第1章

1 . Tim Blanning,The Pursuit of Glory (New York:Penguin Books, 2008), 52.

2 .同上，53.并请参见：J. Neumann and S. Lindgrén, ‘Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather:4, The Great Famines in Finland and Estonia, 1695–97’,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 60 (1979), 775–87; Andrew B. Appleby, ‘Epidemics and Famine in the Little Ice Age’,Journal of Interdisciplinary History 10:4 (1980):643–63; Cormac Ó Gráda an d Jean-Mi che l C heve t, ‘Fa mine an d Ma r ke t inA n cien R égi me F ran ce’,Jou r na l o f Economic History 62:3 (2002), 706–73.

3 . Nicole Darmon et al., ‘L’insécurité alimentaire pour raisons financières en France’,Observatoire National de la Pauvret é et de l ’Exclusion Sociale , https://www.onpes.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Darmon.pdf , accessed 3 March 2015; Rapport Annuel 2013,Banques Alimetaires , http://en.calameo.com/read/001358178ec47d2018425 , accessed 4 March 2015.

4 . Richard Dobbs et al., ‘How the World Could Better Fight Obesity’, McKinseys & Company, November, 2014, accessed 11 December 2014, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/how_the_world_could_better_fight_obesity .

5 . ‘Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2013’,Lancet , 18 December 2014, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease ; Stephen Adams, ‘Obesity Killing Three Times As Many As Malnutrition’,Telegraph , 13 December 2012, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9742960/Obesity-killing-three-timesas-many-as-malnutrition.html

6 . Robert S. Lopez,The Birth of Europe [in Hebrew] (Tel Aviv:Dvir, 1990), 427.

7 . https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/Yersinia_pestis.jpg

8 . Alfred W. Crosby,The Columbian Exchange:Biological and Cultural Consequences of 1492 (Westport:Greenwood Press, 1972); William H. McNeill,Plagues and Peoples (Oxford:Basil Blackwell, 1977).

9 . Hugh Thomas,Conquest:Cortes,Montezuma and the Fall of Old Mexico (New York:Simon & Schuster, 1993), 443–6; Rodolfo Acuna-Soto et al., ‘Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico’,Historical Review 8:4 (2002), 360–2; Sherburne F. Cook and Lesley Byrd Simpson,The Population of Central Mexico in the Sixteenth Century (Berkeley:University of Califronia Press, 1948).

10 . Jared Diamond,Guns, Germs and Steel:The Fates of Human Societies [in Hebrew] (Tel Avia:Am Oved, 2002), 167.

11 . Jeffery K. Taubenberger and David M. Morens, ‘1918 Influenza:The Mother of All Pandemics’,Emerging Infectious Diseases 12:1 (2006), 15–22; Niall P. A. S. Johnson and Juergen Mueller, ‘Updating the Accounts:Global Mortality of the 1918–1920“Spanish”Influenza Pandemic’,Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76:1 (2002), 105–15; Stacey L. Knobler, Alison Mack, Adel Mahmoud et al., ed.,The Threat of Pandemic Influenza:Are We Ready?Workshop Summary (Washington DC:National Academies Press 2005), 57–110; David van Reybrouck,Congo:The Epic History of a People (New York:HarperCollins, 2014), 164; Siddharth Chandra, Goran Kuljanin and Jennifer Wray, ‘Mortality from the Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919:The Case of India’,Demography 49:3 (2012), 857–65; George C. Kohn,Encyclopedia of Plague and Pestilence:From Ancient Times to the Present , 3rd edn (New York:Facts on File, 2008), 363.

12 .从2005年到2010年的平均值，分别是全球4.6%、非洲7.9%、欧洲和北美0.7%。参见：‘Infant Mortality Rate (Both Sexes Combined) by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950–2010 (Infant Deaths for 1000 Live Births), estimates’,World Population Prospects: the 2010 Revision , UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, April 2011, accessed 26 May 2012, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm .同时参见Alain Bideau, Bertrand Desjardins, and Hector Perez-Brignoli, ed.,Infant and Child Mortality in the Past (Oxford:Clarendon Press, 1997); Edward Anthony Wrigley et al.,English Population Historyfrom Family Reconstitution, 1580 –1837 (Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1997), 295–6, 303.

