对许多人来说，科学和技术占用了大量资金，目的是让有钱人制造供他们娱乐的玩具。比如，有人就对马斯克的企业提出了这样的批评。但是，透过历史的视角，我们可以看到有钱人制造的“玩具”最终可能会变成科学和技术上的重大进步，让所有人受益。因为拥有了足够的财富，所以富兰克林选择提前退休，并花5年的时间学习电学，最终他取得了科学突破。在爱迪生建造的第一批发电站中，有一部分是在私人住宅中，甚至是在富人的船上。当然，在那个时代，几乎所有的投资都来自有钱人。马斯克说过，昂贵的特斯拉Model S汽车的开发将引领人们开发更便宜的电动汽车。现在看来，他的预言已经得到了证实。革命开始的方式和地点并不重要，最重要的是它的结果，即它是否带来了真正的进步。 [31]
同样，如果认真考虑历史证据，关于政府作用的意识形态之争就可以化解。随着时间的推移，政府的角色发生了巨大变化，然而政府在设定和服务当时的主要目标方面常常会取得成功。关键的问题在于实践远比纯粹的意识形态之争要有用得多。
这本书讲述的这些历史，目的是想告诉读者电力业务在发展过程中经历的成功和失败。如果透过广角镜头审视历史，就可以把历史视为未来的指南。尽管如此，我们也无法准确预测未来将会如何，也无法保证人们会从历史中吸取教训。我唯一可以保证的是，无论发生什么，这都是一部关于电的科学史。
[1] Aldous Huxley,“Case of Voluntary Ignorance,” inCollected Essays (New York:Harper Brothers,1959).
[2] Huxley,“Case of Voluntary Ignorance.”
[3] “History of Zip2,”Ecorner: Stanford University’s Entrepreneurship Corner,October 8,2003,accessed October 1,2016,<http://ecorner.stanford.edu/authorMaterialInfo.html?mid=397>;Ashlee Vance,Elon Musk: Tesla,SpaceX,and the Quest for a Fantastic Future (New York: HarperCollins,2015),72,84 –89;“Founding of PayPal,”Ecorner: Stanford University’s Entrepreneurship Corner.October 8,2004,accessed October 1,2016,<http://ecorner.stanford.edu/videos/378/Founding-of-Paypal>.
[4] “Completed Missions,”SpaceX,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.spacex.com/missions>;Andrew Chaikin,“Is SpaceX Changing the Rocket Equation?,” Air & Space Smithsonian,January 2012,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-changing-the-rocket-equation-132285884/?no-ist>;“SpaceX Successfully Launches Falcon 1 to Orbit,” SpaceX,September 28,2008,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/spacex-successfully-launches-falcon-1-orbit>;William Jacobs,“Launch Systems Rockets Priced to Move,” Popular Science267,no.5,November 2004;William Harwood,“Experts Applaud SpaceX Rocket Landing,Potential Savings,” CBS News,December 22,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.cbsnews.com/news/experts-applaud-spacex-landing-cautious-about-outlook/>;Jeffrey Kluger,“Things to Know About SpaceX,”Time,accessed October 1,2016,<http://time.com/space-x-ten-things-to-know/>;Vance,Elon Musk,5.
