... 145) 最常见的无法观察到原因的问题是“温水煮青蛙”问题。如果你将一只青蛙扔进滚烫的水里，它会立即跳出来。但是如果你把青蛙放进室温下的水里，然后将水逐渐加热至沸腾，青蛙就是一直待在原地不动，直到被烫死。有一种很强的趋势去习惯和接受以第一次眼光来看待非常令人震惊的坏的事情。
... 146) In some cases, people accept unacceptable problems because they are perceived as being too difficult to fix. Yet fixing unacceptable problems is actually a lot easier than not fixing them, because not fixing them will make you miserable. They will lead to chronic unacceptable results, stress, more work, and possibly get you fired. So remember one of the first principles of management: you either have to fix problems or escalate them (if need be, over and over again) if you can't fix them. There is no other, or easier, alternative.
... 146) 在某些情况下，因为某些问题实在难以解决，人们不得不接受那些不可接受的问题。但是，解决那些不可接受的问题其实要比不解决它们更容易，因为不解决它们，将后患无穷。这些问题会带来长期无法让人忍受的结果、压力、更多工作，甚至可能让你被开除。记住管理的首要原则之一：要么解决问题，解决不了就要升级问题，如果需要的话，甚至可以循环往复进行。没有比这更好的替代方案了。
146a) Problems that have good, planned solutions are completely different from those that don’t. The spectrum of badness versus goodness with problems looks like this:
146a) 已经拥有有效周密的解决方案的问题与那些没有解决方案的问题天差地别。问题好坏的级别划分如下：
a) They’re unidentified (worst) ;
没有被发现（最坏）；
b) Identified but without a planned solution (better) ;
发现了但是没有解决方案（稍好）；
c) Identified with a good, planned solution (good) ; and
找到了周密有效的解决方案（很好）；
d) Solved (best) .
得以解决（最好）。
However, the worst situation for morale is the second case: identified but without a planned solution. So it’s really important to identify which of these categories the problem belongs to.
然而，第二种情况却总容易打击员工积极性，那就是发现了问题但是没有解决方案。因此，将问题进行以上分类至关重要。
... 147) Diagnose to Understand What the Problems Are Symptomatic Of
... 147) 通过诊断分析来理解问题症结所在
So…
因此：
... 148) Recognize that all problems are just manifestations of their root causes, so diagnose to understand what the problems are symptomatic of. Don’t deal with your problems as one-offs. They are outcomes produced by your machine, which consists of design and people. If the design is excellent and the people are excellent, the outcomes will be excellent (though not perfect) . So when you have problems, your diagnosis should look at the design and the people to determine what failed you and why.
... 148) 要认识到所有问题只是其根本原因的表征，所以要通过诊断分析来理解问题症结所在。不要以为可以一次性解决问题。问题是机制的产物，而机制由其设置和人员构成。如果设置和人员都没问题，那结果肯定也不错（尽管不完美）。所以当你遇到问题时，应该分析设定和人员，以此确定造成失败的原因。
... 149) Understand that diagnosis is foundational both to progress and quality relationships. An honest and collaborative exploration of problems with the people around you will give you a better understanding of why these problems occur so that they can be fixed. You will also get to know each other better, be yourself, and see whether the people around you are reasonable and/or enforce their reasonableness. Further, you will help your people grow and vice versa. So, this process is not only what good management is; it is also the basis for personal and organizational evolution and the way to establish deep and meaningful relationships. Because it starts and ends with how you approach mistakes, I hope that I have conveyed why I believe this attitude about and approach to dealing with mistakes is so important.
... 149) 要明白诊断分析是发展公司和建立良好人际关系的基础。和员工一同秉承诚实和协作的精神探究问题，这能让你更好地理解问题产生的原因，进而解决问题。与此同时，也能和员工之间增进相互理解，展现自己，观察员工是否通情达理、办事妥当，你们也可以在相互帮助中获得成长。这个过程不仅仅是一种良好的管理方式，更是员工与公司成长的基础，是建立深厚人际关系的必经之路。因为整个过程始于并且结束于你处理问题的方式，这也是为什么我认为这种对待错误的态度和解决问题的方法至关重要。
... 150) Ask the following questions when diagnosing. These questions are intended to look at the problem (i.e., the outcome that was inconsistent with the goal) as a manifestation of your “machine.” It does this first by examining how the responsible parties imagined that the machine would have worked, then examining how it did work, and then examining the inconsistencies. If you get adept at the process, it should take 10 to 20 minutes. As previously mentioned, it should be done constantly so that you have a large sample size and no one case is a big deal.
