32．Simon, 1992 and 1996. Cyert and March 1992. Prietula et al. 1998, Kennedy and Eberhart 2001, and Monge and Contractor 2003.
33．Hutchins 1996.
34．Jay 2000, p. 38.
35．Ibid., pp. 121-122.
36．Micklethwait and Wooldridge 2003.
13
1．我只是说基因是生物学中选择的单位，这仍然是一个活跃的研究领域，参见Dawkins 1976 and 1982。
2．Nelson 1995, Hodgson 2002, and Knudsen 2002.
3．Dawkins 1976 and 1982.
4．最佳实践管理研究和商学院案例证明，人类有回顾性地识别模块的能力。有关最佳实践研究的示例，请参阅公司执行委员会的网站和哈佛大学商学院的案例库。
5．Nelson and Winter 1982, p. 14. Cohen and Sproull 1996. Dawkins 1976, p. 192. Dawkins 1982, Dennett 1995, Lynch 1996, Brodie 1996, Blackmore 1999, Aunger 2000, and Sherman 2002. Boyd and Richerson 1985, Dunbar, Knight, and Power 1999, Balkin 1998, Klein and Edgar 2002, Plotkin 2002, Boyd and Richerson 2005.
6．亚马逊网站上关于如何写商业计划的书竟然有97 041本。有研究表明，这些作者都遵循着相同的基本公式。我也可以证明这个公式的适用性，因为我曾经在一家风险投资公司工作过，在几年的时间里阅读过几百份商业计划书。
7．Collins and Porras 1994, pp. 140-168.
8．Niehans 1990, p. 447.
9．Hayek 1948, 1988.
10．Wright 2000.
11．Cameron and Neal 2003. McMillan 2002. Bevir and Trentmann 2004.
12．Baumol 2002.
13．Chandler 1977.
14．My use of the term resources in this context is consistent with its meaning in the management literature. Wernerfelt 1984 and 1995 and Robert Grant, pp. 179-199, in Segal-Horn 1998 for a review and references.
15．Nelson & Winter 1982, pp. 119-121, and Nelson 1995, p. 69.
16．Nelson 1995.
17．Aghion and Howitt1998. Baumol 2002.
18．Gintis 2003.
19．Axtell 2002 and 2003.
20．Baumol 2002.
21．Kahneman, Diener, and Schwarz 1999 and Schwartz 2004.
22．V Havel, Summer Meditations New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1992, p. 62. McMillan p. 7.
23．Campbell 1960. Plotkin 1993, 2000. Hull 1988.
24．Cameron and Neal 2003, pp. 154-155.
25．Johnson 1997.
26．Ibid., pp. 94-95.
27．Ibid., p. 94.
14
1．传记细节来自纽约大学创办的“经济思想史”网站。
2．Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1966.
3．Georgescu-Roegen 1971.
4．Teilhard de Chardin 1969. Wright 2000.
5．Hayek 1960 and 1988, and Boulding 1978.
6．Schneider and Sagan 2005.
7．Kauffman 1995a, pp. 44-45.
8．Georgescu-Roegen 1971, p. 18.
9．Roegen 1971, Daly 1999, and Mirowski 1989.
10．Daly 1999, pp. 78-79.
11．Ecological Economics 22, no. 3 September 1997: 271-273.
12．Georgescu-Roegen 1971, p. 21.
13．Georgescu-Roegen,1971, p.17. Mirowski, 1989, p. 367.
14．Mirowski 1989, p. 382.
15．Mirowski 1989, p. 383.
16．对于现代人来说，乔治斯库-罗根的一些论点看起来很古怪，甚至是错误的。他对熵的看法并没有吸收20世纪80年代和90年代信息理论研究的成果，他的进化观是在计算机能够对进化理论进行数学探索等的基础上发展起来的。尽管如此，他的总体思路仍然很好。
17．A. S. Eddington, The Nature of the Physical World New York: MacMillan, 1930, p. 74.Haynie 2001, p. xii.
18．Georgescu-Roegen 1971, pp. 6, 11, 196-198, 278.
19．Georgescu-Roegen 1971, p. 277.
20．Georgescu-Roegen 1971, p. 18.
21．Keizer 1987.
