184b) 记住，系统性并不意味着必须全部由电脑来控制。也可能意味着让员工负责具体的工作，指示他们利用清单来完成工作。
184c) Use “double-do” rather than “double-check” to make sure mission-critical tasks are done correctly. When people double-check someone else’s work, there is a much lower rate of catching errors than when two parties independently do the work and the results are compared. Double-doing is having two different people doing the same task on the same job so that two independent answers are derived. By comparing them you will not only assure better answers but you will see the differences in people’s performances and make much more rapid improvement. I use double-dos in critical areas such as finance, where large amounts of money are involved.
184c) 要“重复工作”，不要“重复检查”，保证重要任务完成无误。当人们在检查别人的工作时，找到错误的概率要远小于两个人分别独立完成之后再就结果进行对比。重复工作就是让两组不同的人来完成同一个工作的同一项任务，由此生成两个独立的答案。通过对比两个答案，你既能确保选择一个更优的答案，又能看到两组人工作表现的差异，让员工提升更快。我在一些关键领域使用重复工作的原则，比如当涉及到大笔资金的使用，就需要员工对财政进行重复工作。
... 185) Watch out for “job slip.”Job slip is when a job changes without being explicitly thought through and agreed to, generally because of changing circumstances or a temporary necessity. Job slip will generally cause bad job design. It often leads to the wrong people handling the wrong responsibilities and confusion over who is supposed to do what.
... 185) 谨防“职责错位”。职责错位是指在没有经过深思熟虑或达成一致的情况下改变工作职责。一般是因为情势变化或临时需要。 职责错位会给工作职能的设计带来不良影响，往往会导致错误的人承担错误的职责，也会使人弄不清到底谁应该负责什么事。
... 186) Think clearly how things should go, and when they aren’t going that way,acknowledge it and investigate. First decide which issue to address first: finding the reason the machine isn’t working well or executing the tasks required to get past the problem (in which case you need to come back to the reasons later) . Either way, don’t pass the problem by without discussing the reasons. Otherwise, you will end up with job slip.
... 186) 考虑清楚工作应该如何开展，如果事情不是朝预期的方向发展，需要及时发现并展开调查。 首先，决定应该从哪里开始下手，即找到机制无法正常运行的原因，或者跳过问题执行其他任务，这种情况下，你需要稍后再调查问题原因。不论怎么选择，千万不要不讨论问题原因直接跳过问题。否则，你最终会陷入职责错位之中。
... 187) Have good controls so that you are not exposed to the dishonesty of others and trust is never an issue. A higher percentage of the population than you might imagine will cheat if given an opportunity, and most people who are given the choice of being “fair” with you and taking more for themselves will choose taking more for themselves. Even a tiny amount of cheating is intolerable, so your happiness and success will depend on your controls. Security controls should be viewed as a necessary tool of our profession, not as a personal affront to an individual’s integrity. Just as a bank teller doesn’t view a check on the money in his drawer as an indication that the bank thinks he is dishonest, everyone here should understand the need for our security controls. Explain this to your people so they see it in the proper context. Even the best controls will never be foolproof, and trustworthiness is a quality that should be appreciated.
... 187) 加强监管，谨防他人的不诚实，使信任不再成为问题。只有给机会，比你预想多很多的人会选择弄虚作假，而大多数人在面临是选择公平还是占更多便宜时，总会选择占更多便宜。但是对公司运营而言，任何最小的欺骗也是不能容忍的，你的幸福和成功都取决于你的监管能力。安全控制应该被看做是职业所必须的工具，而不是针对个人人品的冒犯。就像银行柜员不会觉得查看他柜面的钱款数额是出于银行对他的不信任，所有员工必须理解安全控制的必要性。请向员工进行解释，让他们理解这样做的思路。但是，即便是最好的监管，也不可能毫无漏洞，应该鼓励员工提升自己的可靠度。
187a) People doing auditing should report to people outside the department being audited, and auditing procedures should not be made known to those being audited.
187a) 审计人员应该向被审计部门之外的人汇报审计结果，同时审计程序不能向被审计对象透露。
187b) Remember: There is no sense in having laws unless you have policemen (auditors) .
187b) 记住，如果没有警察（审计人员），法律则形同虚设。
... 188) Do What You Set Out to Do
... 188) 坚持到底
So…
因此：
... 189) Push through! You can make great things happen, but you must MAKE great things happen. Times will come when the choice will be to plod along normally or to push through to achieve the goal. The choice should be obvious.
