饭饭TXT > 海外名作 > 《动荡年代/The Age of Turbulence(英文版)》作者:[美]阿伦·格林斯潘【完结】 > The Age of Turbulence .txt

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作者:美-阿伦·格林斯潘 当前章节:15394 字 更新时间:2026-6-19 14:32

amounts of market value. In global markets, the difference between a right

move and an almost right move might represent hundreds of millions of

dollars, whereas a generation ago, when the playing field was much smaller,

the difference would have been in the tens of millions. Boards reflecting

this view feel pressed by competition to seek the "very best" CEO and are

obviously willing to pay what it takes to acquire the "stars."

A CEO's compensation has, on average, been tied closely to the market

value of his or her firm. The average market capitalization of an S&P 500

corporation rose from less than $2 billion in 1980 to $26 billion in 2006.

The average market value of the ten largest S&P 500 companies in 2006

was $260 billion. CEO compensation at such large U.S. corporations reportedly

rose by 10 percent annually between 1993 and 2006,* triple the

3.1 percent annual increase of earnings of private-company production or

nonsupervisory workers. In short, virtually all of the gap between CEO and

worker pay reflects increasing corporate value driven by market forces. But

that is CEO compensation on average. Hidden in the average are a large

number of outliers. I suspect much of the visibly egregious "unearned" CEO

compensation results from the need to set executive salaries in advance of

performance. Even the most perceptive boards make regrettable choices

some of the time, and those mistakes show up as hefty compensation paid

for demonstrably inferior outcomes.

In my experience, another significant factor in excess CEO compensation

occurs as a result of a general rise in stock prices, over which the average

CEO has no control. A company's share price, and hence the value of

related options, is heavily influenced by economy-wide forces—by changes

in interest rates, inflation, and myriad other factors wholly unrelated to the

success or failure of a particular corporate strategy. There have been more

than a few dismaying examples of CEOs who nearly drove their companies

to the wall and presided over significant declines in the prices of their

stocks relative to those of competitors and the stock market overall. The

Ther e are arguably other factors in play. But global competition cannot be a major contributor

because executive salaries in Europe and Japan have not gone up nearly as much as those in the

United States. The argument that corporate boards are made up of cronies may explain the

level of corporate compensation but not its accelerated pace in recent years. Corporate cronyism,

if anything, was greater in years past.

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CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

CEOs nonetheless reaped large rewards because the strong performance of

the stock market as a whole pulled up the prices of the forlorn companies'

stocks.*

Using stock or options to compensate top executives should require

that rewards reflect the success or failure of management's decisions. Grants

of stock or options in lieu of cash could be used more effectively by tying

such grants to measures of the firm's performance relative to a carefully

chosen group of competitors over time. Some corporations do tie the value

of stock and option grants to relative performance, but most do not.+

If the gap in CEO compensation relative to that of company workers,

which reached its widest point in 2000, resumes its increase, I hope shareholders

will look beyond their focus on investment returns and pay attention

to CEO compensation. If compensation is inappropriate, it is their

pockets that are being picked. There is no role here for government wage

control. Taxpayer funds are not involved.

I was aware of the tendency toward "excess" compensation a generation

ago. I recall a discussion of the salaries of the senior officers of Mobil

Corporation at a compensation-committee meeting in the early 1980s.

Management had hired Graef "Bud" Crystal, a well-known executive compensation

consultant, to "assist" the committee in determining appropriate

salary levels.* He put up a series of charts showing that the salaries of Mobil's

top officers were only average relative to their corporate peers'. Obviously,

Crystal asserted, Mobil would want its executive salaries to be above

average. That prompted my fellow director, American Express CEO Howard

Clark, to ask with a twinkle in his eye, "Bud, do you recommend that

all corporate executives' pay be above the corporate executive pay average?"

I chimed in, suggesting that Bud's regression analysis of competitive

executive compensation was flawed. In the end, the top Mobil executives

*An individual company's stock value competes with all others for the portfolio choice of investors.

Therefore, if one or more companies do well and their stock prices rise, the stock prices

of less well-performing companies appear more attractive, relatively. This is why price movements

of wholly unrelated stocks exhibit significant correlations.

tStock options are subject to seemingly continuing abuse, as the predating-of-options scandal

of the fall of 2006 demonstrated.

tin a reversal in later years, Crystal became a critic of the process of determining corporate

compensation.

427

THE AGE OF TURBULENCE

got much but probably not all of what they had contemplated when they

sicced Bud on the committee.

But even with increasing conformity and comity in CEO-appointed

boards during most of the twentieth century dissonance did arise on occasion

to alter the direction of a company toward a better use of its resources.

Shortly before I left for the Fed, I joined the majority of Alcoa directors in

a rebellion against CEO Charles Parry who was pressing the board to elevate

chief operating officer C. Fred Fetterolf to succeed him upon retirement.

There was no question of Fetterolf s superb understanding of the

internal technical aspects of the company but a number of us outside directors

thought he lacked the broad global perspective that Alcoa was going to

need in the following decade. The dissidents, led by W. H. Krome George,

a former Alcoa chairman, and including me, Paul Miller of First Boston, Paul

O'Neill, president of International Paper, and others, met one evening at

the Links Club in New York and concluded that we had to counter Charlie's

choice of Fred with an alternative. We surveyed the table and settled on

O'Neill, my old friend and collaborator in the Ford administration. Support

from most of the rest of the board and a little arm-twisting of Paul launched

him on a very successful career as Alcoa's chairman until George W. Bush

prevailed on him to become secretary of the treasury in 2001.*

Over my quarter century as an active board member, I observed that,

among large corporations, the CEO, who chose directors, generally sought

demonstrably qualified people, often CEOs of other corporations. However,

I could not always tell if high-level boards were chosen for their knowledge

and advice or if the CEO needed to give the appearance of plurality to

what was in reality an authoritarian corporate regime. Likely, it was both.

