Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 2003. “Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?” In National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 2002 , vol.17, ed. Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, 159–218. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Stone, Lawrence D., Colleen M. Keller, Thomas M. Kratzke, and Johan P. Strumpfer. 2014.“Search for theWreckage of Air France Flight AF 447.” Statistical Science 29, no. 1: 69–80.
Storchmann, Karl. 2011. “Wine Economics: Emergence, Developments, Topics.” Agrekon 50, no. 3: 1–28.
Suki, Bela, and Urs Frey. 2017. “A Time Varying Biased RandomWalk Model of Growth: Application to Height from Birth to Childhood.” Journal of Critical Care 38: 362–370.
Suroweicki, James. 2006. The Wisdom of Crowds . New York: Anchor Press.
Syverson, Chad. 2007. “Prices, Spatial Competition, and Heterogeneous Producers: An Empirical Test.” Journal of Industrial Economics 55, no. 2: 197–222.
Taleb, Nassim. 2001. Fooled by Randomness . New York: Random House.
Taleb, Nassim. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable . New York: Random House.
Taleb, Nassim. 2012. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder . New York: Random House.
Tassier, Troy. 2013. The Economics of Epidemiology. Amsterdam: Springer.
Tetlock, Phillip. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Thaler, R. H. 1981. “Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency.” Economic Letters 8, no. 3: 201–207.
Thompson, Derek. 2014. “How You, I, and Everyone Got the Top 1 Percent All Wrong: Unveiling the Real Story Behind the Richest of the Rich.” Atlantic, March 30.
Thorndike, Edward L. 1911. Animal Intelligence. New York: Macmillan.
Tilly, Charles. 1998. Durable Inequality . Berkeley: University of California Press.
Tsebelis, George. 2002. Veto Players: How Political InstitutionsWork. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Turchin, Peter. 1998. Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
Tweedle, Valerie, and Robert J. Smith. 2012. “A Mathematical Model of Bieber Fever: The Most Infectious Disease of Our Time?” In Understanding the Dynamics of Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases Using Mathematical Models, ed. Steady Mushayabasa and Claver P. Bhunu. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Ugander, Johan, Brian Karrer, Lars Backstrom, and Cameron Marlow. 2011. “The Anatomy of the Facebook Social Graph.” arXiv: 1111.4503.
Updike, John. 1960. “Hub Fans Bid Adieu.” New Yorker, October 22.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2013. Consumer Expenditures in 2011 . Report 1042, April. Washington, DC: BLS.
Uzzi, Brian, Satyam Mukherjee, Michael Stringer, and Ben Jones. 2013. “Atypical Combinations and Scientific Impact.” Science 342: 468–471.
Van Noorden, Richard. 2015. “Interdisciplinary Research by the Numbers.” Nature, September 16.
von Neumann, John, and Morgenstern, Oskar. 1953. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Vriend, Nicolaas J. 2000. “An Illustration of the Essential Difference Between Individual and Social Learning, and Its Consequences for Computational Analyses.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24: 1–19.
Wainer, Howard. 2009. Picturing the UncertainWorld. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Wakeland, W., A. Nielsen, and P. Geissert. 2015. “Dynamic Model of Nonmedical Opioid Use Trajectories and Potential Policy Interventions.” American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse 41, no. 6: 508–518.
Waltz, Kenneth. 1979. Theory of International Politics . New York: McGraw-Hill.
Washington Post . 2012. “Mad Money: TV Ads in the 2012 Presidential Campaign.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics /track-presidential-campaignads-2012.
Watts, Duncan. 2011. Everything Is Obvious Once You Know the Answer . New York: Crown Business.
Watts, Duncan, and Steven Strogatz. 1998. “Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-World’Networks.” Nature 393, no. 6684: 440–442.
Weisberg, Michael. 2007. “Three Kinds of Idealization.” Journal of Philosophy 104, no. 12: 639–659.
Weisberg, Michael. 2012. Simulation and Similarity: Using Models to Understand the World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Weisberg, Michael, and Muldoon, Ryan. 2009. “Epistemic Landscapes and the Division of Cognitive Labor.” Philosophy of Science 76, no. 2: 225–252.
Weitzman, Martin L. 1979. “Optimal Search for the Best Alternative.” Econometrica 77: 641–654.
Weitzman, Martin L. 1998. “Recombinant Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 2: 331–361.
Wellman, Michael. 1990. “Fundamental Concepts of Qualitative Probabilistic Networks.”Artificial Intelligence 44: 257–303.
Wellman, Michael. 2013. “Head to Head: Does US High-Frequency Trading Need Stricter Regulatory Oversight? (YES).” International Financial Law Review, September.
West, Geoffrey. 2017. Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies . New York: Penguin.
Whittle, Peter. 1979. “Discussion of Dr Gittins' Paper.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 41, no. 2: 148–177.
Whitty, Robin W. 2017. “Some Comments on Multiple Discovery in Mathematics.” Journal of Humanistic Mathematics 7, no. 1: 172–188.
Wigner, Eugene. 1960. “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences.” Communications in Pure and Applied Mathematics 13, no. 1.
Wilkinson, Richard, and Kate Pickett. 2009. The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger . London: Bloomsbury.
Wilson, David Sloan. 1975. “A Theory of Group Selection.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 72, no. 1: 143–146.
