Significance tests were concocted by the Cambridge mathematician and geneticist Ronald Aylmer Fisher, known as “the father of modern statistics.” All scientists had to do, said Fisher, was to convert their raw data into something called a P-value, a number giving the probability of getting at least as impressive results as those seen by chance alone. If this P-value is below 1 in 20, or 0.05, said Fisher, it is safe to conclude that a finding really is “significant”. Combining simplicity with apparent objectivity, Fisher's P-value method was an immediate hit with the scientific community. Its popularity endures to this day. Open any leading scientific journal and you will see the phrase “P< 0.05” - the hallmark of a significant finding. Fisher's standard is especially important for pharmaceuticals companies, as national regulatory bodies still use the standard to approve a new drug for general release. This can make the difference between millions in profits or bankruptcy.
However, scientists at the University of Michigan have discovered that Fisher's theorem fails to take into account “plausibility” - and thus can see “significance” in results which are over 50 percent nonsense. As a result, there has been a move by medical journals to drop “P-values”, but they are still adhered to. This is in spite of the fact that the evidence of the unsoundness of “P-values” is everywhere to be seen — “wonder drugs” that lose their amazing abilities outside clinical trials, bizarre “links” between genetics and personality, etc. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the real reason for all this foot-dragging is not scientific at all. It is simply that if scientists abandon significance tests like “P-values” many of their claims will be seen for what they really are: meaningless flukes on which taxpayers' money should never have been spent.
Questions 17-21
The paragraph below is a summary of the first half of the reading passage. Complete the summary by selecting THREE WORDS EACH from the passage to fill the spaces numbered 17-21. Write your answers in spaces 17-21 on your answer sheet.
Example Answer
In the mid-1990s, “miracle cures” forheart attack victims
proved to be failures.
Claims of miraculous new cures for serious diseases such as heart ailments and cancer are coming under suspicion, as these treatments are not proving as effective as the original tests indicate. Many of the new drugs have proved to be failures...17...In addition, the findings of ...18...often can not be replicated. The problem seems to be the reliance on “significance tests” to...19...of research results. These tests have been used by the...20...since the 1920s. They are popular and convenient to use, but they are also...21...erroneous.
Questions 22-27
22 How many examples of “miracle cures” are given?
A 58,000
B 3
C 2
D a dozen
23 According to the passage, which of the following can “significance t
ests” NOT do?
A Analyze clinical trials
B Indicate the existence of the paranormal
C Provide conclusive evidence
D Provide convincing evidence
24 According to the passage, significance tests have made some positive
contributions to health research.
Write:
A if you agree with the statement above, or
D if you disagree
In box 24 on your answer sheet.
25 According to the reading passage, scientific journals still trust Fis
her's method.
Write:
Aif you agree with the statement above, or
Dif you disagree
In box 25 on your answer sheet.
26 Fisher's theory lacks...
A plausibility
B P-values
C significance
D simplicity
27 Broadly speaking, do you feel that the author would like the P-value method made more accurate or abolished altogether?
Write either MORE ACCURATE or ABOLISHED in box 27 on your answer sheet.
READING PASSAGE 3
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 28-40 which are based on Reading
Passage 3.
The Causes of Poverty
Half the world — nearly three billion people — live on less than two dollars a day. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the poorest 48 nations (i.e. a quarter of the world's countries) is less than the wealth of the world's three richest people combined. Nearly a billion people entered the 21st century unable to read a book or sign their names. Less than one per cent of what the world spends every year on weapons could put every child in school.
All over the world, disparities between rich and poor, even in the wealthiest of nations is rising sharply. Fewer people are becoming increasingly successful and wealthy while a disproportionately larger population is also becoming even poorer.
There are many issues involved when looking at global poverty and inequality. It is not simply enough (or correct) to say that the poor are poor due to their own (or their government's) bad governance and management. In fact, you could quite easily conclude that the poor countries are poor because the rich countries are rich and have the power to enforce unequal trade agreements that favor their interests more than the poorer nations.
