30 Felicite C. Bell and Michael L. Miller, Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100, Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Actuarial Study no. 120 (August 2005). 此处的数字引用自表十一,代表世代平均余命。世代平均余命反映的是死亡率实际以及预期下滑的幅度。相反地,期间平均余命反应了在特定年份每个年龄族群的死亡率,并未计算实际或预期的改善程度。例如,假设某个人出生于二○○○年,如果是男性,他的期间平均余命为七十四岁,女性为七十九岁。至于世代平均余命,男性为八十岁,女性为八十四岁。如果你要推估自己会活多久,后者是比较精确的算法。
31 关于这段洞见以及相关数字,要非常谢谢理财专员鲍伯.佛瑞(Bob Frey)与精算师乔伊.汤姆林森(Joe Tomlinson)。
32 社会安全局公布的「遗属与残障保险计划信托报告」(2017 OASDI Trustees Report),表V.A3。
33 联合国经济暨社会事务部人口司(Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division),资料取自于人口司网站。
34 根据员工福利研究所(Employee Benefit Research Institute)公布的《二○一八年退休信心调查》(2018 Retirement Confidence Survey)多数美国工作者计划在六十岁时退休,但实际上他们多半会提早在六十二岁退休。
35 若想要更加了解关于人口老化的难题,可参考:Robert D. Arnott and Anne Casscells, ‘Demographics and Capital Market Returns’, Financial Analysts Journal (March/April 2003).
36 David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald, ‘Is Well-Being U-Shaped Over the Life Cycle Social Science & Medicine 66 (2008).
37 若想要阅读关于年龄与动机的研究摘要,可参考:Gottfried Catania and Raymond Randall, ‘The Relation-ship Between Age and Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation in Workers in a Maltese Culture Context’, International Journal of Arts and Sciences, vol. 6, no. 2 (2013)。
38 Lauren L. Schmitz, ‘Do Working Conditions at Older Ages Shape the Health Gradient ’ Working paper (September 2015).
39 American Institute for Economic Research, New Careers for Older Workers, 2015
40 Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience, Harper & Row (1990).
41 Jonathan Clements, ‘Three Questions That Can Change Your Finances…and Your Life’, Wall Street Journal (27 February 2015).
42 Anna Prior, ‘Route to an $8 Million Portfolio Started With Frugal Living’, Wall Street Journal (19 March 2015).
43 这些本益比数值的计算是依据一九一三年十二月三十一日以及二○一七年十二月三十一日的公告盈余。不过,投资人所想的本益比可能会稍有不同,因为全年盈余仍未公告。
44 你可以在以下网站找到摩根指数的统计数据:www.msci.com/end-of-the-day-data-search。如果要查询个别指数的表现,只要输入指数名称即可。
45 John C. Bogle and Michael W. Nolan Jr., ‘Occam’s Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns’, Journal of Portfolio Management (Fall 2015).
46 William J. Bernstein and Robert D. Arnott, ‘Earnings Growth: The Two Percent Dilution’, Financial Analysts Journal (September/October 2003). 自从研究报告发表之后几年的时间,股票回购数量大约和股票发行数量相等,但无法确定这是短期或长期现象。
47 John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, interest and Money, Macmillan Press (1936).
48 虽然在六十二岁领取社会安全退休福利的人相当多,但有迹象显示,开始有人采取较聪明的财务行为,详细内容请参考:Alicia H. Munnell and Anqi Chen, Trends in Social Security Claiming, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (May 2015).