饭饭TXT > 海外名作 > 《动荡年代/The Age of Turbulence(英文版)》作者:[美]阿伦·格林斯潘【完结】 > The Age of Turbulence .txt

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作者:美-阿伦·格林斯潘 当前章节:15363 字 更新时间:2026-6-19 14:32

blower. I readily grant that pre-Sarbanes-Oxley audit committees were not

great discoverers of executive wrongdoing. But in truth, there is no way for

an audit committee, new or old, to uncover wrongdoing short of deploying

a vast army of investigators who would smother the firm with costly oversight

that would likely stifle corporate risk taking and ultimately threaten

the viability of the company.

Other Sarbanes-Oxley provisions extol the "independent" director.

Somehow, it is argued, competing voices will keep management honest. In

practice, directors who are independent of management tend to have very

little experience in the business they have been appointed to oversee. They

are not likely to know what type of chicanery is possible. I always thought

President Roosevelt had it right when asked how he could appoint Joseph P.

Kennedy, a Wall Street speculator (and father of JFK), as the first chairman

of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Wasn't it the classic case of the

fox guarding the henhouse? Roosevelt replied, "Set a thief to catch a thief."

A corporation can have only one strategy. Competing "independent"

voices with wholly different agendas undermine the effectiveness of the

CEO and the rest of the corporate board. I have served on boards with dissident

directors. Only business that was legally required at board meetings

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got done. Missing from those meetings was the useful exchange of ideas

that inform the corporate strategies of the CEO. With dissident directors—

such as those who represent potential investors seeking to take over a

company—human nature being what it is, most interchange between CEO-

supporting directors and incumbent corporate management occurs outside

the boardroom.

I do not wish to cast aspersions on the corporate takeover. On the contrary,

it is a key facilitator of creative destruction, and doubtless the most

effective remaining means by which shareholder voices can mold a corporation.

But while change in management is often necessary, you cannot effectively

run a corporation with differing authoritative voices espousing

opposing corporate goals. It has to be one or the other. If the board is riven

with conflicting interests, corporate governance will suffer. If directors cannot

agree with the CEO's strategy, they should replace him. Corporate dissonance,

of course, is unavoidable in periods of transition. But it is not a

value to be pursued for its own sake. A cacophony produces only red ink.

The notion of enlisting representatives of a corporation's various stakeholders

on the board—unions, community representatives, customers, suppliers,

and so forth—has a nice democratic ring to it. But it is ill-advised and

I strongly suspect it will not work. Today's highly competitive world needs

each corporation to execute plans from a single coach, as it were. A vote by

the whole team on each big play is a recipe for defeat. I assume that eventually

some of the more abrasive edges of Sarbanes-Oxley, especially Section

404, will be honed down.

As good as American corporate governance, with all its warts, has

proved to be over the decades, adjustments to the ever-changing global environment

have exposed gaps that require attention. Accurate accounting

is central to the functioning of free-market capitalism. If the signals engendering

allocation of a nation's resources are distorted, the markets will be

less effective in fostering rising standards of living. Capitalism expands

wealth primarily through creative destruction—the process by which the

cash flow from obsolescent, low-return capital coupled with new savings is

invested in high-return, cutting-edge technologies. But for that process to

function, markets need reliable data to gauge the return on assets.

Stock-option expensing is a case in point. In 2002,1 joined the battle

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over this arcane, but critical, aspect of the dot-com boom of the 1990s. My

good friend Warren Buffett, no neophyte in corporate evaluation, had

joined the fray earlier. High-tech corporations in particular were engaged in

a massive shift from paying wages, which subtracted from net income, to

granting stock options, which at that time did not. This made a large difference

in the results of some companies. In 2005, for example, Intel reported

a net profit of $8.7 billion; by Intel's own reckoning, if the cost of options

had been factored in, that figure would have been $1.3 billion smaller. I

argued that options, which attracted skilled people—real resources—to a

corporation, were, in principle, indistinguishable from cash wages or other

forms of payment.

Accurate profit evaluation requires accurate cost accounting. Labor costs

need to be recorded correctly or corporate management will be misled as

to whether a corporate strategy is paying off. Whether it is paid as cash, an

option grant, or access to the executive dining room should be of no consequence.

The corporation needs to know the market value of the newly

hired employee. The employee, by accepting a compensation package (including

options), is effectively setting his market wage. And that market

wage conveys the price of the labor resources required to produce a profit.

In an economy as large, diverse, and complex as ours, the accurate measurement

of corporate performance is essential if our nation's resources are

to be directed to their most efficient uses. Accurate input costs are essential

for determining whether the corporation earns a profit from its current activities.

Changes in balance-sheet valuations based on uncertain forecasts

have become an increasingly important element in determining whether a

particular corporate strategy has been successful. The basic principle of

measuring profit as the value of output less the value of input is not altered

by the complexity of measurement.

To assume that option grants are not an expense is to assume that the

real resources that contributed to the creation of the value of the output

were free. Surely the shareholders who granted options to employees do

not consider the potential dilution of their share in the market capitalization

of the corporation as having no cost to them.