The IMF- and World Bank-prescribed structural adjustment policies mean that nations that are lent money get it on condition that they cut social expenditure (which is vital for economic growth and development) in order to repay the loans. Many are tied to opening up their economies and being primarily commodity exporters, which, for poorer nations leads to a spiraling race to the bottom as each nation must compete against others to provide lower standards, reduced wages and cheaper resources to corporations and richer nations. This further increases poverty and dependency for most people.
People are hungry not because of lack of availability of food, or overpopulation, but because they are too poor to afford the food. Politics and economic conditions that have led to poverty and dependency around the world would not be alleviated if food production is further increased and provided to more people. Even non-emergency food aid, which seems a noble cause, is destructive, as it under-sells local farmers and can ultimately affect the entire economy of a poor nation. If the poorer nations are not given the means to produce their own food, if they are not allowed to use the tools of production for themselves, then poverty and dependency will continue.
The United Nations is one of the largest bodies involved in development issues around the world. However, it has many political issues and problem to contend with. But, despite this, it is also performing some much needed tasks around the world, through its many satellite organizations and entities, providing a means to realize the Declaration of Human Rights. Unfortunately though, it is not perfect and is negatively affected by the politics of powerful nations that wish to further their own interests. What does an ever-increasing number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) mean? NGOs are non-profit organizations which fill the gap where governments will not, or cannot function. In the past however, some NGOs from the wealthy nations have received a bad reputation in some developing nations because of things like arrogance, imposition of their views, being a foreign policy arm or tool of the original country and so on. Even in recent years some of these critcisms still hold. However, recently some new and old NGOs alike, have started to become more participatory and grassroots-oriented to help empower the people they are trying to help, to help themselves. This is in general a positive turn. Yet, the fact that there are so many NGOs popping up everywhere perhaps points to failures of international systems of politics, economics, market rights.
While the world is globalizing and the mainstream media in the developed nations point out that the world economy is booming (or, in periods of downturns, that the current forms of development and economic policies are the only ways for people to prosper), there are an increasing number of poor people who are missing out onthis apparent boom, while increasingly fewer people are becoming far more wealthy.
Question 28
28 what do you think is the purpose of the reading passage?
A to warn about the dangers of globalization
B to urge a change in international anti-poverty efforts
C to highlight the role of the IMF and World Bank
D to suggest that rich countries offer more aid to poor ones
Questions 29-34
Choose which of the answers (A-D) best completes the sentence according to the information in the reading passage. Write the appropriate letter (A-D) in boxes 29-30 on your answer sheet.
29 The world's three richest people...
A have become rich since entering the 21st century
B live on less than two dollars a day
C are better off than nearly one billion people
D together have more wealth than the GDP of 48 nations
30 The poor countries are poor because...
A the rich countries can enforce unequal trade agreements
B their governments are corrupt
C their governments are incompetent
D of unfavorable geographical factors
31 Competition between poor nations...
A brings them more IMF and World Bank loans
B is vital for economic growth and development
C makes them primarily commodity exporters
D leads to increases in poverty and dependency
32 The United Nations...
A channels its aid to poor countries through their governments
B is hampered by the politics of the rich countries
C furthers the interests of the rich countries
D is composed of satellite organizations and entities
33 NGOs...
A are becoming more responsive to poor people's needs
B are foreign policy tools of powerful countries
C are esential to the anti-poverty effort
D strive to realize the Declaration of Human Rights
34 The mainstream media in the developed nations...
A are paying attention to the increase in poverty
B are warning against economic downturns
C are complacent about the global economy
D ignore the role of non-governmental assistance
Questions 35-40
Complete the following summary by writing NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS taken from the passage for each number, to complete spaces 35-40. Write the words in boxes 35-40 on your answer sheet.
Example Answer
A tiny fraction of what the world spends on weapons could pay for the education of the world's children.