[5] Fred Lambert,“SpaceX Transferred Novel Welding Techniques and Equipment to Tesla Motors,”electrek,May 24,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<https://electrek.co/2015/05/24/spacex-transferred-novel-welding-techniques-and-equipment-to-tesla-motors/>;“Tesla Gigafactory,”Tesla,accessed October 1,2016,<https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory>;Jonathan O’Connell,“The Gamble on Tesla’s Gigafactory in the Nevada Desert,”Washington Post,April 10,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/the-gamble-on-teslas-gigafactory-is-a-big-one--in-many-fashions/2015/04/10/50e9de40-d4c8-11e4-a62f-ee745911a4ff_story.html>
[6] Maria Galucci,“SolarCity to Build World’s Largest Solar Panel Plant on U.S.Turf,Spurring Solar Manufacturing Revival,”International Business Times,June 17,2014,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.ibtimes.com/solarcity-build-worlds-largest-solar-panel-plant-us-turf-spurring-solar-manufacturing-1603556>;Apurba Sakti,Raanan Miller,and Fikile Brushett,“What’s Cost Got to Do with It? An Assessment of Tesla’s Powerwall,”MIT Energy Initiative,June 12,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://energy.mit.edu/news/whats-cost-got-to-do-with-it/>;Dana Hull,“Tesla Powerwalls for Home Energy Storage Hit U.S.Market,”Bloomberg,May 4,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/tesla-powerwalls-for-home-energy-storage-are-hitting-u-s-market>.
[7] 140个字符指的是推特网对推文的字数限制。——译者注。
[8] Vance,Elon Musk,349;Jerry Hirsch,“Elon Musk’s Growing Empire Is Fueled by$4.9 Billion in Government Subsidies,”LA Times,June 1,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-2015053-story.html#page=1>;Daniel Wiesfield,“Peter Thiel at Yale: We Wanted Flying Cars,Instead We Got 140 Characters,”Yale School of Management,April 27,2013,accessed October 1,2016,<http://som.yale.edu/peter-thiel-yale-we-wanted-flyin-cars-instead-we-got-140-characters>;see,for example,Nicole Allan,“Who Will Tomorrow’s Historians Consider Today’s Greatest Inventors?,”Atlantic,November 2013,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/11/the-inventors/309534/>.
[9] Charley Grant,“More Than Money at Stake in Tesla’s SolarCity Deal,”Wall Street Journal,September 26,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-money-at-stake-in-teslas-solarcity-deal-1474903454>;Adam Hartung,“Why Investors Should Support the Tesla-SolarCity Merger,”Forbes,September 23,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2016/09/23/why-investors-should-support-the-tesla-solarcity-merger/#33263c784c32>.
[10] Dana Hull,“Tesla Breakup with Mobileye Turns Ugly,”Bloomberg,September 16,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-16/tesla-says-mobileye-tried-to-block-its-auto-vision-capability>.
[11] Seth Fiegerman,“Samsung Won’t Be the Last to Have Exploding Batteries,”CNN,September 13,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/13/technology/samsung-lithium-batteries/>;Katie Fehrenbacher,“Why Tesla’s New Battery Pack Is Important,”Fortune,August 24,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://fortune.com/2016/08/24/tesla-100kwh-battery-pack/>;Alex Knapp,“SpaceX Identifies Possible Cause of Rocket Explosion,Anticipates November Launch,”Forbes,September 23,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2016/09/23/spacex-identifies-possible-cause-of-rocket-explosion-anticipate-november-launch/#617c2aa27c62>.
[12] Elon Musk,“Master Plan,Part Deux,” July 20,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux>;Rebecca Hersher and Camila Domonoske,“Elon Musk Unveils His Plan for Colonizing Mars,”The Two-Way,September 27,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/27/495622695/this-afternoon-elon-musk-unveils-his-plan-for-colonizing-mars>.
[13] See,for example,Patrick J.Kiger,“U.S.Phase-Out of Incandescent Light Bulbs Continues in 2014 with 40-,60-Watt Varieties,”National Geographic Society,December 31,2013,accessed October 1,2016,<http://energyblog.national geographic.com/2013/12/31/u-s-phase-out-of-incandescent-light-bulbs-continues-in-2014-with-40-60-watt-varieties/>.
[14] “Former SpaceX Employee Explains What It’s Like to Work for Elon Musk,”Business Insider,June 24,2014,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.businessinsider.com/what-its-like-to-work-for-elon-musk-2014-6>.
[15] “Meet the Battery-Powered Home: Tesla Joins the Race to Help Homeowners Unplug from the Grid,”Economist,May 14,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21651106-tesla-joins-race-help-homeowners-unplug-grid-dawn-battery-powered-home>;Lambert,“SpaceX Transferred Novel Welding Techniques and Equipment to Tesla Motors.”
