, 257,
258-59, 260-62, 268-69, 272, 273,
276, 281
Mandelbrotian, 36, 37, 128, 213,
232-34, 251, 256, 257-58, 262,
272-73, 309
Markowitz, Harry, 277
Marmot, Michael, 227-28
Marshall, Andy, 208
Marx, Karl, 12, 101, 171, 199, 241, 242
Matthew effect, 216-17, 320, 324
Mays, Andrew, 208
Mediocristan
absence of Black Swan problem, 49-50
and bell curve, 230, 235-36, 240,
244-45, 250, 251, 269
defined, 26, 309
vs. Extremistan, 33, 34, 35-37, 61, 83,
85, 233-35, 274, 280-81, 284, 320
and gambling, 239
law of large numbers in, 238
in London Business School study, 79,
162
and measurement, 328
and prediction, 149, 159, 211
and Sharpe ratio, 328
and standard deviation, 239-40
and statisticians, 223
and underestimation, 142
visual approach, 259-60
Meehl, Paul, 146
Menodotus of Nicomedia, 46, 182, 199,
314
Merton, Robert C , 278, 279, 279n, 280,
281,282, 283
Merton, Robert K., 216-17, 218, 278
meta-analysis, 75
Michelet, Jules, 101, 198
Michelson, Albert, 173n
mild, 29, 35, 36, 61n, 127-28, 159, 250,
261, 295
Mill, John Stuart, 52
Minsky, Hyman, 78
Mistral, Frédéric, 222
Mittag-Leffer, G?sta, 176
Montaigne, Michel de, 92, 101, 191-92,
296
Moynihan, B., 105n
N
Nabokov, Vladimir, 10
Nader, Ralph, 112
narrative discipline, xxvii, 75, 309
narrative fallacy, 50, 62-84, 120, 153,
154, 155, 187n, 188, 199, 205n,
211,240, 268-69, 309,316
Nash, John, 155
neoclassical economics, 184, 278, 282,
285, 314, 319, 328
nerd knowledge, 180, 309
see also Platonicity
networks, 226, 267, 322, 325
3 6 4 INDEX
Nicolas of Autrecourt, 48
Nietzsche, Friedrich, 6, 131, 132, 296
nightingales, 104, 105
Nobel, Alfred, 277
normal distribution, see Gaussian
distribution
O
Onassis, Aristotle, 143-44
Oppenheimer, J. Robert, 255
options, 205, 282n, 329
Ormerod, Paul, 267
Orwell, George, 162
Oskamp, Stuart, 144
P
Pareto, Vilfredo, 219, 235, 256
Pascal, Biaise, 210
Pasteur, Louis, 170, 208
Paul, D., 105n
Paul, Saint, 5
Peirce, Charles Sanders, 57n, 173
Penzias, Arno, 168
Perec, Georges, 69n
Perse, Saint John, 222
Philnus of Cos, 182
phony mathematics, 136, 275, 277
Plato, xxv, 101
Platonic confirmation, see confirmation
error
Platonic fold, xxi, 19, 129, 284, 309
Platonicity, xxv, 15, 16, 48, 55, 69, 180,
241, 252, 256-62, 268, 285, 289,
291,309,311
Plutarch, 198
Poe, Edgar Allen, xxii
Poincaré, Henri, 174-77, 178-79, 243,
296
Poisson, 239, 326, 327, 329
Popper, Karl Raimund, 57-58, 171,
173, 179, 192-93, 200, 281, 291,
296
Posner, Richard, 240
post-Keynesian, 78, 314
power laws, 37, 219, 234, 235, 257, 263,
266, 267, 318, 321, 322, 324, 325,
326, 327, 328
prediction errors, xx, 148,159-60,
194-95, 205
preferential attachment, 218-19, 221,
222, 250, 325, 326
probability distribution, 36, 269, 309
problem of induction, 27, 40-41, 45, 49,
64, 131,199, 267, 269, 288, 309,
313
problem of the circularity of statistics, see
statistical regress argument
Proudhon, Pierre-Joseph, 101, 171, 241
Prudhomme, Sully, 222
Q
quants, 19-20, 21, 28, 54, 148, 154
Quételet, Adolphe, 241-42
Quine, W. V., 72
R
randomness as incomplete information,
57, 197-98, 309
see also epistemic opacity
Reagan, Ronald, 261
reinsurance, 208n
religion, 4, 11, 48, 208n, 227, 291, 312,
322
Renan, Ernest, 198
retrospective distortion, 8,12, 13, 310,
312,322
reverse-engineering problem, 196, 197,
310,311,312
INDEX 3 6 5
Rimbaud, Arthur, xxii
Rolland, Romain, 222
Rosen, Sherwin, 216
Ross, Steve, 280
round-trip fallacy, 52, 54, 82, 310, 320
Rowling, J. K., 28, 33
Rubinstein, Arthur, 29
Rushdie, Salman, 156
