有人会混淆“期望的真相”与“事实真相”，真实情况因而被扭曲，也就无法做出最佳选择，这可能是因为直面“残酷的现实”确实很难做到。但不直面这些残酷的现实，人们就没法找到从容应对这些现实的办法。如果决策不是基于真实情况，那么决策的结果就无法预测。
An example of this is what discussed earlier: wanting to save the wildebeest from the hyenas. When you don’t want to face what’s really happening, you can’t make sound decisions.
我之前谈过有人想从土狼手中救回羚羊的例子就是如此。若你回避现实，是不可能做出明智决定的。
In contrast, people who know that understanding what is real is the first step toward optimallydealing with it make better decisions.
相比之下，人明白实事求是从容应对困难的第一步，这些人会做出更明智的选择。
So, remember…
所以，记住。。。
Ask yourself, “Is it true?”
问问自己：这是真的吗？
…because knowing what is true is good.
因为了解真实情况是大有好处的。
How much do you let what you wish to be true stand in the way of seeing what is really true?
你会让“期望的真实情况”阻碍自己认清事实真相吗？如果是，程度是怎样呢？
Third:
第三个选择：
People who worry about looking good typically hide what they don’t know and hide their weaknesses, so they never learn how to properly deal with them and these weaknesses remain impediments in the future. Thesepeople typically try to prove that they have the answers, even whenthey really don’t. Why do they behave in this unproductive way? They typically believe the senseless but common view that great people are those who have the answers in their heads and don’t have weaknesses. Not only does this view not square with reality, but it also stands in the way of progress.
担心表面上看起来是否体面的人，一般是在掩盖自己不清楚的地方或缺点，这种人从来不去学怎么处理自己的无知与缺点，任凭其成为未来的拦路虎。这类人就算不知道答案是什么，也试图努力证明自己知道正确答案。为什么他们做如此低效的事情？因为他们持有一个虽可笑但普遍的观点，认为成功人士脑袋里装的只有正确答案、没有缺点。这种观点本身就与事实不符，也会阻碍前进的步伐。
For example, if you are dumb or ugly, you are unlikely to acknowledge it, even though doing so would help you better deal with that reality. Recognizing such “harsh realities” is both very painful and very productive.
例如，假如你是愚蠢或丑陋的，你可能不会承认，尽管这么做会助你更好地面对现实。认识到这种“残酷的现实”虽痛苦，但很有成效。
I have never met a great person who did not earn and learn their greatness. They have weaknesses like everyone else—they have just learned how to deal with them so that they aren’t impediments to getting what they want. In addition, the amounts of knowledge and the capabilities that anyone does not have, and that could be used to make the best possible decisions, are vastly greater than that which anyone (no matter how great) could have within them.
我所遇到的成功人士没有一个不是历经犯错学习才获得成功的。他们和大家一样都有缺点，不过他们懂得如何应对自己的缺点，不会使其阻碍梦想的实现。除此之外，这些成功人士学识渊博，能力超凡，这些都能助我找到最佳的决策方案，这种资源比任何单个成功的人（无论他多成功）所拥有的优势都大得多。
I am not saying that we all have the same potential, just that to get the most of your potential—whatever that is—you must learn and earn.
我不是说大家的潜力是一样的，无论这种潜力是什么，要想完全开发就得学习然后获得。
As I mentioned in the first chapter, you don’t have to know everything to get what you want. You just have to be honest with yourself about what you don’t know and know who to ask for help.
我在第一章 提过，要想实现梦想不必什么都知道，坦诚面对自己对某些东西不知道的事实，懂得找他人寻求帮助。
This explains why people who are interested in making the best possible decisions rarely areconfident that they have the best possible answers. So they seek to learn more (often by exploringthe thinking of other believable people, especially those who disagree with them) and they are eager to identify their weaknesses so that they don’t let these weaknesses stand in the way of them achieving their goals.
这解释了为什么乐于做出最佳决策的人极少会对自己的方案表示十足的信心。他们因此希望学到更多（通过探索其他值得信赖之人，尤其是持异见之人的想法），并渴望发现自身缺点，避免这些缺点阻碍自己实现目标。
So, what are your biggest weaknesses? Think honestly about them because if you can identify them, you are on the first step toward accelerating your movement forward. So think about them, write them down, and look at them frequently.