22．唯一能告诉我们时间的方向的方法是有一个参考点指向一组固定的恒星。但只有当我们事先知道“正确”的轨道是什么时，这些信息才会有用。我们可以说这个过程是可逆的，因为一个对太阳系一无所知的太空物理学家无法区分前向轨道和后向轨道，而任何熟悉热力学第二定律的外星人都能从一段打碎牛奶瓶的影片中分辨出时间的方向。
23．Prigogine 1996 and Deutsch 1997.
24．Christian von Baeyer 1998, p. 133.
25．Christian von Baeyer 1998.
26．在传统经济学中，可逆性问题没有得到明确的论述。然而，从可逆性的角度看传统理论，我们会发现一些有趣的矛盾。例如，交易通常是不可逆的，例如瓦尔拉斯拍卖。然而，没有什么固有的东西可以阻止一个人向后运行新古典主义的生产函数。因此，新古典主义理论之所以有“时间之箭”（就其本身而言），是因为公共事业的安排，或者是最初的捐赠，或者是外生的冲击，使系统失去了平衡，使得公共事业通过不可逆的交易及时拉动经济向前发展。有趣的是，这种微观经济不可逆性并不会转化为宏观经济不可逆性。大多数宏观模型要么是时间可逆的，例如索洛的增长模型；要么是时间之箭外生的，例如钻石叠代模型。这进一步证明了传统微观和宏观理论世界之间缺乏一致性和整合性。
27．Christian von Baeyer 1998, pp. 152-155.
28．Smith and Foley 2002.
29．Christian von Baeyer 1998, pp. 146-152.
30．有人可能会提出这样的问题：破坏公物的人是为了享乐才破坏东西的。我认为，尽管这些人可能满足了一些心理需求，但他们并没有创造经济价值。而纳税人需要付钱给警察来阻止这些人，从社会的角度来看，破坏公物是一种破坏价值的行为。
31．即使我们将拆除这一中间步骤隔离开来，并将其本身视为一个转变，我们也会看到，虽然实体建筑的熵在增加，但随着拆除公司不断扩大，雇用人员、建立组织、购买设备、创造关于拆除的知识等，它的熵是在减少的。整个经济系统中局部的熵减小，随着建筑物的瓦砾回到环境中，宇宙的熵增大了。
32．感谢2002年密歇根大学-圣塔菲研究所复杂性研讨会的参与者提出了这个例子。
33．Christian and Baeyer 1998, pp. 157-158.
34．Bowles 2004, pp. 93-126. Buss, 1999.
35．Wright 1994, Pinker 1997 and 2002, Ridley 1997 and Buss 1999.
36．Wright 1994.
37．Consumer Expenditures in 2000, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2002.
38．Abul-Magd 2002.
39．Pinker 1997, pp. 374-378.
40．Pinker 1997, pp. 378-385.
41．Wright 1994.
42．Fox 2002.
43．www.telenor.no/fou/program/nomadiske/artikler.shtml. Accessed on August 15, 2004.
44．Pinker 1997, p. 522.
45．Pinker 1997, pp. 521-538.
46．Laland, Odling-Smee, and Feldman 2000 and Bowles and Gintis 2002.
47．Klein and Edgar 2002, pp. 194-195. Pinker 1997, pp. 528-538.
48．Georgescu-Roegen 1971, pp. 283-291.
49．Dawkins 1976, 1998, Dennett 1995, and Wright 2000.
50．Kahneman et al. 1999 and Layard 2005.
51．Wright 2000. Horan, Bulte, and Shogren 2005.
52．Cohen and Sproull, eds. 1996, Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998, pp. 175-231, and Eisenhardt and Santos in Pettigrew, Thomas, and Whittington, eds. 2002, pp. 139-164.
53．Plotkin 1993.
54．Gould 2002.
55．Hausman, ed. 1994, pp. 10-15 and Cartwright 1999, pp. 49-74.
15
1．Mas-Colell, Whinston, and Green 1995, pp. 167-215.
2．“And Now, the War Forecast,” The Economist Technology Quarterly, September 17, 2005,pp. 21-22.
3．Flake 1998, Weinberger 1996.
4．Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998 and Pettigrew, Thomas, and Whittington eds. 2002.
5．Chandler 1962, p. 13.
