饭饭TXT > 海外名作 > 《理性乐观派:一部人类经济进步史(出书版)》作者:[英]里德利/译者:闾佳【完结】 > 理性乐观派:一部人类经济进步史.txt

第4章 养活90亿人——10000年前开始的农业耕作.3

作者:英-里德利/译者:闾佳 当前章节:5198 字 更新时间:2026-6-16 04:44

[61] Dennis Avery of the Hudson Institute has written on this.见http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details 8cid=3988.

[62] Clark,C.1963.Agricultural productivity in relation to population.In Man and His Future,CIBA Foundation;also Clark,C.1970.Starvation or Plenty?Seeker and Warburg.

[63] 统计数据来自FAO:www.faostat.fao.org.

[64] Smil,V.2001.Enriching the Earth.MIT Press.也可见http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/22792/Greenpeace_Farming_Plan_Would_Reap_Environmental_Havoc_around_the_World.html:Dennis Avery请Vaclav Smil做的这一计算。

[65] 世界著名环境学者,曾著有《谁来养活中国》(Who Will Feed China)一书。——译者注

[66] Brown,L.2008.Plan B 3.0:Mobilizing to Save Civilisation.Earth Policy Institute.

[67] Morriss,A.P.2006.Real people,real resources and real choices:the case for market valuation of water.Texas Tech Law Review 38.

[68] 我在这里提到的教授和大厨分别是Tim Lang和Gordon Ramsey。“为什么我们会从本来应该去喂养发展中国家的人手里购买粮食呢?”2008年3月4日,可持续发展委员会的Tim Lang在BBC的“今日”节目上问道。“我可不想12月中旬了还在菜谱上看到芦笋的身影。我不想在3月中旬看到从肯尼亚进口来的草莓。我希望它们都是国内种的。”2008年5月9日,Gordon Ramsey说。除非增加碳排放量,要不然,就想象一下,要是真的照这些建议做了,英国的菜谱会有多么单调啊。没有咖啡和茶,没有香蕉和芒果,没有大米也没有咖喱粉,只有6月和7月才有草莓,冬天也没有生菜。你只能吃多得叫人恶心的土豆。富裕的人会自己加热温室,在里头种橘子树,或是到外国去,用行李箱偷运木瓜。肉会变成奢侈品,只有教授与跟他差不多富裕的人才买得起——因为要养出一条羊排,需要的土地比提供同等卡路里的面包多10倍。英国没有联合收割机厂,所以除非教授希望我们伪善地放弃进口面粉而进口收割机,要不然,8月份的时候,我们得轮流拿着镰刀到田里收割庄稼。毫无疑问,这只是些小小的不方便,教授会找出些法律和食品政策解决的。真正的问题还在别的地方,也就是不在我们视线之内的发展中国家那里。咖啡、茶叶、香蕉、芒果、大米和姜黄的种植者们全都会受苦。他们只好放弃种植经济作物,转入更自给自足的状态。听起来倒是蛮有魅力,可自给自足就等于贫困。没办法出售经济作物,他们只好吃掉自己种植的东西。这样一来,北方的我们猛吃土豆,热带的他们只好“丧心病狂”地大吃芒果和姜黄。谢天谢地啊,现金经济让我能吃到芒果,让他们能吃到面包。

[69] 这里指当时掀起的一阵生化燃料风潮,以玉米乙醇来代替汽油。——译者注

[70] 又或者,用学术界的观点来说:“为了实现这一程度的生物能应用,每年额外需要收获4~7 Pg C/yr,令目前的耕作面积翻番,从而给生态系统增加更大的压力。”Haberl,H.et al.2007.Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth’s terrestrial ecosystems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104:12942-7.

[71] Smil,V.2000.Feeding the World.MIT Press.

[72] Avery,A.2006.The Truth about Organic Foods.Henderson Communications.也可见Goulding,K.W.T.and Trewavas,A.J.2009.Can organic feed the world?AgBioview Special Paper 23 June 2009.http://www.agbioworld.org/newsletter_wm/index.php?caseid=archive&newsid=2894.

