horizontal and collaborative ones.
"Globalization is the word we came up with to describe the changing relationships
between governments and big businesses," said David Rothkopf, a former senior
Department of Commerce official in the Clinton administration and now a private
strategic consultant. "But whatis going on today is a much broader, much more profound
phenomenon." It is not simply about how governments, business, and people communicate,
not just about how organizations interact, but is about the emergence of completely
new social, political, and business models. "It is about things that impact some of
the deepest, most ingrained aspects of society right down to the nature of the social
contract," added Rothkopf. "What happens if the political entity in which you are
located no longer corresponds to a job that takes place in cyberspace, or no longer
really encompasses workers collaborating with other workers in different corners of
the globe, or no longer really captures products produced in multiple places
simultaneously? Who regulates the work? Who taxes it? Who should benefit from those
taxes?"
If I am right about the flattening of the world, it will be remembered as one of those
fundamental changes-like the rise of the nation-state or the Industrial
Revolution-each of which, in its day, noted Rothkopf,
produced changes in the role of individuals, the role and form of governments, the
way we innovated, the way we conducted business, the role of women, the way we fought
wars, the way we educated ourselves, the way religion responded, the way art was
expressed, the way science and research were conducted, not to mention the political
labels we assigned to ourselves and to our opponents. "There are certain pivot points
or watersheds in history that are greater than others because the changes they
produced were so sweeping, multifaceted, and hard to predict at the time," Rothkopf
said.
If the prospect of this flattening-and all of the pressures, dislocations, and
opportunities accompanying it-causes you unease about the future, you are neither
alone nor wrong. Whenever civilization has gone through one of these disruptive,
dislocating technological revolutions- like Gutenberg's introduction of the printing
press-the whole world has changed in profound ways. But there is something about the
flattening of the world that is going to be qualitatively different from other such
profound changes: the speed and breadth with which it is taking hold. The introduction
of printing happened over a period of decades and for a long time affected only a
relatively small part of the planet. Same with the Industrial Revolution. This
flattening process is happening at warp speed and directly or indirectly touching
a lot more people on the planet at once. The faster and broader this transition to
a new era, the more likely is the potential for disruption, as opposed to an orderly
transfer of power from the old winners to the new winners.
To put it another way, the experiences of the high-tech companies in the last few
decades who failed to navigate the rapid changes brought about in their marketplace
by these types of forces may be a warning to all the businesses, institutions, and
nation-states that are now facing these inevitable, even predictable, changes but
lack the leadership, flexibility, and imagination to adapt-not because they are not
smart or aware, but because the speed of change is simply overwhelming them.
And that is why the great challenge for our time will be to absorb these changes in
ways that do not overwhelm people but also do not leave them behind. None of this
will be easy. But this is our task. It
47
is inevitable and unavoidable. It is the ambition of this book to offer a framework
for how to think about it and manage it to our maximum benefit.
I have shared with you in this chapter how I personally discovered that the world
is flat. The next chapter details how it got that way.
::::: TWO
The Ten Forces That Flattened the World
The Bible tells us that God created the world in six days and on the seventh day he
rested. Flattening the world took a little longer. The world has been flattened by
the convergence often major political events, innovations, and companies. None of
us has rested since, or maybe ever will again. This chapter is about the forces that
flattened the world and the multiple new forms and tools for collaboration that this
flattening has created.
Flattener #1
11/9/89 When the Walls Came Down and the Windows Went Up
The first time I saw the Berlin Wall, it already had a hole in it. It was December
1990, and I was traveling to Berlin with the reporters covering Secretary of State
James A. Baker III. The Berlin Wall had been breached a year earlier, on November
9, 1989. Yes, in a wonderful kabbalistic accident of dates, the Berlin Wall fell on
11/9. The wall, even in its punctured and broken state, was still an ugly scar across
Berlin. Secretary Baker was making his first visit to see this crumbled monument to
Soviet communism. I was standing next to him with a small group of reporters. "It
was a foggy, overcast day," Baker recalled in
49
his memoir, The Politics of Diplomacy, "and in my raincoat, I felt like a character
in a John leCarre novel. But as I peered through a crack in the Wall [near the Reichstag]
and saw the high-resolution drabness that characterizes East Berlin, I realized that
the ordinary men and women of East Germany, peacefully and persistently, had taken
matters into their own hands. This was their revolution." After Baker finished looking
through the wall and moved along, we reporters took turns peering through the same
jagged concrete hole. I brought a couple of chunks of the wall home for my daughters.
I remember thinking how unnatural it looked-indeed, what a bizarre thing it was, this
cement wall snaking across a modern city for the sole purpose of preventing the people
on the other side from enjoying, even glimpsing, freedom.
The fall of the Berlin Wall on 11/9/89 unleashed forces that ultimately liberated
all the captive peoples of the Soviet Empire. But it actually did so much more. It
tipped the balance of power across the world toward those advocating democratic,
consensual, free-market-oriented governance, and away from those advocating
authoritarian rule with centrally planned economies. The Cold War had been a struggle
between two economic systems-capitalism and communism-and with the fall of the wall,
there was only one system left and everyone had to orient himself or herself to it
one way or another. Henceforth, more and more economies would be governed from the
ground up, by the interests, demands, and aspirations of the people, rather than from
the top down, by the interests of some narrow ruling clique. Within two years, there
was no Soviet Empire to hide behind anymore or to prop up autocratic regimes in Asia,
the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America. If you were not a democracy or a
democratizing society, if you continued to hold fast to highly regulated or centrally
planned economics, you were seen as being on the wrong side of history.