... 189) 坚持到底！你能做出伟大的事情，前提是你必须要去做。总有一天，你需要选择是和往常一样拖沓行事还是排除万难达成目标。选择很明显。
As Lee Ann Womack’s country and western song says, when you have a choice between sitting it out or dancing, I hope you'll dance.
就像李安沃马克在乡村西部歌曲中唱到的那样，当你面临逃避还是跳舞的选择，我希望你选择跳舞。
To Make Decisions Effectively…
有效决策
... 190) Recognize the Power of Knowing How to Deal with Not Knowing
... 190) 认可在无知时该如何行事的能力
So…
因此：
... 191) Recognize that your goal is to come up with the best answer, that the probability of your having it is small, and that even if you have it, you can’t be confident that you do have it unless you have other believable people test you.
... 191) 要认识到，你的目标是找到最佳答案，而找到最佳答案的可能性是很小的，就算你真的找到了，你也无法确信自己成功了，你必须让其他的靠谱的人来对你进行测试。
... 192) Understand that the ability to deal with not knowing is far more powerful than knowing. That is because there’s way more that we don’t know than what we could possibly ever know.
... 192) 要知道，处理无知的能力要比知道能力更强大。这是因为一个人的所知一定远远少于未知。
192a) Embrace the power of asking: “What don’t I know, and what should I do about it?” Generally you should find believable people and ask their advice, remembering that you are looking to understand their reasoning rather than get their conclusions.
192a) 鼓励提问：“有什么是我不知道的呢？那我该怎么办呢？”一般情况下，你应该去找一些靠谱的人，听取他们的意见，记住你要关注的是他们的论证过程，而不是他们的结论。
192b) Finding the path to success is at least as dependent on coming up with the right questions as coming up with answers. Successful people are great at asking the important questions and then finding the answers. When faced with a problem, they first ask themselves if they know all the important questions about it; they are objective in assessing the probability that they have the answers; and they are good at open-mindedly seeking believable people to ask.
192b) 寻找成功的道路上，提出正确问题与获得正确答案同等重要。成功人士擅长问重要问题，并找到答案。在遇到困难时，他们首先问问自己是否已经对所有相关的问题都有所了解了。他们能够客观评估自己获得答案的可能性，同时，愿意本着开放的心态向靠谱的人求助。
... 193) Remember that your goal is to find the best answer, not to give the best one you have. The answer doesn’t have to be in your head; you can look outside of you. In life the goal is for you to do the right thing, considering the probability that you might be wrong. So it is invaluable to know what you don’t know so that you can figure out a way to find out and/or to get help from others.
... 193) 记住，你的目标是寻找最佳答案，而不是在已有的答案中挑一个最好的。最佳答案不一定就是你已知的答案，你也可以寻求外界帮助。生活的目标是做正确的事，同时考虑做错事的可能性。因此，能够知道自己不知道什么是非常宝贵的能力，只有这样，才能想办法求助他人。
... 194) While everyone has the right to have questions and theories, only believable people have the right to have opinions. If you can’t successfully ski down a difficult slope, you shouldn’t tell others how to do it, though you can ask questions about it and even express your views about possible ways if you make clear that you are unsure.
... 194) 每个人都有权拥有自己的问题和理论，但是只有靠谱的人有权提出观点。如果你自己不会在高难度坡道上滑雪，那么你就没资格告诉别人该怎么滑。当然，你可以就此事提问，也可以在表明自己并不确定的情况下发表自己的观点，讨论可能存在的方式。
... 195) Constantly worry about what you are missing. Even if you acknowledge you are a “dumb shit” and are following the principles and are designing around your weaknesses, understand that you still might be missing things. You will get better and be safer this way.
... 195) 时刻警惕考虑不周的情况。即便你知道自己很笨，于是严格遵守原则，同时围绕自己的弱点对环境进行了相应设置，但你还是可能有所遗漏。谨慎行事会让你更成功、更安全。
195a) Successful people ask for the criticism of others and consider its merit.
195a) 成功人士会征求别人的批评意见，并看到批评的价值。
195b) Triangulate your view. Never make any important decisions without asking at least three believable people. Don’t ask them for their conclusions or just do what they tell you to do. Understand, visualize, and assess their reasoning to see if it makes sense to you. Ask them to probe your own reasoning. That’s critical to your learning as well as to your successful handling of your responsibilities.
