跳出经验外，思在新境中
95 乔尔丹诺·布鲁诺：A. A. Martinez, “Giordano Bruno and the Heresy of Many Worlds,” Annals of Science 73, no. 4 (2016): 345—74.
95 约翰尼斯·开普勒最初也认可并继承了：关于开普勒继承的世界观和他的变革性类比，提供了极好的背景资料的来源有：D. Gentner et al., “Analogical Reasoning and Conceptual Change: A Case Study of Johannes Kepler,” Journal of the Learning Sciences 6, no. 1 (1997): 3—40; D. Gentner, “Analogy in Scientific Discovery: The Case of Johannes Kepler,” in Model-Based Reasoning: Science, Technology, Values, ed. L. Magnani and N. J. Nersessian (New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 2002), 21—39; D. Gentner et al., “Analogy and Creativity in the Works of Johannes Kepler,” in Creative Thought: An Investigation of Conceptual Structures and Processes, ed. T. B. Ward et al. (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1997).
96 也许众多的天体就像一块块磁铁：D. Gentner and A. B. Markman, “Structure Mapping in Analogy and Similarity,” American Psychologist 52, no. 1 (1997): 45—56. 开普勒也阅读了有关磁力现象的新作品：A. Caswell, “Lectures on Astronomy,” Smithsonian Lectures on Astronomy, 1858 (British Museum collection).
97 “月球可以管得了地球上的水”：J. Gleick, Isaac Newton (New York: Vintage, 2007).
98 在当时还没有“引力”这一概念；“物理学家们”：A. Koestler, The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man’s Changing Vision of the Universe (New York: Penguin Classics, 2017).
98 “我特别热爱类比这种方法”：B. Vickers, “Analogy Versus Identity,” in: Occult and Scientific Mentalities in the Renaissance, ed. B. Vickers (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984).
99 “远距离运动”：Gentner et al., “Analogy and Creativity in the Works of Johannes Kepler.”; E. McMullin, “The Origins of the Field Concept in Physics,” Physics in Perspective 4, no. 1 (2002): 13—39.
100 假设你是一名医生：M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak, “Analogical Problem Solving,” Cognitive Psychology 12 (1980): 306—55.
101-102 曾经，一位将军；一个小镇上……消防队队长；“参与的受试者可能会以为”；“定义不明”的问题：M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak, “Schema Induction and Analogical Transfer,” Cognitive Psychology 15 (1983): 1—38.
103 卡尼曼曾经亲历过这种“内部视角”的危险性：卡尼曼的故事体现在了他的书《思考，快与慢》(New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011)中。有了内部视角和外部观角的背景之后，也体现在另一本著作《胆怯的选择和大胆的预测》（Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts）中，Management Science 39, no. 1 (1993): 17—31。
104 大型私募股权公司的投资人参与了实验：D. Lovallo, C. Clarke, and C. Camerer, “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View,” Strategic Management Journal 33, no. 5 (2012): 496—512.
105 那匹马的身体素质：M. J. Mauboussin, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2009).
105 一个人考量的内部细节越多：L. Van Boven and N. Epley, “The Unpacking Effect in Evaluative Judgments: When the Whole Is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 39 (2003): 263—69.
105 “死于自然原因”：A. Tversky and D. J. Koehler, “Support Theory,” Psychological Review 101, no. 4 (1994): 547—67.
105 全世界大约90%的大型基础设施建设工程：B. Flyvbjerg et al., “What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?” Transport Reviews 24, no. 1 (2004): 3—18.
105 可能被大幅低估了：B. Flyvbjerg, “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning,” European Planning Studies 16, no. 1 (2008): 3—21. The £1 billion price tag: S. Brocklehurst, “Going off the Rails,” BBC Scotland, May 30, 2014, online ed.
106 研究人员又把目光投向了电影业：Lovallo, Clarke, and Camerer, “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View.”
106 网飞公司……也得到了类似的结论：T. Vanderbilt, “The Science Behind the Netflix Algorithms That Decide What You’ll Watch Next,” Wired.com, August 7, 2013; and C. Burger, “Personalized Recommendations at Netflix,” Tastehit. com, February 23, 2016.
107 洛瓦洛和杜宾给部分学生：F. Dubin and D. Lovallo, “The Use and Misuse of Analogies in Business,” Working Paper (Sydney: University of Sydney, 2008).
108 2001年，波士顿咨询公司：关于波士顿咨询公司“展品”的推动力，简要讨论如下：D. Gray, “A Gallery of Metaphors,” Harvard Business Review, September 2003.
109 根特纳和她的同事们……这项“模糊分类任务”：B. M. Rottman et al., “Causal Systems Categories: Differences in Novice and Expert Categorization of Causal Phenomena,” Cognitive Science 36 (2012): 919—32.
110 在有史以来被引用最多的一项：M. T. H. Chi et al., “Categorization and Representation of Physics Problems by Experts and Novices,” Cognitive Science 5, no. 2 (1981): 121—52.
110 “对我来说”：Koestler, The Sleepwalkers.
111 丹麦花费了整个国家财政预算的1%：N. Morvillo, Science and Religion: Understanding the Issues (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010).
111 “如果我一定要忽略这8弧分”：Koestler, The Sleepwalkers.
112 当邓巴开始这项工作的时候：关于邓巴工作的一个很有意义的背景资料是：K. Dunbar, “What Scientific Thinking Reveals About the Nature of Cognition,” in Designing for Science, ed. K. Crowley et al. (Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2001).
114 “当实验室的所有成员”：K. Dunbar, “How Scientists Really Reason,” in The Nature of Insight, ed. R. J. Sternberg and J. E. Davidson (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), 365—95.