... 150) 诊断分析时要问自己以下几个问题。这些问题会引导你将困难（即和目标不一致的结果）视作“机制”的外在表现。首先，你需要了解负责人对于机制运行成效的期待，然后审视机制的运作过程，最后检查出现的问题。一旦你熟悉了这个流程，只需10到20分钟就可以完成这些步骤。如前所述，你应经常重复该流程，累积大量案例，这样解决单个难题就不在话下了。
1) Ask the person who experienced the problem: What suboptimality did you experience?
询问经历过这种问题的人：你有过哪些次佳体验?
2) Ask the manager of the area: Is there a clear responsible party for the machine as a whole who can describe the machine to you and answer your questions about how the machine performed compared with expectations? Who owns this responsibility?
2) 询问该领域的管理者：机制有无明确的负责人，该人是否能向你描述机制，告诉你机制相比预期表现如何，并为整体机制负责？负责人是谁？
Do not mask personal responsibility—use specific names.
不要模糊个人责任,要落实到人。
3) Ask the responsible party: What is the “mental map” of how it was supposed to work?
3) 询问负责人：关于机制运行预期的思维蓝图是什么样的？
4) Ask the owner of the responsibility: What, if anything, broke in this situation? Were there problems with the design (i.e., who is supposed to do what) or with how the people in the design behaved?
4) 询问负责人：问题出在哪里？是机制设定（即谁应该做什么）？还是人员在此种机制设定下的表现？
Compare the mental map of “what should have happened” to “what did happen” in order to identify the gap.
将思维蓝图中给出的“未来期望”同“现实情况”相对比，找出其中的差距。
If the machine steps were followed, ask, “Is the machine designed well?” If not, what’s wrong with the machine?
若机制中规定的步骤都有执行，那要问，该机制的设定是否合理？如若不然，又存在哪些问题？
5) Ask the people involved why they handled the issue the way they did. What are the proximate causes of the problem (e.g., “Did not do XYZ”) ? They will be described using verbs—for example, “Harry did XYZ.” What are the root causes? They will be descriptions. For example: inadequate training/experience, lack of vision, lack of ability, lack of judgment, etc. In other words, root cause is not an action or a reaction—it is a reason.
5) 询问相关人员为什么选择用这种方式处理问题。该问题的直接原因有哪些（比如，没有做某件事）？直接原因会以动词形式出现--比如，“哈利做了某事”。根本原因是什么？根本原因应以描述形式出现。例如：缺少培训或是经验，缺乏远见，能力不足，判断失误等。换句话说，根本原因不是行为也不是反应--而是原因。
Be willing to touch the nerve.
敢于得罪人。
6) Ask the people involved: Is this broadly consistent with prior patterns (yes/no/unsure) ? What is the systematic solution? How should the people / machines / responsibilities evolve as a result of this issue?
6) 询问相关人员：该问题是否和以前的惯例不符（是、否、不确定）？系统性解决方案是什么？从此问题看出人员、设计、职责方面需要哪些改进？
Confirm that the short-term resolution of the issue has been addressed.
确认己提出针对该问题的短期解决方案。
Determine the steps to be taken for long-term solutions and who is responsible for those steps. Specifically:
决定长期解决方案的执行步骤以及执行负责人。尤其是：
a) Are there responsibilities that need either assigning or greater clarification?
a) 需要指派或进一步明确任务么？
b) Are there machine designs that need to be reworked?
b) 需要改进机制设定么？
c) Are there people whose fit for their roles needs to be evaluated?
c) 需要评估人员和岗位匹配度么？
... 151) Remember that a root cause is not an action but a reason. It is described by using adjectives rather than verbs. Keep asking “why” to get at root causes, and don’t forget to examine problems with people. In fact, since most things are done or not done because someone decided to do them or not do them a certain way, most root causes can be traced to specific people, especially “the responsible party.” When the problem is attributable to a person, you have to ask why the person made the mistake to get at the real root cause, and you need to be as accurate in diagnosing a fault in a person as you are in diagnosing a fault in a piece of equipment.