195b) 吸收众人观点。永远不要在没有向至少三位靠谱的人咨询的情况下做任何重要决定。不要只是听取结论，盲目照搬。理解他们的观点，将其具体化，评估他们的论证过程，看看说的有没有道理。让他们也来刺激你自己进行论证。这对于你的学习过程和成功承担责任都很重要。
... 196) Make All Decisions Logically, as Expected Value Calculations
... 196) 做决策要讲逻辑，基于期望值测算
So…
所以说
...197) Considering both the probabilities and the payoffs of the consequences, make sure that the probability of the unacceptable (i.e., the risk of ruin) is nil.
...197）考虑结果的可能性与收益，确保发生不可接受结果（如搞砸的风险）的可能性为零。
197a) The cost of a bad decision is equal to or greater than the reward of a good decision, so knowing what you don’t know is at least as valuable as knowing.
197a) 不良决策的代价等同于，甚至严重于正确决策带来的回报。因此，知道自己什么没掌握，至少和知道自己掌握什么一样有价值。
197b) Recognize opportunities where there isn’t much to lose and a lot to gain, even if the probability of the gain happening is low. It is a reality that there are always multiple possibilitiesand nothing is certain. All decisions are therefore risk/reward bets. Know how to pursue fabulous risk/reward ratios that have a huge upside and very little downside, albeit a small probability of happening. My life has been filled with these.
197b) 如果有亏少利多的机会要把握，就算获利可能性低也要试试。不可否认，世事无绝对，存在不同的可能性。因此，所有的决策都是有风险有回报的赌局。要知道如何实现极佳的风险回报率，即回报巨大，风险极小，当然这种可能性很小。我的人生充满了这种决策。
197c) Understand how valuable it is to raise the probability that your decision will be right by accurately assessing the probability of your being right. I often observe people giving opinionsas soon as they have them, which seems at about the point that they think there’s more than a 50% chance of them being right. Often they don’t pay any attention to the value of raising the probability of being right (e.g., from 51% to 85%) by reflecting harder on whether the answer is right and doing the investigations and double-checking with others to make sure that the answer is right. Remember that, in an expected value sense, raising the probability of being right (e.g., from 51% to 85%) can be worth more than just going from probably wrong (e.g., 45%) to probably being right (e.g., 51%) because we are all playing probabilities. Think about the effects of altering the probabilities of achieving must -dos: if you have a 51% probability of handling a “must-do” correctly, it means that only a bit more than half of your must-dos will be done appropriately, whereas an 85% probability of handling a decision well means that only 15% of the must-dos will be handled badly.
197c) 精准评估自己决策正确的可能性，以提高决策准确性，这是十分有价值的。我常看到有人一有想法就不假思索地提出自己的观点，看似自己观点的准确性高于50%，却不做进一步调查，也不同他人进行确认以确保观点的正确性。这样认真反思后的答案准确性就能得到提高（比方说从51%提高到85%），可他们往往不以为然。要记住，从期望值角度来看，提高准确性（比方说从51%提高到85%），远比从可能错误的（假设准确性是49%）情况提升为可能是正确的（假设准确性此时是51%）情况要有价值得多，因为我们终究是在拿可能性打赌。试想一下，本来实现必要事项的可能性是51%，那意味着只有略微过半的任务可能顺利完成，但准确性一旦提高到了85%就意味着只有15%关键事项可能会出问题。
197d) Don’t bet too much on anything. Make 15 or more good, uncorrelated bets.
197d) 任何事情都不能押过多赌注，要留15%或更多余地给无关联的赌注。
... 198) Remember the 80/20 Rule, and Know What the Key20% Is
... 198）牢记80/20法则，并知道那关键的20%是什么
So…
所以说
... 199) Distinguish the important things from the unimportant things and deal with the important things first.
... 199）区分重要事项和不重要事项，先处理重要事项。
199a) Don’t be a perfectionist, because perfectionists often spend too much time on little differences atthe margins at the expense of other big, important things. Be an effective imperfectionist. Solutions that broadly work well (e.g., how people should contact each other in the event of crises) are generally better than highly specialized solutions (e.g., how each person should contact each other in the event of every conceivable crisis) , especially in the early stages of a plan. There generally isn’t much gained by lots of detail relative to a good broad solution. Complicated procedures are tough to remember, and it takes a lot of time to make such detailed plans (so they might not even be ready when needed) .