Russell, Bertrand, 40, 201, 210, 244
S
Samuelson, Paul, 184-85, 283, 285
Sartre, Jean-Paul, 104
savants, see idiot savants
scandal of prediction, 138, 203, 310
Scholes, Myron, 278, 279, 279n, 280,
281,282, 287
Schopenhauer, Arthur, 45
Schiitzenberger, Marcel-Paul, 272
scorn of the abstract, xxi, 77, 121, 310
self-organized criticality, 325, 328
Semmelweis, Ignaz, 183
Serapion of Alexandria, 182
serendipity, 166, 170, 204, 209, 321-22,
324
Sextus Empiricus, 46, 83, 192, 204
Shackle, G.L.S., 179, 185
Sharpe, William, 277
Shirer, William, 12-14
Shubik, Martin, 283
Shultz, George, 261
Simenon, Georges, 300
Simon, Saint, 241
Simpson, O. J., 51, 281
Slovic, Paul, 76, 81, 145
Smith, E. J., 42
Snyder, Alan, 66
Spengler, Oswald, 101
Spitznagel, Mark, 127n
stability of species, 108
standard deviation, 239-40, 249-50, 252,
276, 326
Stanzione, Dan, 168
statistical regress argument, 269, 310
Stendhal, 104
Strogatz, Steven, 226
Suetonius, 198
swimmer's body, 109-10
system 1, 81, 82, 83, 133, 159
system 2, 81, 82
T
Tedesco, John-Olivier, 297
Tetlock, Philip, 151, 153, 280
Thorp, Edward O., 279, 282
three body problem, 176-77, 322
Townes, Charles, 169-70
Toynbee, Arnold, 12, 101
Tresser, Charles, 255-56
Trivers, Robert, 147, 195
Tulip, Nero (fictional character), 94-99
Tversky, Amos, 53, 76, 77, 81, 158
Tyszka, Tadeusz, 150
U
Ullmann-Margalit, Edna, xxvii
uncertainty of the deluded, 239, 310
uncertainty of the nerd, 127-29, 309
unknowledge, 138, 185, 198, 329
V
variance, defined, 250
Veyne, Paul, 11
von Neuman, John, 255
W
Wallace, Alfred Russel, 167
Wason, P. C , 58
3 6 6 INDEX
water puddle problem, 267-68
see also reverse-engineering problem
Watson, Thomas, 168
Watts, Duncan, 226
Wegner, Jochen, 57
Whitehead, Alfred North, 181n
Wikipedia, 224n
wild, 35, 36, 64, 116, 128, 213, 251, 254,
295
Willis, J. C.,219
Wilmott, Paul, 196
Wittgenstein, Ludwig, xxvi, 244, 289
writers, 24, 25, 42, 89-90, 103-4, 218,
224n, 312
Y
Yule, G. U., 219, 256
Z
Zielonka, Piotr, 150
Zipf, George, 219, 256
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB, part literary essayist, part empiricist,
part no-nonsense trader, has devoted his life to immersing himself in
problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge.
Taleb was born into a Greek-Orthodox family in Lebanon. He
worked as a derivatives trader on his own and with Wall Street firms
and as a floor trader in the Chicago pits before opting for more contemplative,
and what he calls "nontransactional," pursuits. He has
an M.B.A. from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University
of Paris. While trading, he taught the application of probability theory
to risk management for seven years (part-time) at the Courant
Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He is
currently taking a break from active life by serving as the Dean's
Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts
at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness,
has been published in twenty languages (even French). Taleb
lives mostly in New York.
ABOUT THE T Y PE
This book was set in Sabon, a typeface designed by the well-known
German typographer Jan Tschichold (1902-74). Sabon's design is
based upon the original letter forms of Claude Garamond and was
created specifically to be used for hand composition, Linotype, and
Monotype. Tschichold named his typeface for the famous Frankfurt
typefounder Jacques Sabon, who died in 1580.
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