饭饭TXT > 学习管理 > 《巴菲特年度报告1977-2003年》作者:巴菲特【完结】 > 巴菲特年度报告1977-2003.txt

这场经典的赛事,甚至还用慢动作播放精彩的第四节,我们以今年封面的颜色表 .65

当保险公司购买再保险时,他们买下的只是一纸承诺,而其有效性可能要在几十年

后才会受到考验,在再保险世界中,再没有任何一家公司可以比通用再保及国家产

险更具保障性,此外,不像其它大部分的再保业者,我们几乎将所有承担的风险自

留下来,因此我们的理赔能力,不必再依赖其它再保公司的能力或意愿,这种独立

的财务实力,在可预期一定会发生重大灾难的保险世界来说尤其重要。

. Regular readers of our annual reports know of Ajit Jain’s incredible

contributions to Berkshire’s prosperity over the past 18 years. He continued

to pour it on in 2003. With a staff of only 23, Ajit runs one of the world’s

largest reinsurance operations, specializing in mammoth and unusual risks.

经常阅读本公司年报的读者都知道Ajit Jain过去18年对于Berkshire的贡献是如此之

大,2003年他依然继续付出,在只有23位同仁的协助之下,Ajit管理全世界最大的

再保险业务,专门处理超大型非寻常的风险。

Often, these involve assuming catastrophe risks – say, the threat of a large

California earthquake – of a size far greater than any other reinsurer will

accept. This means Ajit’s results (and Berkshire’s) will be lumpy. You should,

therefore, expect his operation to have an occasional horrible year. Over time,

however, you can be confident of a terrific result from this one-of-a-kind

manager.

这些业务通常包含承担一般再保公司无法承担的灾难风险,比如说加州大地震,这

也意味Ajit以及Berkshire的绩效变动将会相当的大,所以大家最好有心里准备,在

未来的某些年度,Ajit的表现可能会非常的差,不过就长期而言,大家可以相信,

堪称一时之选的Ajit绝对会是交出优异的成绩单。

Ajit writes some very unusual policies. Last year, for example, PepsiCo

promoted a drawing that offered participants a chance to win a $1 billion prize.

Understandably, Pepsi wished to lay off this risk, and we were the logical party

to assume it. So we wrote a $1 billion policy, retaining the risk entirely for our

own account. Because the prize, if won, was payable over time, our exposure in

present-value terms was $250 million. (I helpfully suggested that any winner be

paid $1 a year for a billion years, but that proposal didn’t fly.) The drawing was

held on September 14. Ajit and I held our breath, as did the finalist in the

contest, and we left happier than he. PepsiCo has renewed for a repeat contest

in 2004.

Ajit签过许多相当特别的保单,比方说去年百事可乐曾经举办过一次摸彩,参加者

有机会可以获得10亿美元的大奖,我们可以理解,百事可乐一定会想要分散这样的

风险,而我们正是最合适的人选,就这样我们签下了一笔保额10亿美元的保单,并

独立承担所有的风险,依照游戏规则这笔奖金如果真的被抽到,将会分期支付,因

此我们实际承担的风险现值只有2.5亿美元,(我曾希望得奖者可以分10亿年领取奖

金,不过这样的提案显然不被接受),正式的摸彩活动在9月14日举行,Ajit跟我屏

息以待,当然最后的参赛者也一样,所幸最后笑着离开的是我们,百事可乐打算在

2004年再度举办这项活动。

. GEICO was a fine insurance company when Tony Nicely took over as CEO

in 1992. Now it is a great one. During his tenure, premium volume has

increased from $2.2 billion to $8.1 billion, and our share of the personalauto

market has grown from 2.1% to 5.0%. More important, GEICO has paired

these gains with outstanding underwriting performance.

在1992年Tony Nicely接手时,GEICO就已经是一家相当优秀的保险公司,现在它则

蜕变成一家伟大的公司,在他任职期间,保费收入从原先的22亿美元成长到目前的

81亿美元,而我们在小客车保险的市场占有率从2.1%成长为5.0%,更重要的是,

GEICO更还拥有优异的核保成绩。

(We now pause for a commercial)

(中场休息时间来段广告)

It’s been 67 years since Leo Goodwin created a great business idea at GEICO,

one designed to save policyholders significant money. Go to Geico.com or call 1-

800-847-7536 to see what we can do for you.