6．Mintzberg, Ahlstrand and Lampel 1998. Rumelt, Schendel and Teece, eds. 1994 and Pettigrew, Thomas, and Whittington eds. 2002.
7．Pettigrew, Thomas, and Whittington eds. 2002, pp. 55-71.
8．Pettigrew, Thomas, and Whittington, eds. 2002, pp. 55-71.
9．Ghemawat 1991.
10．www.ormiston.com/annieoakley accessed August 15, 2004.
11．Gell-Mann 1994, pp. 133-134.
12．www.yogi-berra.com.
13．Van der Hijden 1996 and Schwartz 1991. Courtney 2001.
14．Mas-Colell et al. 1995.
15．Holland et al., 1989.
16．Lee et al. 1998, Axtell 2001, and Powell 2003. Camerer et al. 2004, pp. 9-12.
17．Foster and Kaplan 2001, ch. 3.
18．Micklethwait and Wooldridge 2003.
19．Wiggins and Ruefli 2005. Wiggins and Ruefli 2002.
20．Foster and Kaplan 2001.
21．在合并或兼并中，即便被并购公司的所有权改变了，其资产也是存在的。但我认为这属于“放弃清单”，因为在第三部分的概述框架中，资产正处于另一个业务计划的控制之下。并购是成功的商业计划加强对资源控制的一种机制。
22．Wiggins and Ruefli 2002.
23．Wiggins and Ruefli 2002 and 2005.
24．绩效是通过资产回报率和托宾的q来衡量的，所述结果是资产回报率。
25．Powell 2002.
26．参见鲁弗利2005年9月25—26日与作者的往来邮件。
27． “A new evolutionary law,” Evolutionary Theory, vol. 1, pp. 1-30. Kauffman 1995b.
28．Henderson and Mitchell, 1997, Pettigrew, Thomas, and Whittington, eds. 2002, and Hoopes, Madsen, and Walker, 2003. Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.
29．参见鲁弗利2005年9月25—26日与作者的往来邮件。
30．Hannan and Freeman 1977, 1984, 1989, and Hannan and Carroll 1992.
31．Foster 1986, p. 132-135 and Tushman and O’Reilly 1997, pp. 17-25.
32．Hannan and Freeman 1989 and Baum and Singh 1994.
33．Foster and Kaplan 2001, p. 20.
34．Robert Boyd and Peter Richerson 1985, Nelson and Winter 1982, Donald Campbell 1960,Burgelman 1983, Barnett and Burgelman 1996, and Burgelman’s 2002, Peters and Waterman 1982, p. 114 and Hamel 2000, pp. 264-269, and pp. 297-306.
35．Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck 1994, Beinhocker 1999, Bryan 2002.
36．Beinhocker 1999.
37．Beinhocker and Kaplan 2002.
38．Foster and Kaplan 2001, Chapter 11.
39．Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998, pp. 176-231.
40．Dixit and Pindyck 1994, Copeland and Keenan 1998, and Leslie and Michaels 2000.
41．Bryan 2002.
42．Peters and Waterman 1982, March 1991, Collins and Porras 1994, Tushman and O’Reilly 1997, and Foster and Kaplan 2001.
43．Bryan 2002.
44．Wiggins and Ruefli 2002, p. 95.
45．Collins and Porras 1994, Tushman and O’Reilly 1997, and Lencioni 2002.
46．Collins and Porras 1994, p. 94.
47．Collins and Porras 1994, p. 95.
48．Welch 2001.
49．Camazine et al. 2001, pp. 188-215.
50．J. Doneheyand G. Overholser of CapitalOne at the Ernst & Young Embracing Complexity Conference, Boston, M.A., August 2-4, 1998 Bonabeau and Meyer 2001.
51．Kaplan et al. 1996.
52．Campbell et al. 2003.
53．Hamel 2000.
54．Berzins et al. 1998, p. 7.
16
1．www.westinghousenuclear.com and www.ge.com, and Collins and Porras 1994, Slater 1999,and Welch 2001.
2．Welch 2001 and Collins and Porras 1994.
3．Collins and Porras 1994.
4．Slater 1999 and Welch 2001.
5．Krames 2002 and Slater 1999.