13 . David A. Koplow, Smallpox:The Fight to Eradicate a Global Scourge (Berkeley:University of California Press, 2004); Abdel R. Omran, ‘The Epidemiological Transition:A Theory of Population Change’,Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 83:4 (2005), 731–57; Thomas McKeown,The Modern Rise of Populations (New York:Academic Press, 1976); Simon Szreter,Health and Wealth:Studies in History and Policy (Rochester:University of Rochester Press, 2005); Roderick Floud, Robert W. Fogel, Bernard Harris and Sok Chul Hong,The Changing Body:Health, Nutrition and Human Development in the Western World since 1700 (New York:Cambridge University Press, 2011); James C. Riley,Rising Life Expectancy:A Global History (New York:Cambridge University Press, 2001).

14 . ‘Cholera’, World Health Organization, February 2014, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs107/en/index.html .

15 . ‘Experimental Therapies:Growing Interest in the Use of Whole Blood or Plasma from Recovered Ebola Patients’, World Health Organization, September 26, 2014, accessed 23 April 2015, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/26–september-2014/en/ .

16 . Hung Y. Fan, Ross F. Conner and Luis P. Villarreal,AIDS:Science and Society , 6th edn (Sudbury:Jones and Bartlett Publishers, 2011).

17 . Peter Piot and Thomas C. Quinn, ‘Response to the AIDS Pandemic – A Global Health Model’,TheNew England Journal of Medicine 368:23 (2013):2210–18.

18 .在官方数据中，从未将“老死”列入死因。如果某位妇人年老体衰，最终因为某种感染而再也撑不下去，账面上就会将感染列为正式死因。因此从官方数据来看，因传染病而死的人仍然占总死亡人数的20%以上。然而现在的情形绝对已经和过去大为不同：当时传染病带走的是大批儿童及健壮成年人的生命。

19 . David M. Livermore, ‘Bacterial Resistance:Origins, Epidemiology, and Impact’,Clinical Infectious Diseases 36:s1 (2005), s11–23; Richards G. Wax et al., ed.,Bacterial Resistance to Antimicrobials , 2nd edn (Boca Raton:CRC Press, 2008); Maja Babic and Robert A. Bonomo, ‘Mutations as a Basis of Antimicrobial Resistance’, inAntimicrobial Drug Resistance:Mechanisms of Drug Resistance , ed. Douglas Mayers, vol. 1 (New York:Humana Press, 2009), 65–74; Julian Davies and Dorothy Davies, ‘Origins and Evolution of Antibiotic Resistance’,Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews 74:3 (2010), 417–33; Richard J. Fair and Yitzhak Tor, ‘Antibiotics and Bacterial Resistance in the 21st Century’,Perspectives in Medicinal Chemistry 6 (2014), 25–64.

20 . Alfonso J. Alanis, ‘Resistance to Antibiotics:Are We in the Post-Antibiotic Era?’,Archives of Medical Research 36:6 (2005), 697–705; Stephan Harbarth and Matthew H. Samore, ‘Antimicrobial Resistance Determinants and Future Control’,Emerging Infectious Diseases 11:6 (2005), 794–801; Hiroshi Yoneyama and Ryoichi Katsumata, ‘Antibiotic Resistance in Bacteria and Its Future for Novel Antibiotic Development’,Bioscience, Biotechnology and Biochemistry 70:5 (2006), 1060–75; Cesar A. Arias and Barbara E. Murray, ‘Antibiotic-Resistant Bugs in the 21st Century – A Clinical Super-Challenge’,New England Journal of Medicine 360 (2009), 439–43; Brad Spellberg, John G. Bartlett and David N. Gilbert, ‘The Future of Antibiotics and Resistance’,New England Journal of Medicine 368 (2013), 299–302.

21 . Losee L. Ling et al., ‘A New Antibiotic Kills Pathogens without Detectable Resistance’,Nature 517 (2015), 455–9; Gerard Wright, ‘Antibiotics:An Irresistible Newcomer’,Nature 517 (2015), 442–4.

22 . Roey Tzezana,The Guide to the Future [in Hebrew] (Haifa:Roey Tzezana, 2013), 209–33.