... 151) 要谨记根本原因不是行为而是原因。根本原因通常用形容词而不是动词来描述。要追溯根本原因，就要不停地问“为什么”，并检视人员方面出现的问题。事实上，大多数事情是由某人来决定是否以某种方式处理，所以绝大多数问题的根本原因都可以追究到具体的人特别是“负责人”身上。一旦将问题归结到个人，你就必须要问为什么这个人会犯错，这样才能找到真正的根本原因。你需要像诊断设备故障一样准确地诊断一个人犯的错误。
For example, a root cause discovery process might proceed like this:
比如，寻找根本原因的流程可能如下：
-“The problem was due to bad programming.”
- “该问题源于不良编程。”
-“Why was there bad programming?”
- “为什么编程不良？”
-“Because Harry programmed it badly.”
-“因为哈里没把程序编写好。”
-“Why did Harry program it badly?”
-“为什么哈里没把程序编好？”
-“Because he wasn’t well trained and because he was in a rush.”
-“因为他没经过良好培训，而且程序写得太急了。”
-“Why wasn’t he well trained? Did his manager know that he wasn’t well trained and let him do the job anyway, or did he not know?”
-“为什么他没经过良好培训？他的上司在知道哈里没经过培训的情况下还让他负责这项工作，还是不知情？”
Ultimately it will come down to what the people or the design is like.
根本原因最终会归结到人员或者设定方面。
... 152) Identify at which step failure occurred in the 5-Step Process. If a person is chronically failing it is due to either lack of training or lack of ability. Which was it? At which of the five steps did the person fail? Different steps require different abilities.
... 152) 找出五步流程中哪一步失败了。如果一名员工总是失败，那要么是因为他缺少培训，要么是没能力。是哪个方面的问题？是五步中的哪一步失败了？不同的步骤需要人员具备不同的能力。
Setting goals: This requires big-picture thinking, vision, and values that are consistent with those of our community. (It is helpful to ask whether the responsible party lost sight of the goals or whether he or she set goals that are inconsistent with Bridgewater’s.)
设立目标：该步骤要求人员有全局观、远见、以及和我们团体一致的价值观。（询问责任方是否忽略了目标，设立的目标是否同桥水联合基金的目标不一致。）
Perceiving problems: This requires perception, the ability to synthesize, and an intolerance of badness (i.e., some people see badness but aren’t sufficiently bothered by it to push themselves to eliminate it) . Of course, having perspective (typically gained via experience) helps at all steps.
发现问题：该步骤要求人员有洞察力，综合信息的能力，以及对问题零容忍（有些人看到问题但觉得没什么，也没有动力去解决问题）当然，有远见（通常从经验中获得）对所有步骤都有帮助。
Diagnosis: This requires logic, assertiveness, and open-mindedness. You must be willing to have open and/or difficult discussions to get at the truth.
诊断分析：该步骤要求人员逻辑清晰，做事果断，思想开明。必须要能够通过开诚布公的讨论来寻找真相，尽管有时讨论很困难。
Design: This requires creativity and practical visualization.
设定：该步骤要求人员有创造力和形象化能力。
Doing the tasks: This requires determination and self-discipline.
执行任务：该步骤要求人员有决断力和自我约束力。
If you 1) identify at which of these steps the chronic failures are occurring and 2) see which, if any, of these abilities the person is short of, you will go a long way toward diagnosing the problem.
如果你1）找出哪一步经常出现问题；2）判断人员缺乏哪种能力，那么你在诊断分析问题方面就已经迈出了一大步。
... 153) Remember that a proper diagnosis requires a quality, collaborative, and honest discussion to get at the truth. Don’t just give your verdict without exploring the mistake, because there’s a reasonably high probability that you don’t know the answer. Do not be arrogant. You might have a theory about what happened, and that theory should be explored with relevant others. If you and others are open-minded, you will almost certainly have a quality analysis that will give everyone working theories to explore or you will reach conclusions that can be used for the design phase. And if you do this whenever problems recur, you and others involved will eventually uncover the root causes.
... 153) 要做好诊断分析，需要深入讨论，共同协作，态度诚恳，只有这样才能触及问题真相。切忌不分析问题就妄下结论，因为你很可能不知道问题的原因所在。不要骄傲自大。你可能对于发生的问题有自己的分析判断，但也应该和他人共同讨论验证自己的想法。如果你和其它人都保持开放的心态，便能进行深入分析，让所有人去寻找行之有效的方案，或是你自己最后达成结论，并将其用于设定阶段。这样一来，无论何时再发生问题，你和其它参与过讨论的人最终都能找到根本原因所在。
... 154) Keep in mind that diagnoses should produce outcomes. Otherwise there’s no purpose in them. The outcome might not take the form of an agreement, but at a minimum it should take the form of theories about root causes (which should be written down so you have a collection of synthesized dots to use for identifying patterns) and clarity about what should be done in the future to protect against them, or to gather information to find out.