6．Arrow 1974, Simon 1997, Williamson and Winter 1991, Jensen 1998, Hatch 1997, Penrose 1959, Williamson 1990, Cyert and March 1963, Astely et al. 1983, Koza and Thoenig 1995,and Giddens 2001. Hatch 1997.
7．Nelson and Winter 1982, Aldrich 1999, Dosi, Nelson, and Winter 2000, Haken 2000, Lee et al. 1998, Lesourne and Orléan 1998, Morecroft and Sterman 1994, Prietula et al. 1998,Axelrod 1984 and 1997a, Axelrod and Cohen 1999, Durlauf and Young 2001, Young 1998,and Monge and Contractor 2003.
8．Aldrich 1999.
9．Cyert and March 1992, Williamson, ed. 1995.
10．Aldrich 1999, p. 4.
11．Roberts 2004, pp. 74-117.
12．Williamson and Winter 1993.
13．Ibid, and Williamson 1995.
14．Holmstr·m and Roberts 1998.
15．Camazine et al. 2001, pp. 23-26.
16．Cohen and Sproull, 1996, pp. 516-540, Hutchins 1996.
17．Wright 2000.
18．Axelrod and Cohen 1999, pp. 43-50.
19．Peters and Waterman 1982.
20．Collins and Porras 1994, Foster and Kaplan 2001, and Tushman and O’Reilly 1997.
21．March 1991.
22．“Help At Last,” The Economist, November 29, 2003, p. 11.
23．Cohen and Sproull 1996 and Camerer, Loewenstein, and Rabin 2004.
24． Bob Woodward’s Bush at War New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002 and Richard Clarke’s Against All Enemies New York: Free Press, 2004.
25．Lovallo and Kahneman 2003.
26．Ibid., p. 5.
27．Welch 2001, p. 106.
28．Holland et al. 1986 and Holland 1995.
29．Sternberg 1999, pp. 122-123, Holland et al. 1986, pp. 250-254.
30．Margaret Thatcher, “Special Report: Politics Past,” politics.guardian.co.uk.
31．Harrington 1998.
32．Krames 2002, p. 105.
33．Page 1996.
34．Penrose 1959.
35．Wernerfelt 1984 and 1995, Barney 1991, Henderson and Mitchell 1997, Segal-Horn 1998,Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998, and Dosi, Nelson, and Winter 2000.
36．Penrose 1959.
37．Prahalad and Hamel 1990, Baghai, Coley and White 1999.
38．Prietula, Carley and Gasser 1998, pp. 3-22.
39．Boyd and Richerson 1985, p. 33.
40．Balkin 1998, Aunger 2000, and Sherman 2002. Dunbar et al. 1999 and Klein and Edgar 2002.
41．Nelson and Winter, 1982.
42．Katz 2000, Wright 1994, Ridley 1996, and Pinker 2002.
43．Henrich et al. 2004.
44．Anna Karenina, part I, ch. 1. Deal and Kennedy 1982, Peters and Waterman 1982, Kotter and Heskett 1992, Schein 1992, Howard and Haas 1993, Collins and Porras 1994, Cohen and Sproull 1996, de Gues 1997, Tushman and O’Reilly 1997, Aldrich 1999, Cohen and Prusak 2001, Collins 2001, Welch 2001, Bower 2003, and Roberts 2004.
45．Collins and Porras 1994, p. 147.
46．Edersheim 2004. www.mckinsey.com.
47．Krames 2002.
48．Gardner 2004.
49．Krames 2002.
50．Collins and Porras 1994, Collins 2001, Slater 1999, Foster and Kaplan 2001, Tushman and O’Reilly 1997, and Roberts 2004.
51．Penrose 1959.
52．Ibid., p. 18.
53．Axtell 2001.
54．Penrose 1959, pp. xvi-xviii, 12-13,18-19, 213-214.
55．Axtell 2001, Stanley et al. 1996, and Amaral et al. 1997 and 1998.
56．Minsky 1985.
17
1．Lewis 1999 and Lowenstein 2000.
2．Lewis 1999.
3．Peter Bernstein 1992.
4．Mandelbrot, 1997, p. 24.
5．Malkiel 1973.
6．Brealey and Myers 1988, Cochrane 2005, and Ross 2005, Lengwiler 2004
7．Copeland et al. 1994.
