... 203) Watch out for unproductively identifying possibilities without assigning them probabilities, because it screws up prioritization. You can recognize this with phrases like “It’s possible that...” then going on to say something that’s improbable and/or unimportant, rather than something like, “I think there’s a good chance that…” followed by something that’s important or probable. Almost anything is possible. All possibilities must be looked at in terms of their likelihoods and prioritized.
... 203）要警惕在没有考虑所有可能性的情况下，就低效地确定其可能性，这样会打乱优先次序。听到“可能是……”这种句式就明白了，他接下来会说一些无从考据且不重要的事情。如果某人说“我认为很可能……”，这一般后面就会说重要且有所根据的事情了。一切皆有可能，所以要根据可能性与重要性来仔细探究每一种可能的情况。
... 204) Understand the concept and use the phrase “by and large.” Too often I hear discussions fail to progress when a statement is made and the person to whom it is made replies, “Not always,” leading to a discussion of the exceptions rather than the rule. For example, a statement like “The people in the XYZ Department are working too many hours” might lead to a response like “Not all of them are; Sally and Bill are working normal hours,” which could lead to a discussion of whether Sally and Bill are working too long, which derails the discussion. Because nothing is 100% true, conversations can get off track if they turn to whether exceptions exist, which is especially foolish if both parties agree that the statement is by and large true. To avoid this problem, the person making such statements might use the term “by and large,” like “By and large, the people in the XYZ Department are working too many hours.” People hearing that should consider whether it is a “by and large” statement and treat it accordingly.
... 204）理解并运用“总体来说”的概念。我老听到这种情况，当有人提出了一个观点，参与讨论的人回复说，“也不总这样啊”，这时，讨论就会陷入僵局。因为他那样一说，大家就会开始不谈常规情况，而开始商讨各种例外情况。举个例子，有人说：“某某部门的员工工作时间太长了。”那别人可能就会回应说：“也不全是吧，萨莉和比尔上班时间就挺正常的呀。”这样一说，大家讨论的重点就会变成萨莉和比尔上班时间到底长不长，这就偏离了讨论要点。因为事事无绝对，讨论重心若放在研究是否存在例外情况的话，对话就偏离了正轨，要双方本来就都觉得这件事“总体来说”没问题的话，这样做就更蠢了。为避免这个问题，发表论述的人可能会说“总体来说”，比如：“总体来说，某某部门的员工工作时间挺长的。”听者就要考虑着是不是“总体来说”句式，并依此处理。
204a) When you ask someone whether something is true and they tell you that “It’s not totally true,” it’s probably true enough.
204a) 当询问某事的真实性时，若对方告诉你“也不完全是事实”时，其实也八九不离十了。
... 205) Synthesize
... 205）综合
So…
所以说
... 206) Understand and connect the dots. To do this well, you have to synthesize what is going on. Usually it takes diagnosing a few (e.g., five or so) dots of the same type to get at the true root cause so that you can see how the machine should be modified to produce better outcomes. For example, one type of outcome involves someone, let’s call him Harry, handling a type of responsibility (entering an order) . You will need at least a few experiences to learn about Harry doing this. It will pay for you to understand Harry and his handling of orders and have him understand you by looking objectively at the outcomes and by getting in synch, especially about the bad outcomes. The quality of your understanding of your machine and its constituent parts will depend on how well you diagnose and process the important outcomes. If you don’t do this continuously and you don’t synthesize well, you will fail. This isn’t easy.
... 206）理解并连点成线。要做好这点，需要综合分析总体情况。只有诊断几个同类型的关键点（例如五个左右）才能了解问题的根源，进而调整机制，改善结果。。举个例子，员工也是可被改善的结果之一，我们姑且叫他哈利吧，他负责某项业务（处理订单）。要了解哈利做得怎么样至少得经历几次观察，更好了解哈利和他处理订单的情况，同时让他理解你，与你达成一致意见，尤其就不好的结果能达成共识，这一过程是回报丰厚的。对机制和其组成部分的理解程度取决于你是否能够很好地完成了对重要问题的诊断和处理。若不持续这样做，就没法做好综合分析，只会面临失败。要顺利完成并不是容易的事。
See how the dots connect through time. This requires collecting, analyzing, and sorting lots of different types, and it ain’t easy for most folks. Imagine a day in which eight outcomes occur. Some are good, some bad. Let’s represent this day as follows, with each type of event represented by a letter and the quality of the outcome represented by its height.
要观察关键点是如何在时间轴上关联起来的，需要收集、分析、大量归类，对于一般人而言难度颇大。试想某天同时出现了八种结果，有好有坏，下图就是这样一天，字母代表事件类别，在图中的水平高度代表结果的质量：
In order to see the day this way, you must categorize outcomes by type and quality, which will require synthesizing a “by and large” assessment of each. If you didn’t examine the bad outcomes as they occurred, you couldn’t understand what they are symptomatic of. Keep in mind our example is a relatively simple one: only eight occurrences over one day. Now let’s look at what a month looks like.
要利用图表方式观察这一天，就得根据类别和质量对结果进行分类，这需要对每一项进行“总体来说”的宏观分析。不良结果出现如果不进行检查，就无法了解症结所在。要记住，我们这个例子相对简单：一天只出现了八个结果，现在让我们来看看一个月的情况吧：
Confusing, eh? Some people are much better at this than others.