199a) 不要做完美主义者。因为完美主义者在细微差别上过于耗时，因小失大。要成为有效率的非完美主义者。宽泛的解决方案（比方说，遭遇危机时，大家如何保持联络）一般比极为专业的解决方案（比方说，面对任何一种可能想到的危机时，大家如何保持联络）要更好，这在方案设计初期尤为明显。宽泛合理的解决方案比充斥了一堆繁杂细节的方案能带来更多益处，因为过程太复杂不易记住，制定细节庞杂的方案也很耗时间，甚至到需要派上用场时，也可能还未完成。
199b) Since 80% of the juice can be gotten with the first 20% of the squeezing, there are relatively few (typically less than five) important things to consider in making a decision. For each ofthem, the marginal gains of studying them past a certain point are limited.
199b) 压榨过程进行20%的时候就能得到80%的果汁，所以做决定时，最重要的事项是比较少的（一般少于五件），而且研究每件事项所能获得的边际收益也是有限的。
199c) Watch out for “detail anxiety,” i.e., worrying inappropriately about unimportant, small things.
199c) 警惕“细节焦虑”，不要小题大做。
199d) Don’t mistake small things for unimportant things, because some small things can be very important (e.g., hugging a loved one) .
199d) 不要混淆小事情和不重要事项，因为小事情也可能很重要（举个例子，给爱的人一个简单的拥抱就是这如此）。
... 200) Think about the appropriate time to make a decision in light of the marginal gains made by acquiring additional information versus the marginal costs of postponing the decision. There are some decisions that are best made after acquiring moreinformation, and some that are best made sooner rather than later. The later a decision is made, the more informed it can be; however, making it later can also have adverse consequences (e.g., postponing progress) . Understanding the trade-off between the marginal gains of acquiring the extra information against the marginal costs of postponing a decision is an important factor in the timing and preparation of decision-making.
... 200）做决策的时机要恰当，为获取更多信息而延迟决策，需权衡可获得的边际效益和所需耗费的边际成本。有些决策适合在进一步咨询后进行，有些决策则应尽快敲定。决策耗时越长，能获取更多信息，但也有其负面影响，比如会延迟进展。懂得权衡利弊，要考虑获取更多信息能带来的边际收益，也要关注延迟决策所需耗费的边际成本，这是影响决策时效性与准备工作的重要因素。
... 201) Make sure all the “must do’s” are above the bar before you do anything else. First, distinguish between your “must do’s” and your “like to do’s”. Don’t overlook any “must do’s,” and don’t mistakenly slip the “like to do’s” onto the list. Then, get all the “must do’s” above the bar. Then get all the “must do’s” excellent. If you have time, turn to the “like to do’s” and try to get them above the bar. Only if you have time (though you certainly will not if you are thinking broadly) , turn toward making things perfect. Chances are, you won’t have to deal with the unimportant things, which is better than not having time to deal with the important things. I often hear people say, "Wouldn’t it be good to do this or that,” referring to nice- to-do’s rather than must-do’s that have to be above the bar. Chances are, they are being distracted from far more important things that need to be done well.
... 201）确保所有“必须完成的任务”在完成前优先于其他任何事情。首先，区分“必须完成的任务”和“喜欢做的任务”。不要遗漏任何一样“必须完成的任务”，也不要误将“喜欢做的任务”列入了任务清单。然后，将“必须完成的任务”排上工作日程并出色地完成这些工作。要还有时间，就回过头来看看“喜欢做的任务”，着手再完成这些任务。当自己还有多余的时间时，再想想怎么把事情做到完美（如果思维开阔就肯定不会这样）。实际情况可能是你没时间处理不重要的事情，这好过于没时间处理重要的事情。我老听到有人讲：“这样做或那样做不好吗？”他们考虑的是将看起来漂亮的事情优先做，而非“必须完成的任务”，很有可能就忽略了更为重要的事情。
... 202) Remember that the best choices are the ones with more pros than cons, not those that don’t have any cons. Watch out for people who tend to argue against something because they can find something wrong with it without properly weighing all the pros against the cons. Such people tend to be poor decision-makers.
... 202）要记住，最佳选择获得赞同意见多于反对意见，当然不是说不允许任何反对意见。要警惕有人在没有适当权衡正反意见时挑错反对。这类人不是优秀的决策者。
