to double the volume of any other home furnishings store in the
country.
当Fran Blumkin帮助Friedman家族创造波仙珠宝店的记录时,她的先生
Louie再搭配儿子Irv与Ron,同时也在内布拉斯加家具店创造记录,1990年
单店的营业额1.59亿美元,较前一年度增加4%,虽然没有精确的统计数字,
但我们相信NFM的销售量最少是全美其它同业的两倍以上。
The NFM formula for success parallels that of Borsheim's. First,
operating costs are rock-bottom - 15% in 1990 against about 40% for
Levitz, the country's largest furniture retailer, and 25% for Circuit City
Stores, the leading discount retailer of electronics and appliances.
Second, NFM's low costs allow the business to price well below all
competitors. Indeed, major chains, knowing what they will face, steer
clear of Omaha. Third, the huge volume generated by our bargain
prices allows us to carry the broadest selection of merchandise
available anywhere.
NFM成功的方程式与波仙十分的相近,首先经营成本实在是有够低,1990年
相较于全美最大家具零售商Levitz的40%与家用电器折扣量贩店Circuit City
的25%,NFM竟只有15%,第二也由于成本低,所以NFM的产品订价就可以
比竞争同业低许多,事实上许多通路商也很清楚这一点,所以他们唯一的做法就
是尽量远离奥玛哈地区,第三便宜的价格导致销量大好,从而可以让我们备有更
多别处所看不到,种类齐全的产品。
Some idea of NFM's merchandising power can be gleaned from a
recent report of consumer behavior in Des Moines, which showed that
NFM was Number 3 in popularity among 20 furniture retailers serving
that city. That may sound like no big deal until you consider that 19 of
those retailers are located in Des Moines, whereas our store is 130
miles away. This leaves customers driving a distance equal to that
between Washington and Philadelphia in order to shop with us, even
though they have a multitude of alternatives next door. In effect, NFM,
like Borsheim's, has dramatically expanded the territory it serves - not
by the traditional method of opening new stores but rather by creating
an irresistible magnet that employs price and selection to pull in the
crowds.
有关NFM的商品魔力可以从最近Des Moines地区的消费者行为调查报告中看
出端倪,NFM在该地区所有的20家家具零售商当中排名第三,这讯息乍听之
下或许没什么了不得,但你可知道其它19家都位在Des Moines,除了NFM
离该地区足足有130英哩远,这距离代表当地的居民虽然在附近有更多的选
择,却还是情愿大老远开车走相当从华盛顿到费城的距离,只为了买我们的产
品,事实上NFM就像波仙一样,急速地扩张其版图范围,靠的不是传统地展店
模式,而是利用价格与种类散发出强烈的磁场,吸引客户远道而来。
Last year at the Mart there occurred an historic event: I
experienced a counterrevelation. Regular readers of this report know
that I have long scorned the boasts of corporate executives about
synergy, deriding such claims as the last refuge of scoundrels
defending foolish acquisitions. But now I know better: In Berkshire's
first synergistic explosion, NFM put a See's candy cart in the store late
last year and sold more candy than that moved by some of the
full-fledged stores See's operates in California. This success
contradicts all tenets of retailing. With the Blumkins, though, the
impossible is routine.
去年在家具店发生了一件重大的历史事件,使我经历了一次自我反省,经常阅读
我们年报的读者应该都知道长久以来我对于企业主管动不动就强调的企业综效
饬之以鼻,认为这不过是经营阶层对于愚蠢购并案所作的推托之词,不过现在我
学乖了,在Berkshire我们创造出第一个企业综效,NFM在去年底决定在店内
摆设喜斯的糖果车,结果所卖出的糖果甚至比加州的旗舰店还要多,这次的成功
打破了所有零售业的定律,有B太太家族在,所有不可能的事都变成家常便饭。
o At See's, physical volume set a record in 1990 - but only barely
and only because of good sales early in the year. After the invasion of
Kuwait, mall traffic in the West fell. Our poundage volume at Christmas
dropped slightly, though our dollar sales were up because of a 5%
price increase.