看晕了是吧？可就是有人擅长观察这些图表。
In order to understand how your machine is working to achieve your goals, you have to perceive change over time, charting improvement vs. deterioration. The chart below plots just the type X dots, which you can see improving. As mentioned in the section on diagnosis, you must categorize, understand, and observe the evolution of the different parts of your machine through time, and synthesize this understanding into a picture of how your machine is working and how it should be improved. People who do this well are rare and essential. As with most abilities, synthesizing well is partially innate and partially learned through practice.
想要理解机制如何运转以实现目标的，你就得观察一段时间内机制运行产生的变化，绘制图表，记录进步与退步。下图展示了X类别关键点的分布，你会发现它在进行改善。讲问题诊断的时候我提过，必须分类、理解、观察一段时间内机制里不同组成部分的变化，然后综合分析所了解的情况，绘制在图表上，体现机制的运行情况，了解应如何改善。擅于制表读表的人少之又少，但却不可或缺。和大多数能力一样，进行有效综合分析的能力一部分是与生俱来，一部分源自后天实践。
... 207) Understand what an acceptable rate of improvement is, and that it is the level and not the rate of change that matters most. I often hear people say, “It’s getting better,” asthough that is good enough when “it” is both below that bar and improving at an inadequate rate. That isn’t good enough. For example, if someone who has been getting 30s and 40s on tests raised his grade to the 50s, you could say he’s improving but the level is still woefully inadequate. Everything important you manage has to be on a trajectory to be “above the bar” and headed for “excellent” at an acceptable pace. For example, in the chart below, the trajectory of A might be acceptable, but B’s trajectory is not. A gets us above the bar in an acceptable amount of time.
... 207）知道可接受的改善速度是多少，因为改变的程度比改变的速度更重要。我老听人讲“情况越来越好了”。然而实际情况是低于预期，改善速度还很慢，这样的情况根本就称不上好。举个例子，假如有个老是考30-40分的人这次考到了50多分，你可以说他进步了，但离令人满意的分数还差得远。你所掌握的每件事情，都应朝着“高于预期”，争取“卓越”的轨迹上稳步前进。如下表所示，A的运行轨迹是可以接受的，但B的运行轨迹无法令人接受。A的轨迹高于预期，并在合理的一段时间内实现。
... 208) If your best solution isn’t good enough, think harder or escalate that you can’t produce a solution that is good enough. A common mistake is accepting your own best solutionwhen it isn’t good enough.
... 208）如果最佳方案不够令人满意，就得尽力想出更好的办法，实在想不到就提交给上级。一个常犯的错误是方案还不够完善，就自认为已经是最佳方案了。
... 209) Avoid the temptation to compromise on that which is uncompromisable. You must have and achieve high standards. This is particularly difficult when two uncompromisable things are at odds. At such times, there is a tendency to let one of them go. However, at such times you have to allocate more time to figure out how to best handle this, be more creative, and ask for more input. But don’t compromise on one of the things that shouldn’t be compromised. For example, one of the uncompromisable things I regularly get pressure from people to compromise on is letting great people avoid exploring their mistakes and weaknesses because they find it painful. For reasons articulated throughout these principles, I believe we can’t compromise on this because that process of exploration is healthy for Bridgewater, healthy for them, and key to our culture. I also believe that to allow opt-outs would legitimatize two sets of rules and put our radically honest way of being in jeopardy. But I want great people.
... 209）经受住诱惑不要在不能妥协的地方妥协。你必须有且取得很高的标准。当你有两个不可妥协的事情互相起冲突的时候，这尤其困难。在这种时候,你有放弃其中之一的倾向。然而,在这种时候, 你需要更多的时间来搞清如何最好的处理这件事，要更有创造性,并要求更多的输入。但是不要再两者之中任何一件不能妥协的事情上面妥协。 比如,我最近经常感到压力的就是人们经常妥协而我认为是绝对不能妥协的一件事之一是让优秀的人物避免和探索他们的错误和缺点,因为这些优秀的人物认为这太痛苦了。因为在前文原则中所清晰地表达的各种理由中,我相信我们不能在这一点上面妥协，因为优秀的人物探索的过程对桥水公司有益处,对优秀人物本人有益处,是我们文化的关键所在。我也相信如果我收回两条原则将会使得这两个规则合法化（原则一人们不需要探索自己的缺点和弱点。原则二员工不能不要优秀的人去探索他们的缺点和弱点）并且使我们的底层的诚实的的行为方式处于危险之中。但是我想要优秀的员工。
Everyone is wrestling with some things, but most people don’t talk about them—some people don’t like to probe you about your weaknesses because they think it’s unkind or awkward. And it’s often difficult for us to see and accept our own weaknesses. So when you are really in synch with others about what you’re wrestling with, that is a great step forward, because this feedback is probably true.
每个人都有为之苦恼的事情，但多数人对此避而不谈。一般人们不会想去探寻你身上的缺点，他们认为这很无礼也很尴尬，而发现并接受自身缺点又非易事。所以两个所苦恼的事情一旦契合，就意味着取得了很有意义的进步，此时双方的反馈可能是坦诚真实的。
... 210) Don’t try to please everyone. Not everyone is going to be happy about every decision you make,especially the decisions that say they can’t do something.
... 210）不要试图取悦所有人。你做的每个决策都不可能让每个人都满意，尤其是当决策否决了某些人的做法时，他们更是不会满意的。
以下是参与本书翻译的志愿者名单，他们用自己宝贵的时间与精力为本书的发布做出了不可或缺的贡献（排名不分先后）：
任璐
王维
古严
吴杰
沈施铨
田康
尹航
王星君
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如果您发现了书中的错误，请点击此处填写《勘误收集表》。目前，我们已经收到部分读者的反馈，更新了书中的一些错误，在此对各位的火眼金睛表示感谢。