所以你最大的缺点是什么呢？若你能发现这些缺点，请坦诚思考一下，这是加速自己成功的第一步。想想这些缺点，写下来，时常看看。
One of my biggest weaknesses is my poor rote memory: I have trouble remembering things that don’t have reasons for being what they are, such as names, phone numbers, spelling, and addresses. Also, I am terrible at doing tasks that require little or no logic, especially if I have to do them repeatedly. On the other hand, I have a great contextual memory and good logic, and I can devote myself to things that interest me for untold hours. I don’t know how much of what I am bad at is just the other side of what I am good at—i.e., how much of what I am good at is due to my brain working in a certain way that, when applied to certain tasks, does well and when applied to others does poorly—and how much of what I am good at was developed in order to help compensate for what I am bad at. But I do know that I have created compensating approaches so that what I am bad at doesn’t hurt me much; e.g., I surround myself with people who have good rote memories who do the things that I am bad at, and I carry around tools like my BlackBerry.
我最大的缺点是识记能力差，特别是没有上下文推理的东西我就很难记住，比如姓名、电话号码、单词拼写、地址等等。没什么逻辑的任务我也干不好，如果是机械重复的工作我更是不在行。但从另一方面来看，我情景记忆力和逻辑思维都很强，感兴趣的事情我愿投身其中，不眠不休。不知道我不擅长某些事的原因会不会正好就是我擅长另一些事的原因，也就是说，我擅长某些事是因为大脑的某种思维方式应用到某些具体任务上发挥了很好的效果，但应用到别的一些任务时效果就很差。也不知道我擅长的思维方式是不是得到了开发，足以弥补我的缺点。但可以肯定的是我自己想出了补偿方法，不会因为这些缺点而吃什么大亏。比方说，我身边结交很多识记能力很强的人，他们可以做我不擅长的事情，我随身带着黑莓手机这种电子设备就足够了。
How much do you worry about looking good relative to actually being good?
你有多担心看起来好不好呢？你又有多担心实际上好不好呢？
Fourth:
第四个选择：
People who overweigh the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects that the second- and subsequent-order consequences will have on their goals rarely reach their goals. Thisis because first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-orderconsequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision-making. For example, the first-order consequences of exercise (pain and time-sink) are commonly considered undesirable, while the second-order consequences (better health and more attractive appearance) are desirable. Similarly, food that tastes good is often bad for you and vice versa, etc. If your goal is to get physically fit and you don’t ignore the first- order consequences of exercise and good-tasting but unhealthy food and connect your decisions with their second- and third-order consequences, you will not reach your goal.
过于看重决策的一级效应，忽略二、三级效应的人，一般很难实现目标。因为一级效应和二级效应的意愿经常是对立的，容易使人做决策时犯大错。例如，健身的一级效应为承受痛苦，花费时间，这一般不是人们渴望的。而其二级效应，即更健康，外貌变得更具吸引力，则是人们渴望的。类似的道理，可口的食物一般对健康无益，反之亦然。比如，你的目标是身体健康，但是如果你不忽视运动与美味但不健康的饮食之间的一级效应，不将决策建立在二、三级效应之上，那么你就无法实现目标。
Sometimes it can be difficult to anticipate the 2nd or 3rd order consequences of a decision, such as one that involves using complex technology like X-Rays or DDT, where either things are not what they seem to be or there are too many unknown variables to make a sound decision. For more on the probabilities of personal decision-making, please refer to the “To Make Decisions Effectively” section at the end of Part 3.
某项决定的二、三级效应有时是很难预料的，比如某人使用像X光或数字资料发送机这种复杂的科技设备时就是如此，因为这两样东西表面上很难预测后果，存在太多未知变数，没法做出很好的决定。关于个人抉择的可能性，请参阅第三章 末的《有效决策》部分。
Quite often the first- order consequences are the temptations that cost us what we really want, and sometimes they are barriers that stand in our way of getting what we want. It’s almost as though the natural selection process sorts us by throwing us trick choices that have both types of consequences and penalizing the dummies who make their decisions just on the basis of the first-order consequences alone.
大多数时候，一级效应是我们实现目标要克服的诱惑，有时还是阻碍成功的拦路虎。这就像自然中物竞天择的过程，甩给我们具备两种结果的选项，那些傻乎乎只基于一级效应做选择的笨蛋就会受到惩罚。
By contrast, people who choose what they really want, and avoid the temptations and get over the pains that drive them away from what they really want, are much more likely to have successful lives.