23 . Azar Gat,War in Human Civilization (Oxford:Oxford University Press, 2006), 130–1; Steven Pinker,The Better Angels of Our Nature:Why Violence Has Declined (New York:Viking, 2011); Joshua S. Goldstein,Winning the War on War:The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide (New York:Dutton, 2011); Robert S. Walker and Drew H. Bailey, ‘Body Counts in Lowland South American Violence’,Evolution and Human Behavior 34:1 (2013), 29–34; I. J. N. Thorpe, ‘Anthropology, Archaeology, and the Origin of Warfare’,World Archaology 35:1 (2003), 145–65; Raymond C. Kelly,Warless Societies and the Origin of War (Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press, 2000); Lawrence H. Keeley,War before Civilization:The Myth of the Peaceful Savage (Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1996); Slavomil Vencl, ‘Stone Age Warfare’, inAncient Warfare:Archaeological Perspectives , ed. John Carman and Anthony Harding (Stroud:Sutton Publishing, 1999), 57–73.

24 . ‘Global Health Observatory Data Repository, 2012’, World Health Organization, accessed 16 August 2015, http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.RCODWORLD?lang=en ; ‘Global Study on Homicide, 2013’, UNDOC, accessed 16 August 2015, http://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf ; http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/estimates/en/index1.html .

25 . Van Reybrouck,Congo , 456–7.

26 .关于肥胖造成的死亡：‘Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2013’,Lancet , 18 December 2014, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease ; Stephen Adams, ‘Obesity Killing Three Times As Many As Malnutrition’,Telegraph , 13 December 2012, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9742960/Obesity-killing-three-times-as-many-as-malnutrition.html .关于恐怖主义造成的死亡：Global Terrorism Database , http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/ , accessed 16 January 2016.

27 . Arion McNicoll, ‘How Google’s Calico Aims to Fight Aging and“Solve Death”’, CNN, 3 October 2013, accessed 19 December 2014, http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/03/tech/innovation/google-calico-aging-death/ .

28 . Katrina Brooker, ‘Google Ventures and the Search for Immortality’,Bloomberg , 9 March 2015, accessed 15 April 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015–03–09/google-ventures-bill-maris-investing-in-idea-of-livingto-500 .

29 . Mick Brown, ‘Peter Thiel:The Billionaire Tech Entrepreneur on a Mission to Cheat Death’,Telegraph , 19 September 2014, accessed 19 December 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/11098971/Peter-Thiel-the-billionaire-techentrepreneur-on-a-mission-to-cheat-death.html .

30 . Kim Hill et al., ‘Mortality Rates among Wild Chimpanzees’,Journal of Human Evolution 40:5 (2001):437–50; James G. Herndon, ‘Brain Weight Throughout the Life Span of the Chimpanzee’,Journal of Comparative Neurology 409 (1999):567–72.

31 . Beatrice Scheubel,Bismarck ’s Institutions:A Historical Perspective on the Social Security Hypothesis (Tubingen:Mohr Siebeck, 2013); E. P. Hannock,The Origin of the Welfare State in England and Germany, 1850 –1914 (Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2007).

32 . ‘Mental Health:Age Standardized Suicide Rates (per 100,000 Population), 2012’, World Health Organization, accessed 28 December 2014, http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/mental_health/suicide_rates/atlas.html .

33 . Ian Morris,Why the West Rules – For Now (Toronto:McClelland & Stewart, 2010), 626–9.

34 . David G. Myers, ‘The Funds, Friends, and Faith of Happy People’,American Psychologist 55:1 (2000), 61; Ronald Inglehart et al., ‘Development, Freedom, and Rising Happiness:A Global Perspective (1981–2007)’,Perspectives on Psychological Science 3:4 (2008), 264–85.同时参见Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, ‘If We Are So Rich, Why Aren’t We Happy?’,American Psychologist 54:10 (1999), 821–7; Gregg Easterbrook,The Progress Paradox:How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse (New York:Random House, 2003).

35 . Ke nji Suzuki, ‘Ar e They Frigid to the Ec o n o mic Development?Reconsideration of the Economic Effect on Subjective Well-being in Japan’,Social Indicators Research 92:1 (2009), 81–9; Richard A. Easterlin, ‘Will Raising the Incomes of all Increase the Happiness of All?’,Journal of Economic Bheavior and Organization 27:1 (1995), 35–47; Richard A. Easterlin, ‘Diminishing Marginal Utility of Income?Caveat Emptor’,Social Indicators Research 70:3 (2005), 243–55.