Options are important to the venture-capital industry, and many in

high-tech industries argued strenuously against making any changes to

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THE AGE OF TURBULENCE

then-current practices. They maintained that the use of options is an exceptionally

valuable compensation mechanism (correct); that recognizing

an expense associated with these grants would reduce the use of options,*

harming high-tech companies (possibly); that the effect of options on "fully

diluted earnings per share" is already recognized (irrelevant);+ and that we

cannot measure the costs of options with sufficient accuracy to justify their

recognition on financial statements (wrong).*

This seemingly arcane accounting matter is, in fact, critically important

for the accurate representation of corporate performance. Some thought

not having to expense option grants was a major aid in raising capital to finance

the rapid exploitation of advanced technologies. While the vital contribution

of new technology to the growth of our economy is evident to all,

not all new ideas create value on net. Not all new ideas should be financed.

During the dot-com boom, substantial capital was wasted on enterprises

whose prospects appeared more promising than they turned out to be.

Waste is an inevitable by-product of the risk taking that generates the

growth in our economy. However, the amount of waste becomes unnecessarily

large when the earnings reports that help investors allocate investment

are inaccurate.

Stock-option grants, properly constructed, can be highly effective in

aligning the interests of corporate officers with those of shareholders. Regrettably,

many of the particular grants were constructed to be self-serving.

I guess I shouldn't have been surprised when high-tech industry lobbying

phalanxes found their way to the Fed. I had several visits from groups of

CEOs, often led by the canny Craig Barrett of Intel. The visiting CEOs had

not counted on my quarter century of experience as a corporate director. I

*This would be true if the option recipient had been fooled as to the company's true profit

performance.

tThis adjustment corrects only the denominator (the number of shares) of the earnings-pershare

ratio. It is the estimation of the numerator (earnings) that the accounting dispute is all

about. Option grants do have the potential of increasing the number of shares outstanding and

accordingly, decreasing earnings per share.

+The means of estimating option expense is approximate. But so is a good deal of all other

earnings estimation. Moreover, unless options are expensed, every corporation already implicitly

reports an estimate of option expense on its income statement. That number for most companies,

of course, is exactly zero. Were option grants truly without value or cost to the firm?

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enjoyed countering their arguments. I often was tempted to ask Craig,

whom I had gotten to respect and like, or any of the lobbyists for one cause

or another who arrived on my doorstep: "If I could convince you that your

arguments are wrong, would you be allowed, in your current employment,

to change your view?" I never asked. It wasn't necessary. I was in the same

position in 1994 when I engaged China's then premier Li Peng in a debate

on capitalism versus communism (see chapter 14).

The argument in favor of expensing options eventually prevailed. In

December 2004, the FASB changed its rules to require expensing of stock-

option grants starting in 2005. The new rules went into place only after

nearly being blocked by Congress, responding to the arguments of high-

tech entrepreneurs.

Even before the scandals of 2002, there was much political angst about

the rise in executive compensation in comparison to the pay of the average

production worker. As I explain in chapter 25, the inexorable growth in the

proportion of our GDP that is conceptual, especially technological, has increased

the value of intellectual power relative to the value of human

brawn many times over many generations. I am old enough to remember

when physical prowess on the job was the source of legend and reverence.

A large statue of Paul Bunyan, the mythical logger, still oversees the northern

Minnesota lake country. Stevedores of a century ago were extolled for

their brute strength. Today, the activities once carried out by stevedores are

often run by young women at a computer console.

Relative compensation in our society is market determined, and reflects

the value preferences of all participants in our economy. Is there a

better arbiter? An equally consistent, but never successfully applied, standard

is that all workers should share equally in the results of their collective

efforts. By that ethos, all wage disparities are unjust. But averring that a

certain set of income disparities is too large or too small requires a standard

by which to judge. "Too large" accepts the premise that inequality at some

level is justified. Why shouldn't it be lower? Or higher, for that matter?

I argue in chapter 21 that income disparities are politically destabilizing

to society. But a cure that involves government wage controls, as opposed,

for example, to helping lower-wage workers acquire more valuable

skills, is too often worse than the disease. Even given the flawed aspects of

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THE AGE OF TURBULENCE

corporate governance, executive salaries are ultimately and, one must assume,

voluntarily assented to by the company's shareholders. As I noted

earlier, there should be no role for government in this transaction. Wage

control, like price control, invariably leads to grave unexpected distortions.

G

G

iven the shareholder-management divide, the autocratic-CEO para

digm appears to be the only arrangement that allows for the effective

functioning of a corporation. We cannot get around the authoritarian im

perative of today's corporate structure. But we can make sure nonperform

ing CEOs are removed, if not by current shareholders, then by making

takeovers easier. A step in that direction would be to ease the rules of ac

cess to shareholder lists, currently largely controlled by incumbent manage

ment. Shareholders who seek anonymity can be protected by listing in

street names.* Mergers, acquisitions, and spin-offs are a vital part of compe

tition and creative destruction. The emergence of private equity funds ap

pears to be a market response to the unwillingness of pension funds

and other large institutional investors to engage in the owner oversight of

corporate management that was a hallmark of earlier generations. Private

equity funds investing in undervalued assets, and thereby achieving above-

average rates of return on capital, furnish evidence that the capital had not

been allocated appropriately in our economy. Shifting those assets to inves

tors who manage them appropriately contributes to economic growth. En

hanced shareholder control would no doubt limit management's self-serving

"golden parachutes," outsized bonuses, backdating of options, and postem

ployment perks now provided at the shareholders' expense.

Ultimate control of American corporations by their shareholders is essential

to our market capitalist system. In corporations, as in most other

human institutions, delegation of authority leads to a degree of authoritarianism.

The proper balancing of effective control in governing corporations

will never be wholly without controversy.

*"Street name" is the expression used when securities are held in the name of a broker or other

nominee, rather than that of the shareholder.

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