自从67年前,在Leo Goodwin的创意下建立了GEICO保险公司后,这家公司已为成

千上万的保户节省了无数的金钱,请上Geico.com网站或是打电话到1-800-847-

7536,看看我们能为你做些什么。

(End of commercial)

(广告结束)

In 2003, both the number of inquiries coming into GEICO and its closure rate on

these increased significantly. As a result our preferred policyholder count grew

8.2%, and our standard and non-standard policies grew 21.4%.

2003年,不论是询问GEICO的电话以及成交率都大幅提升,总计我们特级保户人数

成长了8.2%,标准以及非标准的保单则成长了21.4%。

GEICO’s business growth creates a never-ending need for more employees and

facilities. Our most recent expansion, announced in December, is a customer

service center in – I’m delighted to say – Buffalo. Stan Lipsey, the publisher of

our Buffalo News, was instrumental in bringing the city and GEICO together.

GEICO的业务不断地成长使得我们必须一再扩充人员编制与配备,我很高兴向大家

报告,最近的一次扩编是在去年12月,我们在水牛城设立一个客户服务中心,水牛

城日报的发行人-Stan Lipsey对于引导GEICO进入水牛城有重大贡献。

The key figure in this matter, however, was Governor George Pataki. His

leadership and tenacity are why Buffalo will have 2,500 new jobs when our

expansion is fully rolled out. Stan, Tony, and I – along with Buffalo – thank him

for his help.

这整起事件的主角,当属州长George Pataki,在他的领导与坚持之下,我们的扩编

计画得以完全实现,水牛城也因此增加了2,500个就业机会,Stan、Tony以及我个

人也包含水牛城都衷心感谢他的大力协助。

. Berkshire’s smaller insurers had another terrific year. This group, run by Rod

Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney, Don Towle and Don Wurster, increased its

float by 41%, while delivering an excellent underwriting profit. These men,

though operating in unexciting ways, produce truly exciting results.

Berkshire几个规模较小的保险事业同样也缔造了惊人的成绩,这个由Rod Eldred、

John Kizer、Tom Nerney、Don Towle及Don Wurster领导的团体,浮存金成长了

41%,同时也维持优良的核保绩效,这些人的工作内容或许平淡无奇,但所创造的

获利却极其惊人。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

We should point out again that in any given year a company writing long-tail

insurance (coverages giving rise to claims that are often settled many years

after the loss-causing event takes place) can report almost any earnings that

the CEO desires. Too often the industry has reported wildly inaccurate figures

by misstating liabilities. Most of the mistakes have been innocent. Sometimes,

however, they have been intentional, their object being to fool investors and

regulators. Auditors and actuaries have usually failed to prevent both varieties

of misstatement.

我们必须再一次指出,一个签发长尾型保险的公司(保单理赔范围通常在损失事件发

生好几年后才会理赔的保单),其经理几乎可以随心所欲的操控其短期的盈余数字,

这行业因为负债错估而导致报表数字不真实可说是司空见惯的事,大部分的错误或

许都是出于无心,但有时也有可能是故意的,其目的无非是想要误导投资人以及主

管机关,而会计师以及精算师往往无法预防此类的事件发生。

I have failed on occasion too, particularly in not spotting Gen Re’s unwitting

underreserving a few years back. Not only did that mean we reported

inaccurate figures to you, but the error also resulted in our paying very

substantial taxes earlier than was necessary. Aaarrrggghh. I told you last year,

however, that I thought our current reserving was at appropriate levels. So far,

that judgment is holding up.

我自己也曾发生过失误,其中尤以未能发现通用再保几年前损失准备提列不当的过

失,这不但代表我们提供不正确的报表数字给各位,同时也意味我们多支付大量税

金了给政府,啊!(惨叫一声),去年我不是才告诉各位我们目前提列的准备还是适当

吗  目前这样的判断可能要暂时候住。

Here are Berkshire’s pre-tax underwriting results by segment:

以下是Berkshire税前的核保成绩数字:

Gain (Loss) in $ millions

2003 2002

Gen Re.................................................................. $ 145 $(1,393)

Ajit’s business excluding retroactive contracts ..... 1,434 980

Ajit’s retroactive contracts* .................................... (387) (433)

GEICO...................................................................... 452 416

Other Primary ............................................................ 74 32

Total ................................................................... $1,718 $ (398)

*These contracts were explained on page 10 of the 2002 annual report, available on the

Internet at www.berkshirehathaway.com. In brief, this segment consists of a few jumbo

policies that are likely to produce underwriting losses (which are capped) but also provide

unusually large amounts of float.

