if I had to point to one factor as first among equals, itwas the information revolution
that began in the early-to mid-1980s. Totalitarian systems depend on a monopoly of
information and force, and too much information started to slip through the Iron
Curtain, thanks to the spread of fax machines, telephones, and other modern tools
of communication.
A critical mass of IBM PCs, and the Windows operating system that brought them to
life, came together in roughly this same time period that the wall fell, and their
diffusion put the nail in the coffin of communism, because they vastly improved
horizontal communication-to the detriment of the exclusively top-down form that
communism was based upon. They also greatly enhanced personal information gathering
and personal empowerment. (Each component of this information revolu
tion was brought about by separate evolutions: The phone network evolved from the
desire of people to talk to each other over long distances. The fax machine evolved
as a way to transmit written communication over the phone network. The PC was diffused
by the original killer apps-spreadsheets and word processing. And Windows evolved
out of the need to make all of this usable, and programmable, by the masses.)
The first IBM PC hit the markets in 1981. At the same time, many computer scientists
around the world had started using these things called the Internet and e-mail. The
first version of the Windows operating system shipped in 1985, and the real
breakthrough version that made PCs truly user-friendly-Windows 3.0-shipped on May
22, 1990, only six months after the wall went down. In this same time period, some
people other than scientists started to discover that if they bought a PC and a dial-up
modem, they could connect their PCs to their telephones and send e-mails through
private Internet service providers-like CompuServe and America Online.
"The diffusion of personal computers, fax machines, Windows, and dial-up modems
connected to a global telephone network all came together in the late 1980s and early
1990s to create the basic platform that started the global information revolution,"
argued Craig J. Mundie, the chief technology officer for Microsoft. The key was the
melding of them all together into a single interoperable system. That happened, said
Mundie, once we had in crude form a standardized computing platform-the IBM PC-along
with a standardized graphical user interface for word processing and
spreadsheets-Windows-along with a standardized tool for communication-dial-up
modems and the global phone network. Once we had that basic interoperable platform,
then the killer applications drove its diffusion far and wide.
"People found that they really liked doing all these things on a computer, and they
really improved productivity," said Mundie. "They all had broad individual appeal
and made individual people get up and buy a Windows-enabled PC and put it on their
desk, and that forced the diffusion of this new platform into the world of corporate
computing even more. People said, 'Wow, there is an asset here, and we should take
advantage of it.'"
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The more established Windows became as the primary operating system, added Mundie,
"the more programmers went out and wrote applications for rich-world businesses to
put on their computers, so they could do lots of new and different business tasks,
which started to enhance productivity even more. Tens of millions of people around
the world became programmers to make the PC do whatever they wanted in their own
languages. Windows was eventually translated into thirty-eight languages. People
were able to become familiar with the PC in their own languages."
This was all new and exciting, but we shouldn't forget how constricted this early
PC-Windows-modem platform was. "This platform was constrained by too many
architectural limits," said Mundie. "There was missing infrastructure." The Internet
as we know it today-with seemingly magical transmission protocols that can connect
everyone and everything-had not yet emerged. Back then, networks had only very basic
protocols for exchangingfiles and e-mail messages. Sopeople who were using computers
with the same type of operating systems and software could exchange documents through
e-mail orfile transfers, but even doing this was tricky enough that only the computing
elite took the trouble. You couldn't just sit down and zap an e-mail or a file to
anyone anywhere-especially outside your own company or outside your own Internet
service-the way you can today. Yes, AOL users could communicate withCompuServe users,
but it was neither simple nor reliable. As a result, said Mundie, a huge amount of
data and creativity was accumulating in all those computers, but there was no easy,
interoperable way to share it and mold it. People could write new applications that
allowed selected systems to work together, but in general this was limited to planned
exchanges between PCs within the network of a single company.
This period from 11/9 to the mid-1990s still led to a huge advance in personal
empowerment, even if networks were limited. It was the age of "Me and my machine can
now talk to each other better and faster, so that I personally can do more tasks"
and the age of "Me and my machine can now talk to a few friends and some other people
in my company better and faster, so we can become more productive." The walls had
fallen and the Windows had opened, making the world much flatter than it
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had ever been-but the age of seamless global communication had not dawned.
Though we didn't notice it, there was a discordant note in this exciting new era.
It wasn't only Americans and Europeans who joined the people of the Soviet Empire
in celebrating the fall of the wall-and claming credit for it. Someone else was raising
a glass-not of champagne but of thick Turkish coffee. His name was Osama bin Laden
and he had a different narrative. His view was that it was the jihadi fighters in
Afghanistan, of which he was one, who had brought down the Soviet Empire by forcing
the Red Army to withdraw from Afghanistan (with some help from U.S. and Pakistani
forces). And once that mission had been accomplished- the Soviets completed their
pullout from Afghanistan on February 15, 1989, just nine months before the fall of
the Berlin Wall-bin Laden looked around and found that the other superpower, the
United States, had a huge presence in his own native land, Saudi Arabia, the home
of the two holiest cities in Islam. And he did not like it.
So, while we were dancing on the wall and opening up our Windows and proclaiming that
there was no ideological alternative left to free-market capitalism, bin Laden was
turning his gun sights on America. Both bin Laden and Ronald Reagan saw the Soviet
Union as the "evil empire," but bin Laden came to see America as evil too. He did
have an ideological alternative to free-market capitalism-political Islam. He did
not feel defeated by the end of the Soviet Union; he felt emboldened by it. He did
not feel attracted to the widened playing field; he felt repelled by it. And he was
not alone. Some thought that Ronald Reagan brought down the wall by bankrupting the
Soviet Union through an arms race; others thought IBM, Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates
brought down the wall by empowering individuals to download the future. But a world
away, in Muslim lands, many thought bin Laden and his comrades brought down the Soviet
Empire and the wall with religious zeal, and millions of them were inspired to upload
the past.