... 154) 要记得诊断分析应该有结果。不然，就没有诊断分析的必要了。结果不一定是达成一致意见，但至少应该提出对根本原因的猜想（要记录下这些想法，这些想法集合起来可以帮助你找到规律），并且要明确未来应采取何种措施阻止问题再次发生，或者搜集信息，找寻原因。
... 155) Don’t make too much out of one “dot”—synthesize a richer picture by squeezing lots of “dots” quickly and triangulating with others. A dot is a particular outcome. When you diagnose to understand the reason it occurred, you are “squeezing” the dot. Don’t try to squeeze too much out of a single dot—it can only tell you so much. Rather, try to collect and squeeze a bunch of dots in an 80/20 way, triangulating with the dots of others, so that you can synthesize a pointillist painting of what the person is like.
... 155) 不要试图从一个“点”中获取大量信息，而应该快速压榨大量的“点”，并将它们相互联结，从而形成更丰富的图像。一个点就是一个具体的结果。当你通过诊断分析来理解一个结果产生的原因时，你就在“压榨”这个点。不要试图从一个点中压榨很多东西，它只能告诉你那么点信息。相反，你应该以二八原则去收集并压榨大量的点，在点之间建立联系，这样你就能对该员工有如点彩画般的细致了解。
... 156) Maintain an emerging synthesis by diagnosing continuously—You must be able to categorize, understand, and observe the evolution of the different parts of your machine/system through time, and synthesize this understanding into a picture of how your machine is working and how it should be modified to improve. But if you don’t look into the significant bad outcomes as they occur, you won’t really understand what they are symptomatic of, nor will you be able to understand how things are changing through time (e.g., if they are improving or worsening) .
... 156) 要进行持续性诊断分析，整合新思路。要观察、理解、划分系统机制的不同组成部分随着时间推移发生的演变，并将这些体会整合到机制的运行蓝图和改进计划中。但是，如果当问题发生时你不去分析，你就不能真正理解其成因，也不会明白情况怎样随时间发生变化（例如，情况改善或变得更糟）。
... 157) To distinguish between a capacity issue and a capability issue, imagine how the person would perform at that particular function if they had ample capacity.Think back on how they performed in similar functions when they had ample capacity.
... 157) 要区别是才能问题还是能力问题，就去想象如果一个人有足够的才能，那他在这个特定职能上的表现会如何。回想如果人员有足够的才能，那么他们在相似的职能方面会有怎样的表现。
... 158) The most common reasons managers fail to produce excellent results or escalate are:
... 158) 管理者绩效不佳或未能升职最常见的原因有：
a. They are too removed.
他们对问题袖手旁观。
b. They have problems discerning quality differences.
他们不能识别质量差异。
c. They have lost sight of how bad things have become because they have gradually gotten used to their badness (the “frog in the boiling water problem”) .
他们已经渐渐习惯了问题的存在，从而忽视了问题是怎样形成的（“温水煮青蛙”）。
d. They have such high pride in their work that they can’t bear to admit they are unable to solve their own problems.
他们对自己的工作太过自满，不愿承认自己解决不了自己的问题。
e. They fear adverse consequences from admitting failure.
他们害怕承认失败带来的后果。
... 159) Avoid “Monday morning quarterbacking.” That is, evaluate the merits of a past decision based on what you know now versus what you could have reasonably known at the time of the decision. Do this by asking yourself, “What should a quality person have known and done in that situation?” Also, have a deep understanding of the person who made the decision (how do they think, what type of person are they, did they learn from the situation, etc) .
.. 159) 不要做事后诸葛。事后诸葛是指在做出决定后自称有先见之明的人。问自己，“什么是一名高素质人才在问题当下该了解和完成的” 此外，要深入了解当时的决策者（他们怎么想的，他们是什么类型的人，他们有没有从中学到什么，等等）。
... 160) Identify the principles that were violated. Identify which of these principles apply to the case at hand, review them, and see if they would have helped. Think for yourself what principles are best for handling cases like this. This will help solve not only this problem but it will also help you solve other problems like it.