这些合约已经在2002年的年报中解释过了,大家可以到www.berkshirehathaway.com.找到相关的

信息,简单的来说,这个部门包含了一些超大额的保单,极有可能产生的核保损失(所幸设有上限)

但同样的我们也因此取得大量的浮存金。

Regulated Utility Businesses

公用事业

Through MidAmerican Energy Holdings, we own an 80.5% (fully diluted) interest

in a wide variety of utility operations. The largest are (1) Yorkshire Electricity

and Northern Electric, whose 3.7 million electric customers make it the third

largest distributor of electricity in the U.K.; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which

serves 689,000 electric customers in Iowa and; (3) Kern River and Northern

Natural pipelines, which carry 7.8% of the natural gas transported in the United

States.

透过美中能源控股公司,我们持有众多公用事业80.5%(按完全稀释基础)的权益,其

中主要的项目包括(1)拥有370万用户,英国第三大的电力公司约克夏电力以及北方

电力(2)在爱荷华州拥有68.9万用户的美中能源公司(3)肯特河及北方天然等两条天

然气输送管线,约占全美7.8%的天然气运能。

Berkshire has three partners, who own the remaining 19.5%: Dave Sokol and

Greg Abel, the brilliant managers of the business, and Walter Scott, a long-time

friend of mine who introduced me to the company. Because MidAmerican is

subject to the Public Utility Holding Company Act (“PUHCA”), Berkshire’s voting

interest is limited to 9.9%. Walter has the controlling vote.

剩下的19.5%权益则由Berkshire三位合作伙伴所持有,分别是Dave Sokol及Greg

Abel,他们是美中能源杰出的专业经理人,另外一位是Walter Scott,他是我个人

长期的好友,也是他引荐我投资这家公司的,由于美中能源公司受限于公用事业控

股公司法(PUHCA)的规定,限制Berkshire的投票权最高只能达到9.9%,所以Walter

他拥有绝对的控制权。

Our limited voting interest forces us to account for MidAmerican in our financial

statements in an abbreviated manner. Instead of our fully including its assets,

liabilities, revenues and expenses in our statements, we record only a one-line

entry in both our balance sheet and income account. It’s likely that some day,

perhaps soon, either PUHCA will be repealed or accounting rules will change.

Berkshire’s consolidated figures would then take in all of MidAmerican,

including the substantial debt it utilizes.

受限的投票权使得我们仅能以相当简略的方式将美中能源的财务数字列入财务报

表,而无法将该公司所有的资产负债以及营收损益列入Berkshire报表,依照会计原

则我们只能按投资比例认列该公司的投资金额及损益,或许在不久的将来,PUHCA

会被取消或是会计原则有重大改变,那么届时美中能源所有的财务数字就会被列入

Berkshire的合并报表之中,当然也包含其大量的融资负债在内。

The size of this debt (which is not now, nor will it be, an obligation of

Berkshire) is entirely appropriate. MidAmerican’s diverse and stable utility

operations assure that, even under harsh economic conditions, aggregate

earnings will be ample to very comfortably service all debt.

美中能源债务的规模(目前不是,以后也不会是Berkshire的责任)还算是适当,其多

元化且稳定的公用事业营运将可以确保即使在最严峻的经济情势下,都能够累积足

够的盈余来支应所有的债务。

At yearend, $1.578 billion of MidAmerican’s most junior debt was payable to

Berkshire. This debt has allowed acquisitions to be financed without our three

partners needing to increase their already substantial investments in

MidAmerican. By charging 11% interest, Berkshire is compensated fairly for

putting up the funds needed for purchases, while our partners are spared

dilution of their equity interests.