For some, particularly among the older generations, this was an unwelcome
transformation. Communism was a great system for making people equally poor. In fact,
there was no better system in the world for that than communism. Capitalism madepeople
unequally rich, and for some who were used to the plodding, limited, but secure
Socialist
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lifestyle-where a job, a house, an education, and a pension were all guaranteed, even
if they were meager-the fall of the Berlin Wall was deeply unsettling. But for many
others, it was a get-out-of-jail-free card. That is why the fall of the Berlin Wall
was felt in so many more places than just Berlin, and why its fall was such a
world-flattening event.
Indeed, to appreciate the far-reaching flattening effects of the fall of the Berlin
Wall, it's always best to talk to non-Germans or non-Russians. Tarun Das was heading
the Confederation of Indian Industry when the wall fell in Berlin, and he saw its
ripple effect felt all the way to India. "We had this huge mass of regulation and
controls and bureaucracy," he recalled. "Nehru had come to power [after the end of
British colonial rule] and had a huge country to manage, and no experience of running
a country. The U.S. was busy with Europe and Japan and the Marshall Plan. So Nehru
looked north, across the Himalayas, and sent his team of economists to Moscow. They
came back and said that this country [the Soviet Union] was amazing. They allocate
resources, they give licenses, there is a planning commission that decides everything,
and the country moves. So we took that model and forgot that we had a private sector . . .
That private sector got put under this wall of regulation. By 1991, the private sector
was there, but under wraps, and there was mistrust about business. They made profits!
The entire infrastructure from 1947 to 1991 was government-owned . . . [The burden
of state ownership] almost bankrupted the country. We were not able to pay our debts.
As a people, we did not have self-confidence. Sure, we might have won a couple of
wars with Pakistan, but that did not give the nation confidence."
In 1991, with India running out of hard currency, Manmohan Singh, the finance minister
at that time (and now the prime minister), decided that India had to open its economy.
"Our Berlin Wall fell," said Das, "and it was like unleashing a caged tiger. Trade
controls were abolished. We were always at 3 percent growth, the so-called Hindu rate
of growth-slow, cautious, and conservative. To make [better returns], you had to go
to America. Well, three years later [after the 1991 reforms] we were at 7 percent
rate of growth. To hell with poverty! Now to make it you could stay in India and become
one of Forbes's richest people in the world ... All the years of socialism and controls
had taken us downhill to
51
the point where we had only $ 1 billion in foreign currency. Today we have $ 118
billion . . . We went from quiet self-confidence to outrageous ambition in a decade."
The fall of the Berlin Wall didn't just help flatten the alternatives to free-market
capitalism and unlock enormous pent-up energies for hundreds of millions of people
in places like India, Brazil, China, and the former Soviet Empire. It also allowed
us to think about the world differently-to see it as more of a seamless whole. Because
the Berlin Wall was not only blocking our way; it was blocking our sight-our ability
to think about the world as a single market, a single ecosystem, and a single community.
Before 1989, you could have an Eastern policy or a Western policy, but it was hard
to think about having a "global" policy. Amartya Sen, the Nobel Prize-winning Indian
economist now teaching at Harvard, once remarked to me that "the Berlin Wall was not
only a symbol of keeping people inside East Germany-it was a way of preventing a kind
of global view of our future. We could not think globally about the world when the
Berlin Wall was there. We could not think about the world as a whole." There is a
lovely story in Sanskrit, Sen added, about a frog that is born in a well and stays
in the well and lives its entire life in the well. "It has a worldview that consists
of the well," he said. "That was what the world was like for many people on the planet
before the fall of the wall. When it fell, it was like the frog in the well was suddenly
able to communicate with frogs in all the other wells... If I celebrate the fall of
the wall, it is because I am convinced of how much we can learn from each other. Most
knowledge is learning from the other across the border."
Yes, the world became a better place to live in after 11/9, because each outbreak
of freedom stimulated another outbreak, and that process in and of itself had a
flattening effect across societies, strengthening those below and weakening those
above. "Women's freedom," noted Sen, citing just one example, "which promotes women's
literacy, tends to reduce fertility and child mortality and increase the employment
opportunities for women, which then affects the political dialogue and gives women
the opportunity for a greater role in local self-government."
Finally, the fall of the wall did not just open the way for more people
to tap into one another's knowledge pools. It also paved the way for the adoption
of common standards-standards onhow economies should be run, onhow accounting should
be done, on how banking should be conducted, on how PCs should be made, and on how
economics papers should be written. I discuss this more later, but suffice it to say
here that common standards create a flatter, more level playing field. To put it
another way, the fall of the wall enhanced the free movement of best practices. When
an economic or technological standard emerged and proved itself on the world stage,
it was much more quickly adopted after the wall was out of the way. In Europe alone,
the fall of the wall opened the way for the formation of the European Union and its
expansion from fifteen to twenty-five countries. That, in combination with the advent
of the euro as a common currency, has created a single economic zone out of a region
once divided by an Iron Curtain.
While the positive effects of the wall coming down were immediately apparent, the
cause of the wall's fall was not so clear. There was no single cause. To some degree
the termites just ate away at the foundations of the Soviet Union, which were already
weakened by the system's own internal contradictions and inefficiencies; to some
degree the Reagan administration's military buildup in Europe forced the Kremlin to
bankrupt itself paying for warheads; and to some degree Mikhail Gorbachev's hapless
efforts to reform something that was unreformable brought communism to an end. But