36 . Linda C. Raeder,John Stuart Mill and the Religion of Humanity (Columbia:University of Missouri Press, 2002).

37 . Oliver Turnbull and Mark Solms,TheBrain and the Inner World [in Hebrew] (Tel Aviv:Hakibbutz Hameuchad, 2005), 92–6; Kent C. Berridge and Morten L. Kringelbach, ‘Affective Neuroscience of Pleasure:Reward in Humans and Animals’,Psychopharmacology 199 (2008), 457–80; Morten L. Kringelbach,The Pleasure Center:Trust Your Animal Instincts (Oxford:Oxford University Press, 2009).

38 . M. Csikszentmihalyi,Finding Flow:The Psychology of Engagement with Everyday Life (New York:Basic Books, 1997).

39 . Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Attention-Deficit / Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/adhd/data.html , accessed 4 January 2016; Sarah Harris, ‘Number of Children Given Drugs for ADHD Up Ninefold with Patients As Young As Three Being Prescribed Ritalin’,Daily Mail , 28 June 2013, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2351427/Number-children-given-drugs-ADHD-ninefold-patients-young-THREE-prescribedRitalin.html , accessed 4 January 2016; International Narcotics Control Board (UN),Psychotropics Substances, Statistics for 2013, Assessments of Annual Medical and Scientific Requirements 2014 , 39–40.

40 .关于学生滥用此类兴奋剂的证据仍然不足，但2013年的一项研究发现，美国大学生有5%~15%曾非法使用某种兴奋剂至少一次：C. Ian Ragan, Imre Bard and Ilina Singh, ‘What Should We Do about Student Use of Cognitive Enhancers?An Analysis of Current Evidence’,Neuropharmacology 64 (2013), 589.

41 . Bradley J. Partridge, ‘Smart Drugs“As Common as Coffee”:Media Hype about Neuroenhancement’,PLoS One 6:11 (2011), e28416.

42 . Office of the Chief of Public Affairs Press Release, ‘Army, Health Promotion Risk Reduction Suicide Prevention Report, 2010’, accessed 23 December 2014, http://csf2.army.mil/downloads/HP-RR-SPReport2010.pdf ; Mark Thompson, ‘America’s Medicated Army’,Time , 5 June 2008, accessed 19 December 2014, http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0 ,9171,1812055,00.html; Office of the Surgeon Multi-National Force-Iraq and Office of the Command Surgeon, ‘Mental Health Advisory Team (MHAT) V Operation Iraqi Freedom 06–08:Iraq Operation Enduring Freedom 8:Afghanistan’, 14 February 2008, accessed 23 December 2014, http://www.careforthetroops.org/reports/Report-MHATV-4–FEB-2008–Overview.pdf .

43 . Tina L. Dorsey, ‘Drugs and Crime Facts’, US Department of Justice, accessed 20 February 2015, http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/dcf.pdf ; H. C. West, W. J. Sabol and S. J. Greenman, ‘Prisoners in 2009’, US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin (December 2010), 1–38; ‘Drugs And Crime Facts:Drug use and Crime’, US Department of Justice, accessed 19 December 2014, http://www.bjs.gov/content/dcf/duc.cfm ; ‘Offender Management Statistics Bulletin, July to September 2014’, UK Ministry of Justice, 29 January 2015, accessed 20 February 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-july-to-september-2014 .; Mirian Lights et al., ‘Gender Differences in Substance Misuse and Mental Health amongst Prisoners’, UK Ministry of Justice, 2013, accessed 20 February 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/220060/gendersubstance-misuse-mental-health-prisoners.pdf ; Jason Payne and Antonette Gaffney, ‘How Much Crime is Drug or Alcohol Related?Self-Reported Attributions of Police Detainees’,Trends & Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice 439 (2012), http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi439.pdf , accessed 11 March 2015; Philippe Robert, ‘The French Criminal Justice System’, in Punishment in Europe:A Critical Anatomy of Penal Systems , ed. Vincenzo Ruggiero and Mick Ryan (Houndmills:Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), 116.