截至年底,在美中能源大部分的次顺位债券中,15.78亿美元是对Berkshire的债

务,这笔债务让美中能源在进行购并时,可以不必再向其它三位已投入大笔资金的

主要大股东掏钱,而藉由收取11%的利息,Berkshire获得了提供资金所应得的合理

对待,此外其它三位股东也免于稀释个人在这家公司的持股比例。

MidAmerican also owns a significant non-utility business, Home Services of

America, the second largest real estate broker in the country. Unlike our utility

operations, this business is highly cyclical, but nevertheless one we view

enthusiastically. We have an exceptional manager, Ron Peltier, who, through

both his acquisition and operational skills, is building a brokerage powerhouse.

美中能源另外还拥有一些非公用事业,那就是全美第二大不动产中介商-美国居家服

务,不同于公用事业,这行业的景气波动相当的大,但我们仍然对其抱予热烈的期

望,我们拥有一位优异的经理人-Ron Peltier,透过其经营及购并长才,正逐渐建立

起一个房屋中介王国。

Last year, Home Services participated in $48.6 billion of transactions, a gain of

$11.7 billion from 2002. About 23% of the increase came from four acquisitions

made during the year. Through our 16 brokerage firms – all of which retain their

local identities – we employ 16,343 brokers in 16 states. Home Services is

almost certain to grow substantially in the next decade as we continue to

acquire leading localized operations.

去年居家服务总计参与了486亿美元的交易案,较2002年又大大地成长了117亿,其

中23%的成长来自于四件新的购并案,经由全美各地16个中介公司,他们全都保留

原有公司名称,我们在16个州聘雇了16,343位业务人员,往后在未来十年居家服务

仍将藉由购并的方式继续大幅成长。

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Here’s a tidbit for fans of free enterprise. On March 31, 1990, the day electric

utilities in the U.K. were denationalized, Northern and Yorkshire had 6,800

employees in functions these companies continue today to perform. Now they

employ 2,539. Yet the companies are serving about the same number of

customers as when they were government owned and are distributing more

electricity.

这里有一则相信所有企业自由化支持者都会珍惜的宝贵新闻,1990年3月1日,英国

的国营电力事业正式民营化,当时北方与约克夏电力总共有6,800名员工,时至今

日,在营运规模丝毫未缩减的情况下,员工降为2,539人,客户数与国营时相当,

而输送的电力甚至比以往更多。

This is not, it should be noted, a triumph of deregulation. Prices and earnings

continue to be regulated in a fair manner by the government, just as they

should be. It is a victory, however, for those who believe that profit-motivated

managers, even though they recognize that the benefits will largely flow to

customers, will find efficiencies that government never will.

必须强调的是这并非是自由化的胜利,价格以及盈余目前仍受到政府合理的管制,

这点合情合理,这个胜利系属于那些相信以营利为导向的经理人,虽然所节省的利

益大都回馈到客户的身上,所能展现以往政府自营时所未有的效率。

Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operations:

以下是美中能源的几项重要数据:

Earnings (in $ millions)

2003 2002

U.K. Utilities ........................................................... $ 289 $ 267

Iowa........................................................................... 269 241

Pipelines .................................................................... 261 104

Home Services............................................................ 113 70

Other (Net) ................................................................ 144 108

Earnings before corporate interest and tax ............. 1,076 790

Corporate Interest, other than to Berkshire............... (225) (192)

Interest Payments to Berkshire ................................. (184) (118)

Tax........................................................................... (251) (100)

Net Earnings........................................................... $ 416 $ 380

Earnings Applicable to Berkshire*............................ $ 429 $ 359

Debt Owed to Others............................................ 10,296 10,286

Debt Owed to Berkshire ......................................... 1,578 1,728

*Includes interest paid to Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $118 in 2003 and $75 in

2002.

*包含支付给Berkshire的利息(扣除所得税后),2003年及2002年分别为1.18亿及0.75亿美元。

Finance and Financial Products

财务及金融商品

This sector includes a wide-ranging group of activities. Here’s some

commentary on the most important.

这个部门包含各种不同的营运,以下择要说明如下。

. I manage a few opportunistic strategies in AAA fixed-income securities that

have been quite profitable in the last few years. These opportunities come and

go – and at present, they are going. We sped their departure somewhat last

year, thereby realizing 24% of the capital gains we show in the table that

follows.

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