被专家愚弄
219 一场赌局开始了：耶鲁大学历史学教授保罗·萨宾的著作《赌注》The Bet (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013)提供了引人入胜的背景和分析。C·R·桑斯坦（C.R.Sunstein)在《纽约书评》上发表的《两只刺猬之战》 “The Battle of Two Hedgehogs,” New York Review of Books, December 5, 2013是一篇简短的分析文章。
219 “人口增长曲线”：P. Ehrlich, Eco-Catastrophe! (San Francisco: City Lights Books, 1969).
220 “绿色革命”：G. S. Morson and M. Schapiro, Cents and Sensibility (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017 ［Kindle ebook］).
220 “提升了每个大陆的人均粮食供应量”：这部分和该段落其他统计数据(营养不良公民的比例；饥荒死亡率；出生率；人口增长轨迹)来自在线出版物“我们世界的数据”，该出版物由牛津大学经济学家马克斯·罗瑟(Max Roser)创立。例如，每人每天的卡路里供应量可以在以下网址找到：https://slides.our worldindata.org/hunger-and-food-provision/#/kcalcapitaday-by-world-regions-mg-png.
221 联合国预测：United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables,” Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248.
221 “现在，人口炸弹已经被引爆”：P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990).
221 后来，经济学家研究：K. Kiel et al., “Luck or Skill? An Examination of the Ehrlich-Simon Bet,” Ecological Economics 69, no. 7 (2010): 1365—67.
223 泰洛克决定研究专家的预测：泰洛克在自己的著作中铺陈了详细而妙趣的细节——《专家的政治判断：它有多好？我们怎么知道呢？》Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005).
223 “一种奇特的反向关系”：Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment.
229 超级预测者们的在线互动：P. E. Tetlock et al., “Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments,” Science 355 (2017): 481—83.
230 美元兑欧元的汇率预测：G. Gigerenzer, Risk Savvy (New York: Penguin, 2014).
230—231 “积极的开放心态”；“我的”看法：J. Baron et al., “Reflective Thought and Actively Open-Minded Thinking,” in Individual Differences in Judgment and Decision Making, ed. M. E. Toplak and J. A. Weller (New York: Routledge, 2017 ［Kindle ebook］).
231 即使报酬非常诱人：J. A. Frimer et al., “Liberals and Conservatives Are Similarly Motivated to Avoid Exposure to One Another’s Opinions,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 72 (2017): 1—12.
231 关于英国脱欧投票准备期的研究：Online Privacy Foundation, “Irrational Thinking and the EU Referendum Result” (2016).
231 修护霜……控枪：D. Kahan et al., “Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government,” Behavioural Public Policy 1, no. 1 (2017): 54—86.
231 不是单纯的求知欲，而是对科学的好奇心：D. M. Kahan et al., “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing,” Advances in Political Psychology 38, no. 51 (2017): 179—99.
232 “只有深度是不够的”：Baron et al., “Reflective Thought and Actively Open-Minded Thinking.”
232 前四个人类进化论模型：H. E. Gruber, Darwin on Man: A Psychological Study of Scientific Creativity, 127.
232 “千万不能接受莱尔提出的这些观点”：The Autobiography of Charles Darwin.
233 “这是科学史上最有意义的交流之一”：J. Browne, Charles Darwin: A Biography, vol. 1, Voyaging (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995), 186.
233 爱因斯坦就属于刺猬型：有关爱因斯坦偏刺猬型的参考文献之一，请参见：Morson and Schapiro, Cents and Sensibility.
233 “人们似乎达成了共识”：G. Mackie, “Einstein’s Folly,” The Conversation, November 29, 2015.
233 尼尔斯·玻尔……他说：C. P. Snow, The Physicists, (London: Little, Brown and Co., 1981). 爱因斯坦也表达了对应观点，可参见：H. Dukas and B. Hoffmann eds., Albert Einstein, The Human Side: Glimpses from His Archives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1979), 68.
234 在连续四年的预测竞赛中：W. Chang et al., “Developing Expert Political Judgment: The Impact of Training and Practice on Judgmental Accuracy in Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments,” Judgment and Decision Making 11, no. 5 (2016): 509—26.