Wolfram, Stephen. 2001. A New Kind of Science . Champaign, IL: Wolfram Media.
Wright, Robert. 2001. Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny. New York: Vintage.
Wu, Jianzhong, and Robert Axelrod. 1995. “How to Cope with Noise in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39, no. 1: 183–189.
Wuchty, Stefan, Benjamin F. Jones, and Brian Uzzi. 2007. “The Increasing Dominance of Teams in the Production of Knowledge.” Science 316, no. 5827: 1036–1039.
Xie, Yu. 2007. “Otis Dudley Duncan's Legacy: The Demographic Approach to Quantitative Reasoning in Social Science.” Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 25: 141–156.
Xie, Yu, Alexandra Killewald, and Christopher Near. 2016. “Between - and Within-Occupation Inequality: The Case of High Status Professions.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 663, no. 1: 53–79.
Youn, Hyejin, Deborah Strumsky, Luis Bettencourt, and José Lobo. 2015. “Inventions as a Combinatorial Process: Evidence From US Patents.” Journal of the Royal Society Interfaces 12: 0272.
Zagorsky, Jay. 2007. “Do You Have to Be Smart to Be Rich? The Impact of IQ onWealth, Income and Financial Distress.” Intelligence 35: 489–501.
Zahavi, Amotz. 1974. “Mate Selection: A Selection for a Handicap.” Journal of Theoretical Biology 53, no. 1: 205–214.
Zak, Paul, and Stephen Knack. 2001. “Trust and Growth.” Economic Journal 111, no.470: 295–321.
Zaretsky, Adam. 1998. “Have Computers Made Us More Productive? A Puzzle.” Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Ziliak, Stephen T., and Deirdre N. McCloskey. 2008. The Cult of Statistical Significance: How the Standard Error Costs Us Jobs, Justice, and Lives. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
延伸阅读
《多样性红利》
◎ 一个人是否聪明不是由智商决定的,而取决于认知工具的多样性!
◎ 《多样性红利》创造性提出多样性视角、启发式、解释和预测模型四个认知工具箱框架。
◎ 广受欢迎的“模型思维课”主讲人斯科特·佩奇经典名作!
《表象与本质》
◎ 闻名世界的认知科学家侯世达凭借独特的智慧与天赋,联合法国心理学家桑德尔,终于向世人展示了这部极具开创性的著作,一解人类认知之谜。
◎ 人类大脑中的每个概念都源于多年来不知不觉中形成的一长串类比,这些类比赋予每个概念生命,我们在一生中不断充实这些概念。大脑无时无刻都在作类比。类比,就是思考之源和思维之火。
《复杂经济学》
◎ 作为“复杂经济学”的创始人,布莱恩·阿瑟在本书中汇集了多年对复杂经济学的研究。其核心思想可以归结为:经济不一定处于均衡状态,演绎推理将被归纳推理所取代。
◎ 这是一本见证“复杂经济学”成长的著作,你将看到“复杂性思维”在经济学领域是如何发展起来并形成一门崭新的学科。
◎ 详细讨论了“爱尔法鲁酒吧问题”和“圣塔菲人工股票市场”两个重要项目。
《财富的起源》
◎ 物联网时代的《国富论》!牛津大学新经济思想掌门人埃里克·拜因霍克重磅力作!用复杂性重新定义经济、商业和财富,帮你理解复杂时代的复杂经济!
◎ 《财富的起源》回溯了经济学的发展脉络,用动态、主体、互动、涌现和进化5大视角审视当下经济,阐释商业设计、物理技术、社会技术促进财富增长的进化力量,提出应用复杂经济学的4大应用领域:战略、组织、金融与公共政策,助你利用这部物联网时代的《国富论》决胜商业社会!
(1) 二人均为简·奥斯汀的小说《爱玛》中的人物。——编者注
(2) 重言式,又称永真式。逻辑学名词。如果一个公式,对于它的任一解释,其真值都为真,就称为重言式。经济上称为套套逻辑。——编者注
(3) 乔纳森·海特的著作《象与骑象人》详细讲述了这个比喻。其中文简体字版已由湛庐文化策划,浙江人民出版社出版。——编者注
(4) “爱尔法鲁酒吧问题”最早由经济学家布莱恩·阿瑟提出,他的著作《复杂经济学》《技术的本质》中文简体字版已由湛庐文化策划,浙江人民出版社出版。——编者注
(5) 蒙特·卡罗方法,又称模拟统计方法,是一种以概率统计理论为指导的一类重要的数值计算方法,是使用随机数来解决很多计算问题的方法。——编者注
(6) 丹尼尔·丹尼特是著名的哲学家,他的另一本著作《直觉泵和其他思考工具》中文简体字版已由湛庐文化策划,浙江教育出版社出版。——编者注
(7) 大宗商品指无法区分的产品,如原油、猪肚和2号红小麦等。——编者注
(8) 戈雅,全名弗朗西斯科·何塞·德·戈雅·卢西恩特斯(Francisco José de Goya Lucientes),西班牙浪漫主义画派画家,代表作《裸体的马哈》。——编者注
(9) 卡特尔,由一系列生产类似产品的独立企业所构成的组织,目的是提高该类产品价格并控制其产量。——编者注