Summary: The Causes of Poverty
Among the many causes of the increase in poverty worldwide are the...35..of the IMF and World Bank, which will only lend money to poor countries on condition that the latter...36...Providing food is not the answer to the problem of hunger; allowing poor people to use the...37...is the answer. The United Nations is a major player in...38...worldwide, but the policies of...39...hinder its efforts. Where governments cannot or will not help, NGOs...40..., which indicates shortcomings in international political and economic systems.
Academic Reading Test 10
INTERNATIONAL ENGLISH LANGUAGE
TESTING SYSTEM
ACADEMIC READING
TEST 10
TIME ALLOWED:
NUMBER OF QUESTIONS:
1 hour40
Instructions
ALL ANSWERS MUST BE SRITTEN ON THE ANSWER SHEET
The test is divided as follows
Reading Passage 1 Questions 1-15
Reading Passage 2 Questions 16-30
Reading Passage 3 Questions 31-40
Start at the beginning of the test and work through it. You should answer all the questions. If you cannot do a particular question leave it and go on to the next. You can return to it later.
READING PASSAGE 1
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 1-15 which are based on Reading Passage 1.
A Way with Words
Can the language you use indicate the way you think, or help shape those thoughts? In the 1930s, American linguist Benjamin Lee Whorf argued that language did indeed affect thought. For instance, Eskimos, who talk about “snow” in at least seven different terms, must find our simplistic way of talking about it unthinkable, he suggested. While Whorf's views fell out of favor—especially his claim that language creates what amounts to a straitjacket for thought — they weren't forgotten. Now a group of cognitive psychologists has revived the search for the effects of language on the mind, with some provocative results.
Researchers first sought out Whorfian effects in the 1950s, looking at color vocabularies. Some languages chop the spectrum into just two categories of light and dark; others make finer, but not necessarily the same, distinctions. Do these linguistic patterns mean that speakers of separate languages perceive color in different ways? Apparently not. By the 1970s, psychologists concluded that linguistic and perceptual distinctions were independent of one another. Linguists remain convinced by Noam Chomsky of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who discovered that however disparate human languages seem, all share a common, basic structure, seemingly a distinct brain function. They reasoned that this controlled the grammar of speech, but was separate from other parts of the brain, such as those that governed perception or cognition in general—making it hard for language to have an effect on the latter.
Then in the 1980s, some researchers started to point out problems with the earlier work. For one, some noted that color perception is probably too biologically ngrained to show influence from language. Further, the results were linguistically biased, says John Lucy of the University of Chicago. Researchers assumed that speakers of other languages describe color the same way as English speakers just because their words matched up with color samples, ignoring subtle linguistic differences. In doing so,“basically you're sifting all the data according to your own preconceptions,” Lucy says. So their tests could never have found the language effects they sought. Looking for a better way to compare thoughts among language groups, Lucy studied the small group of Yucatec Mayans living in Mexico. English speakers tend to consider the shape or unit of a noun when talking. Living things or objects with a well-defined shape have their unit built into the word. We may talk about multiple “chairs,” because they all come in chair-shaped units. But sugar is “sugar,” whether it's one lump or two. Mayan speakers, on the other hand, do not refer to objects in plural form, so shape and unit are less ingrained into their speech. Accordingly, their language revolves more around what objects are made of than English; a “candle” to English speakers is a “long, thin wax” to Mayans.
Studying individuals who speak only one language can still leave research open to criticism, says Lera Boroditsky of MIT. She has focused on bilinguals. One study involved native German and Spanish speakers who also spoke English. Boroditsky and a colleague asked the study subjects to describe, in English, objects that were grammatically masculine or feminine in their native tongues. “Key,” for instance, is masculine in German and feminine in Spanish. The native German speakers called keys “hard,” “heavy,” “jagged,” etc., whereas the Spanish used words such as “lovely,” “shiny” and “tiny.” Native English speakers showed similar patterns after they learned the grammar system of a made-up language. In other words, just a brief change in the way people talk can create a measurable effect, Boroditsky says.