提到喜斯糖果,1990年的销售数量又创新高,不过成长相当有限且主要是拜年
初业绩大好所致,在伊拉克入侵科威特之后,西方世界的交通活动大减,使得圣
诞节的销售数量稍微下滑,虽然因为调整价格的关系,使得我们的营收成长了
5%。
That increase, and better control of expenses, improved profit
margins. Against the backdrop of a weak retailing environment, Chuck
Huggins delivered outstanding results, as he has in each of the
nineteen years we have owned See's. Chuck's imprint on the business
- a virtual fanaticism about quality and service - is visible at all of our
225 stores.
销售金额增加加上营业费用控制得当,获利也有所改善,面对零售业大环境不佳
的窘境,就如同过去他接手后的19年,Chuck Huggins还是一如往常递出漂
亮的成绩单,Chuck对于品质与服务的坚持,在我们所有225家分店中都看得
到。
One happening in 1990 illustrates the close bond between See's
and its customers. After 15 years of operation, our store in
Albuquerque was endangered: The landlord would not renew our lease,
wanting us instead to move to an inferior location in the mall and even
so to pay a much higher rent. These changes would have wiped out
the store's profit. After extended negotiations got us nowhere, we set
a date for closing the store.
1990年所发生的一件事最足以说明喜斯糖果与客户之间紧密的关系,经过15
年的营运,我们在Albuquerque的分店经营发生危机,地主不愿与我们继续签
订租约,反而希望我们搬到购物商场地点较差的摊位,并且还要调涨租金,如此
一来将会把我们仅有的利润给吃光,经过协调不成,迫不得已我们贴出的即将停
业的告示。
On her own, the store's manager, Ann Filkins, then took action,
urging customers to protest the closing. Some 263 responded by
sending letters and making phone calls to See's headquarters in San
Francisco, in some cases threatening to boycott the mall. An alert
reporter at the Albuquerque paper picked up the story. Supplied with
this evidence of a consumer uprising, our landlord offered us a
satisfactory deal. (He, too, proved susceptible to a counterrevelation.)
之后靠着店经理Ann Filkins个人的努力,采取行动敦促客户们像房东表达抗
议,总计有263位客户写信或打电话到喜斯位于旧金山的总部,有的甚至扬言
要抵制购物商场,甚至引起当地记者的注意,大幅刊载这项消息,有了众多客户
的支持,房东最后终于妥协,提供一个令我们满意的条件(我想他应该也得到一
个自我反省的机会教育)。
Chuck subsequently wrote personal letters of thanks to every
loyalist and sent each a gift certificate. He repeated his thanks in a
newspaper ad that listed the names of all 263. The sequel: Christmas
sales in Albuquerque were up substantially.
事后Chuck对喜斯所有忠实的支持者一一写给每个人亲笔的感谢函,并在报纸
上刊登所有263位客户名单,后续的发展是我们在Albuquerque分店的业绩
大幅成长。
o Charlie and I were surprised at developments this past year in the
media industry, including newspapers such as our Buffalo News. The
business showed far more vulnerability to the early stages of a
recession than has been the case in the past. The question is whether
this erosion is just part of an aberrational cycle - to be fully made up
in the next upturn - or whether the business has slipped in a way that
permanently reduces intrinsic business values.
查理跟我对于过去几年媒体事业的发展感到相当的意外,包含水牛城日报等报纸
在内,这个产业现在因为经济衰退所受到的伤害,要比过去的经验要来的严重许
多,问题是这种退化只是因为景气循环的暂时失调呢? (意味着下次景气翻扬会再
回复),或是有可能一去不复返,企业的价值就此永远地流失掉。
Since I didn't predict what has happened, you may question the
value of my prediction about what will happen. Nevertheless, I'll
proffer a judgment: While many media businesses will remain
economic marvels in comparison with American industry generally,
they will prove considerably less marvelous than I, the industry, or
lenders thought would be the case only a few years ago.
因为我没能预料到已经发生的事,所以你可能会质疑我预测未来的能力,尽管如
此我还是提供个人的判断供大家参考,虽然相较于美国其它产业,媒体事业仍然
维持一个不错的经济荣景,不过还是远不如我个人、产业界或是借款人几年前的
预期。
The reason media businesses have been so outstanding in the
past was not physical growth, but rather the unusual pricing power
that most participants wielded. Now, however, advertising dollars are
growing slowly. In addition, retailers that do little or no media
advertising (though they sometimes use the Postal Service) have
gradually taken market share in certain merchandise categories. Most
important of all, the number of both print and electronic advertising
channels has substantially increased. As a consequence, advertising
dollars are more widely dispersed and the pricing power of ad vendors
has diminished. These circumstances materially reduce the intrinsic
value of our major media investments and also the value of our
operating unit, Buffalo News - though all remain fine businesses.