[16] “Photovoltaics.”U.S.Department of Energy,accessed October 1,2016,<http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/2014SunShotPortfolio_PV.pdf>;Eric Mack,“Why Elon Musk Spent $10 Million to Keep Artificial Intelligence Friendly,”Forbes,January 15,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2015/01/15/elon-musk-puts-down-10-million-to-fight-skynet/>
[17] Vance,Elon Musk,267–68.
[18] Kim Bhasin,“Elon Musk: ‘If We Published Patents,It Would Be Farcical,’”Business Insider,November 9,2012,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-patents-2012-11#ixzz3ekSUvPCn>;Vance,Elon Musk,22.
[19] “Utility Corporations: Summary Report of the Federal Trade Commission,”38,43.
[20] Craig R.Roach,Frank Mossburg,and Vincent Musco,“Partnership,Not Preemption:How State-Sponsored Planning Can Fit with FERC’s Capacity Markets,”Public Utilities Fortnightly,December 2013,accessed October 1,2016,<https://www.fort nightly.com/fortnightly/2013/12/partnership-not-preemption>.
[21] Craig R.Roach and Vincent Musco,“Federal Versus State Jurisdiction in the Electricity Business: Two Back-to-Back Decisions in 2016 Will Fundamentally Re-define the Jurisdictional Split,”Public Utilities Fortnightly,May 2016,accessed October 1,2016,<https://www.fortnightly.com/fortnightly/2016/05/federal-versus-state-jurisdiction-electricity-business>.
[22] Hirsch,“Elon Musk’s Growing Empire Is Fueled by $4.9 Billion in Government Subsidies”;Reem Nasr,“Elon Musk: Incentives Not Necessary,but Helpful,”CNBC,June 1,2015,accessed January 5,2017,<http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/01/elon-musk-we-are-not-getting-a-check-from-the-govt.html>.
[23] Craig R.Roach and Vincent Musco,“Electric Vehicles (Update),”Southwest Power Pool Annual Looking Forward Report: Strategic Issues Facing the Electricity Business,April 15,2016.
[24] Brian Fung,“Why Tesla Keeps Fighting for Direct Sales When It Could Just Work with Dealers,”Washington Post,October 22,2014,accessed October 1,2016,<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/10/22/why-tesla-keeps-fighting-for-direct-sales-when-it-could-just-work-with-dealers/>;Mike Ramsey,“Tesla Weighs New Challenge to State Direct-Sales Ban,”Wall Street Journal,March 28,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-weighs-new-challenge-to-state-direct-sales-bans-1459189069>;Mike Ramsey,“Tesla Presses Its Case on Fuel Standards,”Wall Street Journal,August 2,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-presses-its-case-on-fuel-standards-1438559469>;Henry Sanderson,“Tesla in Stand-Off over Lithium Supply,”Financial Times,December 15,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a924a64-99df-11e5-987b-d6cdef1b205c.html#axzz47bErNWW4>;Susan Pulliam,Mike Ramsey,and Brody Mullins,“Elon Musk Supports His Business Empire with Unusual Financial Moves,”Wall Street Journal,April 27,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-supports-his-business-empire-with-unusual-financial-moves-1461781962>.
[25] George Santayana,The Life of Reason (New York: Prometheus Books,1998),82;“A Likely Story ...And That’s Precisely the Problem,”Washington Post,April 17,2005,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/16/AR2005041600154.html>.
[26] “Greatest Engineering Achievements of the 20th Century,”National Academy of Engineering,2003,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.greatachievements.org/>.