8．Campbell et al. 1997 p. 20.
9．Bernstein 1992, p. 17.
10．Fischer Black, “Noise,” in Thaler 1993, pp. 3-22.
11．Malkiel 1973, pp. 161-172.
12．Thaler 1993, Shleifer 2000, Montier 2002, and Camerer, Loewenstein, and Rabin 2004, Ross 2005.
13．Gleick 1987, pp. 83-90.
14．Mandelbrot 1997, pp. 371-411.
15．更具体地说，曼德尔布罗特提出数据遵循列维稳定分布（Levy Stable Distribution），尾部具有无标度的特点。
16．Mandelbrot and Hudson 2004.
17．Mandelbrot and Hudson (2004), p. 166.
18．Mandelbrot 1997, pp. 444-457.
19．Mandelbrot 1997, pp. 419-443.
20．Lo and MacKinlay 1999, p. 4.
21．Fama 1970, Lo and MacKinlay 1999, p. 13.
22．Lo and MacKinlay 1999, p. 14
23．Lo and MacKinlay 1999, pp. 17-45, Mandelbrot, 1997, and Mandelbrot and Hudson, 2004 Engle 1982.
24．LeBaron 1989 and 1994, Campbell et al. 1997, and Lo and MacKinlay 1999.
25．Farmer 1999, Farmer and Lo 1999, Mantegna and Stanley 2000, Sornette 2003, and Johnson, Jeffries, and Hui 2003.
26．Mantegna and Stanley 1996, Plerou et al. 1999, and Cont and Bouchaud 2000, and Sornette 2003.
27．Gleick 1987 and Bass 1999.
28．Farmer 2001.
29．Arthur 1995, Arthur et al. 1997, p. 38.
30．Arthur et al., “Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market,”in Arthur, Durlauf, and Lane 1997, pp. 15-43.
31．Kahneman et al. 1982, Thaler 1993, Kagel et al. 1995, and Shleifer 2000.
32．LeBaron et al. 1999.
33．Farmer 1998, p. 5.
34．Farmer 1998 and 2002.
35．Farmer 2001, p. 64.
36．O’Hara 1995.
37．Farmer 1998, 2001, and 2002.
38．Neftci 1991, Brock et al. 1992, and LeBaron 1998.
39．Campbell et al. 1997, pp. 253-287.
40．Bernard, “Stock Price Reactions to Earnings Announcements,” in Thaler 1993, pp. 303-340.
41．“A Survey of Risk”，Economist, January 24, 2004, pp.10-11.
42．Farmer 1998, p. 4.
43．Surowiecki 2004.
44．Surowiecki 2003.
45．General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
46．Farmer 1998, pp. 44-45, and Farmer 2002, p. 935.
47．Lo 2004.
48．Copeland, Koller, and Murrin 2000.
49．Brealey and Myers 1988. Cochrane 2005.
50．Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay 1997, pp. 188-217, and Montier 2002, pp. 81-86.
51．1977年，理查德·罗尔发现了这个问题。市场投资组合通常代表的是价值加权的CRSP指数。
52．Karceski 2002.
53．Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay 1997, pp. 211-212, and Monder 2002, pp. 83-84. Copeland, Roller, and Murrin 2000, pp. 224-226.
54．该理论认为比较仪应该是零beta组合，但必须再次使用代理，通常是政府债务作为代理，并且必须在选择代理时选择，如时间框架、特定工具和发行政府。
55．Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay 1997, pp. 219-251, Lo and MacKinlay 1999, pp. 189-212,and Montier 2002, pp. 87-92.
56．Andrew Hill, reported by Financial Times, May 14, 2003.
57．McNulty et al., 2002, and Shefrin, 2005.
58．Copeland, Koller, and Murrin 2000, p. 7.
59．De Swaan and Harper 2003.
60．Kaplan and Norton 1996 and 2000.
61．Dobbs and Koller 2005.
62．Jensen 1998 and 2001, and Mas-Colell, Whinston, and Green 1995, pp. 152-154.
63．Copeland, Koller, and Murrin 2000, pp. 3-15.
64．Elkington 1999, Kelly 2003, Zadek 2004, and Bakan 2004.
65．Handy 2002.
66．Foster and Kaplan, 2001, p. 8.