媒体事业过去只所以能有如此优异的表现,并不是因为销售数量上的成长,而主
要是靠所有的业者运用非比寻常的价格主导力量,不过时至今日,广告预算成长
已大不如前,此外逐渐取得商品销售市场占有率的一般零售通路商根本就不做媒
体广告(虽然有时他们会做邮购服务),最重要的是印刷与电子广告媒体通路大幅
增加,因此广告预算被大幅度地分散稀释,广告商的议价能力逐渐丧失殆尽,这
种的现象大大地减低我们所持有几个主要媒体事业投资与水牛城报纸的实际价
值,虽然大体而言,他们都还算是不错的企业。
Notwithstanding the problems, Stan Lipsey's management of the
News continues to be superb. During 1990, our earnings held up
much better than those of most metropolitan papers, falling only 5%.
In the last few months of the year, however, the rate of decrease was
far greater.
不看这些问题,Stan Lipsey的新闻事业经营还是相当地杰出,1990年我们的
盈余比起其它主要都会地区的报纸要好的多,大概只下滑了5%,虽然去年有几
个月份,减少的幅度稍微大了一点。
I can safely make two promises about the News in 1991: (1) Stan
will again rank at the top among newspaper publishers; and (2)
earnings will fall substantially. Despite a slowdown in the demand for
newsprint, the price per ton will average significantly more in 1991
and the paper's labor costs will also be considerably higher. Since
revenues may meanwhile be down, we face a real squeeze.
展望1991年我可以很安心地向大家做出两个保证(1)Stan将会继续在所有的主
要新闻出版者当中名列前茅(2)盈余一定会大幅缩水,因为虽然新闻印刷需求大
幅缩水,但每吨印刷成本与劳工成本还是会大幅增加,再加上营收下降,面临两
头挤压的窘境。
Profits may be off but our pride in the product remains. We
continue to have a larger "news hole" - the portion of the paper
devoted to news - than any comparable paper. In 1990, the proportion
rose to 52.3% against 50.1% in 1989. Alas, the increase resulted from
a decline in advertising pages rather than from a gain in news pages.
Regardless of earnings pressures, we will maintain at least a 50% news
hole. Cutting product quality is not a proper response to adversity.
获利虽然缩水,但我们对于产品依然感到骄傲,比起其它相同规模的报纸,我们
拥有超高的新闻比率-新闻占报纸所有版面的比率,从1989年的50.1%增加为
52.3%,只可惜增加的原因是因为广告量的减少,而不是新闻版面的增加,虽然
受到盈余不小的压力,但我们还是会坚持50%的新闻比率,降低产品的品质不
是身处逆境最好的应对方式。
o The news at Fechheimer, our manufacturer and retailer of
uniforms, is all good with one exception: George Heldman, at 69, has
decided to retire. I tried to talk him out of it but he had one irrefutable
argument: With four other Heldmans - Bob, Fred, Gary and Roger - to
carry on, he was leaving us with an abundance of managerial talent.
接下来是我们制服的制造与销售商费区海默的好消息,除了一个坏消息之外,那
就是69岁的George Heldman决定要退休,我曾经试着说服他,不过他有一
项令人无法拒绝的理由,因为他留下了其它四位Heldmans家族的成员-Bob、
Fred、Gary与Roger做接班。
Fechheimer's operating performance improved considerably in
1990, as many of the problems we encountered in integrating the
large acquisition we made in 1988 were moderated or solved. However,
several unusual items caused the earnings reported in the "Sources"
table to be flat. In the retail operation, we continue to add stores and
now have 42 in 22 states. Overall, prospects appear excellent for
Fechheimer.