与之相比，选择真心所渴望、抵挡住诱惑、克服实现目标所需承受的痛苦，这样才更可能拥有成功的人生。
How much do you respond to 1st order consequences at the expense of 2nd and 3rd order consequences?
做决策时，不考虑二、三级效应，仅就一级效应做出反应，这种情况发生在你身上的频率高么？
Fifth:
第五个选择：
People who blame bad outcomes on anyone or anything other than themselves are behaving in a way that is at variance with reality, and subversive to their progress.
有的人，结果不理想就怪罪别人而不从自身找原因，这与事实相矛盾，也会阻碍进步。
Blaming bad outcomes on anyone or anything other than one’s self is essentially wishing that reality is different than it is, which is silly. And it is subversive because it diverts one’s attention away from mustering up the personal strength and other qualities that are required to produce the best possible outcomes.
结果不理想就怪到别人头上，而不认为自己有问题，实际上是想自欺欺人，这种做法很可笑，还会阻碍进步。因为这样做无疑是分散精力，而原本是可以集中精力提升个人能力素质，实现最佳结果的。
Blaming others is NOT the same thing as holding others accountable, which we will discuss in my Management Principles.
责备他人和实行问责制度不是一回事，我在管理原则章节会进行探讨。
Successful people understand that bad things come at everyone and that it is their responsibility to make their lives what they want them to be by successfully dealing with whatever challenges they face. Successfulpeople know that nature is testing them, and that it is not sympathetic.
成功人士明白，不好的结果大家都会受其影响，人人都有责任应对各种挑战，这样才能实现梦想。成功人士明白这是大自然在对他们进行考验，这没什么可悲的。
Luck — both good and bad — is a reality. But it is not a reason for an excuse. In life, we have a large number of choices, and luck can play a dominant role in the outcomes of our choices. But if you have a large enough sample size—if you have large number of decisions (if you are playing a lot of poker hands, for example)—over time, luck will cancel out and skill will have a dominant role in determining outcomes. A superior decision-maker will produce superior outcomes. That does not mean there won’t be certain bad-(or good-) luck events that are life changing: a friend of mine dove into a swimming pool and became a quadriplegic. But he approached his situation well and became as happy as anybody else, because there are many paths to happiness. What happens to a lot of people is that they don’t take personal responsibility for their outcomes, and as a result fail to make the best possible decisions.
无论是好运气还是坏运气，都是事实。但运气不能作为做不好事的借口。生活中我们面对很多选择，运气对选择的结果起着主导作用，但假如样本数量足够大，就是说你的决定特别多，那久而久之，运气的作用就开始淡化了，能力开始对结果起主导作用了。优秀的决策者会做出优秀的决定。那并不意味着运气（好的或坏的）不会对人生产生重大改变：我有个朋友在游泳池游泳不慎变成了四肢瘫痪者，但他面对这样的境遇依然能够处理地很好，同大家一样幸福，因为通往幸福的道路不止一条。很多人不为自己所造成的结果担当起个人责任，结果就是无法做出最佳决定。
As I mentioned earlier, I believe that nature is symbiotic—and that we must give to it for it to give back.
我之前提过，大自然是共生的，我们需要给它它想要的，才得到回报。
How much do you let yourself off the hook rather than hold yourself accountable for your success?
为实现成功，你是置身事外呢，还是富有担当与责任心呢？
In summary, I believe that you can probably get what you want out of life if you can suspend your ego and take a no-excuses approach to achieving your goals with open -mindedness, determination, and courage, especially if you rely on the help of people who are strong in areas that you are weak.
总结一下，我认为要实现梦想，你得清除自我设障，做事不找借口、思维开放、下定决心、富有勇气，尤其要依靠那些在你不擅长的领域表现优秀之人。
If I had to pick just one quality that those who make the right choices have, it is character. Character is the ability to get one’s self to do the difficult things that produce the desired results. In other words, I believe that for the most part, achieving success—whatever that is for you—is mostly a matter of personal choice and that, initially, making the right choices can be difficult. However, because of the law of nature that pushing your boundaries will make you stronger, which will lead to improved results that will motivate you, the more you operate in your “stretch zone,” the more you adapt and the less character it takes to operate at the higher level of performance. So, if you don’t let up on yourself, i.e., if you operate with the same level of “pain,” you will naturally evolve at an accelerating pace. Because I believe this, I believe that whether or not I achieve my goals is a test of what I am made of. It is a game that I play, but this game is for real. In the next part I explain how I go about playing it.