[27] Kayla Webley,“Hurricane Sandy by the Numbers: A Superstorm’s Statistics,One Month Later,”Time,November 26,2012,accessed October 1,2016,<http://nation.time.com/2012/11/26/hurricane-sandy-one-month-later/>;“PSE&G Reaches $1.22 Billion Settlement in Energy Strong Proceeding,”Transmission & Distribution World Magazine,May 7,2014,accessed October 1,2016,<http://tdworld.com/distribution/pseg-reaches-122-billion-settlement-energy-strong-proceeding>;PG&E sought $3.9 billion and only received $1.22 billion;Rebecca Smith,“Assault on California Power Station Raises Alarm on Potential for Terrorism,”Wall Street Journal,February 5,2014,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1000142405270230485110457935914194 1621778>;“Smart Grid Cyber Security Market & Electrical Energy Storage Technology in the Intelligent Grid Analyzed in New Market Research Reports,”PR Newswire,September 17,2012,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.prnews wire.com/news-releases/smart-grid-cyber-security-market--electrical-energy-storage-technology-in-the-intelligent-grid-analyzed-in-new-market-research-reports-170005586.html>;Roach and Musco,Southwest Power Pool Annual Looking Forward Report (Washington,DC: Boston Pacific Company,Inc.,April 23,2013) 62.
[28] Morgan Kelly,“Two Years after Hurricane Sandy,Recognition of Princeton’s Microgrid Still Surges,”Princeton University,October 23,2014,accessed October 1,2016,<https://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S41/40/10C78/index.xml?section=featured>.
[29] “Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies,”Database of State Incentives for Renewables& Efficien,September 2014,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.dsireusa.org/resources/detailed-summary-maps/>.
[30] J ames Bennet,“Bill Gates: ‘We Need an Energy Miracle,’”Atlantic,November 16,2015,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/11/we-need-an-energy-miracle/407881/>;Amy Harder and Bradley Olson,“Exxon Touts Carbon Tax to Oil Industry,”Wall Street Journal,June 30,2016,accessed October 1,2016,<http://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-touts-carbon-tax-to-oil-industry-1467279004>;George P.Shultz and James A.Baker III,“A Conservative Answer to Climate Change,”Wall Street Journal,February 7,2017,<https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-conservative-answer-to-climate-change-1486512334>.