In short, while we were celebrating 11/9, the seeds of another memorable
date-9/11-were being sown. But more about that later in the book. For now, let the
flattening continue.
Flattener #2
8/9/95 When Netscape Went Public
By the mid-1990s, the PC-Windows network revolution had reached its limits. If the
world was going to become really interconnected, and really start to flatten out,
the revolution needed to go to the next phase. And the next phase, notes Microsoft's
Mundie, "was to go from a PC-based computing platform to an Internet-based platform."
The killer applications that drove this new phase were e-mail and Internet browsing.
E-mail was being driven by the rapidly expanding consumer portals like AOL, CompuServe,
and eventually MSN.But it was the new killer app, the Webbrowser-which could retrieve
documents or Web pages stored on Internet Web sites and display them on any computer
screen-that really captured the imagination. The actual concept of the World Wide
Web-a system for creating, organizing, and linking documents so they could be easily
browsed-was created by British computer scientist TimBerners-Lee. He put up the first
Web site in 1991, in an effort to foster a computer network that would enable
scientists to easily share their research. Other scientists and academics had created
a number of browsers to surf this early Web, but the first mainstream browser-and
the whole culture of Web browsing for the general public-was created by a tiny start-up
company in Mountain View, California, called Netscape. Netscape went public on August
9, 1995, and the world has not been the same since.
As John Doerr, the legendary venture capitalist whose firm Kleiner Perkins Caulfield
& Byers had backed Netscape, put it, "The Netscape IPO was a clarion call to the world
to wake up to the Internet. Until then, it had been the province of the early adopters
and geeks."
This Netscape-triggered phase drove the flattening process in several key ways: It
gave us the first broadly popular commercial browser to surf the Internet. The
Netscape browser not only brought the Internet alive but also made the Internet
accessible to everyone from five-year-olds to eighty-five-year-olds. The more alive
the Internet became, the more consumers wanted to do different things on the Web,
so the more they de57
manded computers, software, and telecommunications networks that could easily
digitize words, music, data, and photos and transport them on the Internet to anyone
else's computer. This demand was satisfied by another catalytic event: the rollout
of Windows 95, which shipped the week after Netscape took its stock public. Windows
95 would soon become the operating system used by most people worldwide, and unlike
previous versions of Windows, it was equipped with built-in Internet support, so that
not just browsers but all PC applications could "know about the Internet" and interact
with it.
Looking back, what enabled Netscape to take off was the existence, from the earlier
phase, of millions of PCs, many already equipped with modems. Those are the shoulders
Netscape stood on. What Netscape did was bring a new killer app-the browser-to this
installed base ofPCs, making the computer andits connectivity inherently more useful
for millions of people. This in turn set off an explosion in demand for all things
digital and sparked the Internet boom, because every investor looked at the Internet
and concluded that if everything was going to be digitized-data, inventories,
commerce, books, music, photos, and entertainment-and transported and sold on the
Internet, then the demand for Internet-based products and services would be infinite.
This led to the dot-com stock bubble and a massive overinvestment in the fiber-optic
cable needed to carry all the new digital information. This development, in turn,
wired the whole world together, and, without anyone really planning it, made Bangalore
a suburb of Boston.
Let's look at each one of these developments.
When I sat down with Jim Barksdale, the former Netscape CEO, to interview him for
this book, I explained to him that one of the early chapters was about the ten
innovations, events, and trends that had flattened the world. The first event, I told
him, was 11/9, and I explained the significance of that date. Then I said, "Let me
see if you can guess the significance of the second date, 8/9." That was all I told
him: 8/9. It took Barksdale only a second to ponder that before shooting back with
the right answer: "The day Netscape went public!"
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Few would argue that Barksdale is one of the great American entrepreneurs. He helped
Federal Express develop its package tracking and tracing system, then moved over to
McCaw Cellular, the mobile phone company, built that up, and oversaw its merger with
AT&T in 1994. Just before the sale closed, he was approached by a headhunter to become
the CEO of a new company called Mosaic Communications, forged by two now-legendary
innovators-Jim Clark and Marc Andreessen. In mid-1994, Clark, the founder of Silicon
Graphics, had joined forces with Andreessen to found Mosaic, which would quickly be
renamed Netscape Communications. Andreessen, a brilliant young computer scientist,
had just spearheaded a small software project at the National Center for
Supercomputing Applications (NC SA), based at the University of Illinois, that
developed the first really effective Web browser, also called Mosaic. Clark and
Andreessen quickly understood the huge potential for Web-browsing software and
decided to partner up to commercialize it. As Netscape began to grow, they reached
out to Barksdale for guidance and insight into how best to go public.
Today we take this browser technology for granted, but it was actually one of the
most important inventions in modern history. When Andreessen was back at the
University of Illinois NCSA lab, he found that he had PCs, workstations, and the basic
network connectivity to move files around the Internet, but it was still not very
exciting-because there was nothing to browse with, no user interface to pull up and
display the contents of other people's Web sites. So Andreessen and his team developed
the Mosaic browser, making Web sites viewable for any idiot, scientist, student, or
grandma. Marc Andreessen did not invent the Internet, but he did as much as any single