若要说做出明智的选择之人具备什么共同的素质，我想，是意志。意志坚强的人能够克服困难，获得想要的结果。换句话说，我认为要实现成功主要靠的是个人选择，刚开始做正确的选择会很困难，但根据大自然法则，要变得强大就要突破自己的极限，才能实现进步这一结果，激励自己继续前行，在“伸展区”历练越多，就越能适应环境，高级阶段也就不用那么费力了。所以，如果你不放松，保持“疼痛”的程度，就会自然而然加速成长。因为我相信，能否实现目标是对自身品质的检验，这是一场自己主导的游戏，但是这是荷枪实弹的游戏。下一章我会谈谈怎么开始玩这场游戏。
In summary, I don’t believe that limited abilities are an insurmountable barrier to achieving yourgoals, if you do the other things right.
总结一下，我不认为有限的能力是实现目标不可逾越的障碍，能把其他的事情做好，也能弥补自身的缺陷。
As always, it is up to you to ask yourself if what I am saying is true. As the next part delves into this concept more, you might want to reserve your judgment until after you have read it.
还是老规矩，你自己来判断我说的是不是真的，下一章会更深入探讨这个概念，在那之前，你可以保留自己的判断。
Your Two Yous and Your Machine
两个“你”和你的“机器”
Those who are most successful are capable of “higher level thinking” —i.e., they are able to step back and design a “machine” consisting of the right people doing the right things to get what they want. They are able to assess and improve how their “machine” works by comparing the outcomes that the machine is producing with the goals. Schematically, the process is as shown in the diagram below. It is a feedback loop:
成功人士具备“高层思维”，即能够往回看，设计一台“机器”，由合适的员工做匹配的工作，然后实现目标。他们通过比较这台“机器”的生产情况与预期目标，能够评估并改善其运行情况。整个过程如下图所示，这个过程形成了一个反馈循环：
That schematic is meant to convey that your goals will determine the “machine” that you create to achieve them; that machine will produce outcomes that you should compare with your goals to judge how your machine is working. Your “machine” will consist of the design and people you choose to achieve the goals. For example, if you want to take a hill from an enemy you will need to figure out how to do that— e.g., your design might need two scouts, two snipers, four infantrymen, one person to deliver the food, etc. While having the right design is essential, it is only half the battle. It is equally important to put the right people in each of these positions. They need different qualities to play their positions well—e.g., the scouts must be fast runners, the snipers must be precise shots, etc. If your outcomes are inconsistent with your goals (e.g., if you are having problems), you need to modify your “machine,” which means that you either have to modify your design/culture or modify your people. Do this often and well and your improvement process will look like the one on the left and do it poorly and it will look like the one on the right, or worse:
这个图表说明，这台“机器”旨在实现你所设定的目标，“机器”产出的结果与目标进行比较，判断“机器”的运行情况，你的这台“机器”由机构设置与员工配备两块组成。例如，你想要攻下敌人占领的山头，就得知道怎么去操作，你的设计方案可能是：需要两个侦察兵，两名狙击手，四名步兵，一名后勤兵并给前方运送食物。做好设计方案很重要，但想打好仗，这只完成了一半，同样重要的是，你还需要将合适的员工安排在正确的岗位上。每个岗位所要求的素质不同，侦察兵要跑得快，狙击手要射得准。如果结果和目标不一致，比如出现问题了，你就要调试自己的这台“机器”，既要调试设计方案，即公司文化，也要调整人员配备。经常这样进行反馈与调整，进步的过程就会如左图曲线所示，反之如右图曲线所示。
I call it “higher level thinking” because your perspective is of one who is looking down on at your machine and yourself objectively, using the feedback loop as I previously described. In other words,your most important role is to step back and design, operate and improve your “machine” to get what you want.
“高层思维”是以俯视的角度客观审视这台“机器”与你自己。要运用我之前描述的反馈回路。换句话说，你最重要的角色是回过头反思，进行设计、操作，改善“机器”的性能，实现目标。