[73] 新近有研究声称,有机土地的产量可以比使用传统耕作方式的土地更高,但它靠的是对统计数据精挑细选,偏向性极为严重。

[74] Pollan,M.2006 The Omnivore’s Dilemma:the Search for the Perfect Meal in a Fast Food World.Bloomsbury.

[75] Ronald,P.and Adamchak,R.W.2008.Tomorrow’s Table:Organic Farming,Genetics and the Future of Food.Oxford University Press.

[76] ISAAA 2009.The Dawn of a New Era:Biotech Crops in India.ISAAA Brief 39,2009:http://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/downloads/The-Dawn-of-a-New-Era.pdf.

[77] Marvier M.,McCreedy,C,Regetz,J.and Kareiva,P.2007.A meta-analysis of effects of Bt cotton and maize on nontarget invertebrates.Science 316:1475-7;also Wu,K.-M.et al.2008.Suppression of cotton bollworm in multiple crops in China in areas with Bt Toxin-containing cotton.Science 321:1676-8(doi:10.1126/science.l 160550).

[78] Ronald,P.C.and Adamchak,R.W.2008.Tomorrow’s Table:Genetics,and the Future of Food.Oxford University Press.

[79] Miller,J.K.and Bradford,K.J.2009.The pipeline of transgenic traits in specialty crops.Unpublished paper,Kent Bradford.

[80] Hurst,B.2009.The omnivore’s delusion:against the agri-intellectuals.The American,journal of the American Enterprise Institute.30 July 2009.http://www.american.com/archive/2009/july/the-omnivore2019s-delusion-against-the-agri-intellectuals.

[81] Carson,R.1962.Silent Spring.Houghton Mifflin.

[82] Doebley,J.2006.Unfallen grains:how ancient farmers turned weeds into crops.Science 312:1318-19.

[83] Richardson,A.O.and Palmer,J.D.2006.Horizontal gene transfer in plants.Journal of Experimental Botany 58:1-9.

[84] Piskurek,O.and Okada,N.2007.Poxviruses as possible vectors for horizontal transfer of retroposons from reptiles to mammals.PNAS 29:12046-51.

[85] Brookes,G.and Barfoot,P.2007.Global impact of GM crops:socio-economic and environmental effects in the first ten years of commercial use.AgBioForum 9:139-51.

[86] Brand,S.2009.Whole Earth Discipline.Penguin.

[87] 布基纳法索是位于非洲西部沃尔特河上游的内陆国。——译者注

[88] Paarlberg,R.2008.Starved for Science.Harvard University Press.

[89] Potrykus,I.2006.Economic Times of India,26 December 2005.Reprinted at http://www.fighting diseases.org/main/articles.php?articles_id=568.

[90] Quoted in Brand,S.2009.Whole Earth Discipline.Penguin.

[91] Collier,P.2008.The politics of hunger:how illusion and greed fan the food crisis.Foreign Affairs November/December 2008.

[92] Muthaka,B.2009.GM maize for local trials.Daily Nation(Nairobi),17 June 2009.

[93] Morris,C.E.and Sands,D.2006.The breeder’s dilemma:resolving the natural conflict between crop production and human nutrition.Nature Biotechnology 24:1078-80.

[94] Quoted in Avery,D.T.2000.What do environmentalists have against golden rice?Center for Global Food Issues,http://www.cgfi.org/materials/articles/2000/mar_7_00.htm.亦可见www.goldenrice.org,上面还有更多反对这一人道项目的惊人故事。

[95] 1793年法国大革命期间被送上了断头台。传说她生活奢靡,不知民间疾苦,曾经说过:“人民若无面包,何不改吃蛋糕呢?”和我国晋惠帝“何不食肉糜”一语有异曲同工之处。——译者注

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