Despite its all too obvious shortcomings, U.S. corporate governance

over the past century must have had something to recommend it. For were

it otherwise, the U.S. economy could hardly have risen to its current state

of world economic leadership. There can be no doubt that American corporate

business has been highly productive and profitable. It has been at

the cutting edge of much of the past century's technology. This, along with

my observations of a quarter century of board experience, has led me to

*In any event, Paul O'Neill was about to retire and turn over the reins to Alain Belda.

428

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

conclude, however reluctantly that if owners are no longer the managers,

CEO control and the authoritarianism it breeds are probably the only way

to run an enterprise successfully There do not appear to be credible alternatives

to placing the power of governance in the hands of the CEO and

trusting that even his handpicked directors will hold him to task, or, if they

prove unable or unwilling, that corporate raiders will take over and revamp

management.

When the scandals broke, first at Enron, then at WorldCom, I was a little

relieved that the authoritarian nature of modern corporate governance

did not become an issue, although there was a great deal of justified concern

about the corporate abuses that authoritarianism fostered. Accounting

fraud took center stage. What everyone was about to learn was that modern

corporate accounting is largely based on a series of forecasts that do not

necessarily have to reflect a company's history. This means that a significant

part of corporate reporting involves wide discretion and, too often, is susceptible

to abuse. For example, the calculated pension liability and consequent

charges against income require a number of uncertain projections,

which offer a wide range of potential pension costs, all reasonably defendable.

A bank that receives a monthly mortgage payment cannot know for

certain until the loan is repaid in full or defaults whether a given payment

from the borrower constitutes interest or a return of principal. Depreciation

charges to reflect the decline in economic value of fixed assets are understandably

subject to broad discretion, depending on how rapidly facilities

are expected to be made obsolete by technological advance. No wonder

many corporate managements, running into competitive difficulties, tended

to favorably bias their results to the edge of outright fraud. Some clearly

went over the line. But accounting discretion can cover up only so much.

The roof eventually had to fall in. And it did.

In the aftermath of the Enron and WorldCom scandals, the power of the

corporate CEO has been diminished and that of the board of directors and

shareholders enhanced. As the scandals unfolded, the tone of board meetings

changed. When the CEO entered a board meeting in 2002, the joke went, he

wondered if the first item on the agenda would be a request for his resignation.

The dark humor darkened further. Another saying of that year was that

the average CEO spent half his time with his general counsel, discussing how

429

THE AGE OF TURBULENCE

to keep them both out of jail. Exaggeration? Of course. But dark humor is

too often very close to reality. Everyone agreed that the CEO was spending

less time productively expanding the business.

Enron and WorldCom officers' theft of shareholders' assets created a

political firestorm. An anticorporate populism had been lurking under the

surface of American politics at least since the age of the Robber Barons of

the latter part of the nineteenth century. Hastily deliberated and overwhelmingly

approved, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act became law in 2002. To my

surprise, it included useful reforms. One requires the CEO to attest that; in

his or her judgment, the company's accounts truly reflect the value of the

firm. Never mind generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and

Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules; forget IRS and SEC

legalisms; the question to the CEO is: Do your company's books, to the

best of your knowledge, accurately reflect the corporation's underlying financial

state?

This requirement also resolved for me the very thorny issue of whether

the principles-based international accounting standards or the rules-based

U.S. FASB and GAAP standards were a more effective way for a company

to convey its corporate results. The Sarbanes-Oxley sign-off requirement

for chief executives and chief financial officers bypassed the complexity of

such judgments. It placed the responsibility of interpretation of financial

results where it belongs. If the CEO was given the legal discretion to choose

the accounting system and held accountable for the results, the shareholders

would be best served.

But it has become clear, especially in retrospect, that by increasing the

regulatory burden, Sarbanes-Oxley has decreased U.S. competitive flexibility.

Section 404 has proved particularly cumbersome—it requires certain

accounting best practices to be enforced by the companies' auditors, who

in turn are overseen by a new agency, the Public Company Accounting

Oversight Board (PCAOB). The acronym was soon pronounced "peek-aboo,"

connoting clandestine surveillance. The new agency was not amused.

Today, after several years of implementation, few in the business community

would argue that the cost and effort of implementing Section 404,

not to mention the diversion of corporate management from business-

expanding initiatives, have created a net plus for either their company or

430

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

the U.S. economy as a whole. Overall, Sarbanes-Oxley is proving unnecessarily

burdensome, but just as important, it is premised on certain myths

about what level of governance is achievable.

Sarbanes-Oxley has highlighted the role of a company's audit committee

and required that its chairman have professional qualifications. The implication

is that this souped-up committee will have the ability to ferret

out corporate wrongdoing, especially fraud, and present to shareholders a

more accurate financial statement than was done in the past. In my more

than eighteen years as a bank regulator, I recall very few instances of a bank

regulator unearthing fraud or embezzlement through the examination process,

souped-up or otherwise. While admittedly bank supervision isn't looking

for criminal activity, the Fed's bank examiners nonetheless twice gave

high grades to a Japanese bank branch in New York that for years had harbored

a large ongoing embezzlement. A whistle-blower finally exposed the

crimes. Indeed, very few regulators of my acquaintance can give me examples

of fraud and embezzlement unearthed by anyone other than a whistle-

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