后记 想象未来
我们需要能源奇迹。
——比尔·盖茨（2014） [1]
本杰明·富兰克林接受了前所未有的挑战，即想象神秘的电是什么样子。今天，我们面临着同样的挑战，即想象电在未来世界中的用途和来源。要创造第二个富兰克林时代，或者一个新发现层出不穷、令人敬畏的时代，我们就必须拥有像富兰克林那样的无限想象力，必须摆脱旧的科学、技术、政治、政策、经济、商业战略和文化等的束缚。而唯一合理的限制条件是，我们的想象必须有助于实现预定的明确目标。
科学之路不止一条
幸运的是，世界不乏想象力。其中一个原因是，目光远大、勤奋钻研的科学家，比如法拉第和麦克斯韦，已经开辟了一条道路。他们告诉我们，只需推拉线圈中的磁体就可以产生电流。通过燃烧煤炭、焚烧垃圾、控制核反应等一系列方法产生的蒸汽，可以产生推拉磁体所需的机械动力。用压缩天然气驱动燃气涡轮机的方法人们已经驾轻就熟，并且得到了广泛的应用。推拉磁体也可以借助其他的力来完成，比如风、海浪或河流的力量。 [2]
有人认为，旧的技术也可以玩出新的花样。这里所说的旧技术指的是核能，新花样则是指建造小型反应堆。2011年，芝加哥大学通过一项建设性研究，谨慎地阐明了建造小型模块化反应堆的好处。该研究认为，核能最大的好处是没有碳排放，而且可以大规模建造。但研究者坦承，小型模块化反应堆面临着诸如“安全、防止扩散、废料管理和经济竞争力”等方面的一系列难题。 [3]
有的技术易于理解，也可以应用，但解释起来有点儿难度，比如太阳能光伏发电和燃料电池等技术。太阳能光伏发电技术能把光转换成原子层级的电能，这项技术会让我们想起爱因斯坦，因为他就是凭借光电效应方面的研究获得诺贝尔物理学奖的。太空计划利用这项技术为航天器提供动力，这是该技术的首次正式应用。太阳能光伏发电也需要用到计算机中的半导体材料，事实上，太阳能光伏发电技术与计算机科学之间的联系，正是人们乐观地认为它可以大幅提升效能、降低成本的原因之一。 [4]
燃料电池在将氢和氧结合成水的同时产生电能，即电“流”。由于这是一种化学反应，它几乎不会产生燃烧化石燃料时产生的空气污染物排放，所以这是燃料电池最具吸引力的特点之一。不过，燃料电池对排放（包括温室气体排放）的总体影响，主要取决于氢的来源。燃料电池的另一个吸引人的特点在于，它们可以堆叠，以满足任何规模的电力需求。相较而言，燃料电池的劣势是成本比较高。 [5]
在第二次电力系统之争中，光电和燃料电池可能都是重要的棋子。其中一个原因是，从规模的角度看，两者都可以用作个人能源。另一个原因是，设备在制造的过程中有可能大幅提升效能、降低成本。规模经济对制造业有效，但对发电厂无效。
新科学是新技术的核心，以新材料石墨烯为例。2010年的诺贝尔物理学奖被授予安德烈·盖姆（Andre Geim）和康斯坦丁·诺沃肖洛夫（Konstantin Novoselov），因为他们完成了“石墨烯的制备、分离、鉴定与表征”。石墨烯是只有一个原子厚度的碳。瑞典皇家科学院评价碳是“元素周期表中最迷人的元素”，石墨是碳的常见形式，铅笔芯中就含有石墨。瑞典皇家科学院说，任何用过铅笔的人，都“可能在不知情的情况下制造出类似石墨烯的材料”。这两位诺奖得主也在论文中宣称，石墨烯“表现出大量新的物理特性和潜在应用”。对于这本书而言，电力技术的潜在应用才是最重要的。曼彻斯特大学请人们“想象在几秒钟内给智能手机充满电，或者在几分钟内给一辆电动汽车充满电，将会是一种什么感觉。石墨烯就有这样的能力”。此外，“石墨烯薄膜可以帮我们从大气中过滤出氢气，这可能为空气发电铺平道路”。 [6]
接下来，我们以让–皮埃尔·索维奇（Jean-Pierre Sauvage）、弗雷泽·斯托达特（Fraser Stoddart）爵士和伯纳德·费林加（Bernard Feringa）的研究为例。因为“在分子机器的设计和合成”方面做出的贡献，他们共同获得了2016年的诺贝尔化学奖。在颁奖典礼上，瑞典皇家科学院把他们取得的科学突破比作支持电动机工作的科学原理：“从技术开发的角度看，分子马达与19世纪30年代的电动机处于同一个发展阶段。当科学家摆弄各种各样的旋转曲柄和轮子时，他们并不知道这些装置会构成洗衣机、电风扇和食物处理机。分子机器很可能被用于开发诸如新型材料、传感器和储能系统之类的东西。”
我举石墨烯和分子机器这两个例子，是为了告诉大家新科学可能会产生怎样的影响。它们绝不是科学发展的唯一道路，但它们可以告诉我们，如果我们开动脑筋发挥想象力，就会得到什么。 [7]
向所有技术敞开大门
这本书讲述的这段历史的核心内容是电力的生产与输送技术。然而，认为“电力行业发展的驱动力全部来自于技术”的观点显然是错误的。技术的选择本身就会受到许多因素的影响，包括法律、政策和法规。我们必须透过广角镜头，认真研究过去的那些决策，才能充分看清它们的本质。爱迪生与特斯拉之间的电流之争可能是最典型的例子，它表明优势更大的技术更有希望取胜，而其竞争对手则会失败。交流电系统最有助于实现当时的主要目标，因此它胜利了，并得到了建立地域性垄断组织等政策的鼓励和支持。