费区海默的经营绩效在1990年又大幅增进,因为先前在1988年大型的购并所
产生的问题已逐渐获得解决,然而由于几个特殊的事件使得我们今年的盈余表现
平平,在零售的部份,我们持续地拓展店面,目前在全美22个州拥有42家店,
总言之,我们对于费区海默的前景仍然相当看好。
o At Scott Fetzer, Ralph Schey runs 19 businesses with a mastery
few bring to running one. In addition to overseeing three entities listed
on page 6 - World Book, Kirby, and Scott Fetzer Manufacturing - Ralph
directs a finance operation that earned a record $12.2 million pre-tax
in 1990.
轮到史考特飞兹,Ralph Schey经营19家企业的手法比起一般人经营一个还娴
熟,除了后面所叙述的三家企业-世界百科全书、寇比吸尘器与史考特飞兹制造
公司之外,Ralph甚至还掌管一家年税前获利1,220万美元的财务公司。
Were Scott Fetzer an independent company, it would rank close to
the top of the Fortune 500 in terms of return on equity, although it is
not in businesses that one would expect to be economic champs. The
superior results are directly attributable to Ralph.
如果史考特飞兹是一个独立的集团,它在财富五百大股东权益报酬率的排名一定
能名列前茅,虽然它所处的产业很难出现耀眼的明星,但这些难得的成绩全都要
归功于Ralph。
At World Book, earnings improved on a small decrease in unit
volume. The costs of our decentralization move were considerably less
in 1990 than 1989 and the benefits of decentralization are being
realized. World Book remains far and away the leader in United States
encyclopedia sales and we are growing internationally, though from a
small base.
世界百科全书,虽然销售数量略微下滑,但盈余却变佳,1990年因分散决策中
心的做法所须负担的成本较1989年减少,而其所带来的效益却逐渐显现,世界
百科全书在全美百科全书销售中依旧独占鳌头,至于海外市场方面虽然基础规模
较小,但却持续地成长中。
Kirby unit volume grew substantially in 1990 with the help of our
new vacuum cleaner, The Generation 3, which was an unqualified
success. Earnings did not grow as fast as sales because of both
start-up expenditures and "learning-curve" problems we encountered
in manufacturing the new product. International business, whose
dramatic growth I described last year, had a further 20% sales gain in
1990. With the aid of a recent price increase, we expect excellent
earnings at Kirby in 1991.
受惠于新款的真空吸尘器,寇比在1990年的销售数量大增,第三代的推出无疑
是一大胜利,由于先期开发成本与新产品制造所面临的学习曲线问题,使得获利
增加不若营收成长的幅度,海外市场方面相较于去年爆炸性的成长,今年再度有
20%的成长,而由于最近产品价格再度调涨,我们预期寇比在1991年的获利应
该会更好。
Within the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, Campbell Hausfeld,
its largest unit, had a particularly fine year. This company, the
country's leading producer of small and medium-sized air
compressors, achieved record sales of $109 million, more than 30% of
which came from products introduced during the last five years.
至于史考特飞兹制造公司部份,最大的单位Campbell Hausfeld今年的表现特
别好,它是全美中小型空气压缩机的领导品牌,年度营业额创下1.09亿美元的
新高,其中有30%的营收系来自于最近五年新推出的产品。
* * * * * * * * * * * *
In looking at the figures for our non-insurance operations, you
will see that net worth increased by only $47 million in 1990 although
earnings were $133 million. This does not mean that our managers are
in any way skimping on investments that strengthen their business
franchises or that promote growth. Indeed, they diligently pursue both
goals.
在看我们非保险业的营运数字时,大家可能会好奇为何我们年度的盈余有1.33
亿美元,但净值却只增加了4,700万美元呢? 这并不代表我们的经理人用任何
方法来掩盖其公司的经济实力或成长潜力,事实上他们无不努力追求这些目标。
But they also never deploy capital without good reason. The result:
In the past five years they have funneled well over 80% of their
earnings to Charlie and me for use in new business and investment
opportunities.
不过他们也从不会毫无理由地浪费资金,过去五年以来他们将所赚得的80%盈
余送回母公司,交给查理跟我运用在新的事业与投资机会之上。
Insurance Operations
保险业营运
Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting
key figures for the property-casualty insurance industry:
下表是产物意外险业的最新的几项重要指数
Yearly Change Combined Ratio Yearly Change Inflation Rate
in Premiums After Policyholder in Incurred Measured by