一种疾病的发病率可能较高，而其患病率和死亡率则可能相对较低。感冒就是一个例证——一年之中，上千万的人会得感冒（发病率较高），但几乎每一个感冒患者很快就能够痊愈，所以感冒的患病率——任何给定时间内患有感冒的人数——可能较低。有些疾病相对来说比较罕见，属于慢性病，而且很好治疗，所以其发病率可能较低（每年出现的病例数量不多），但患病率较高（所有患病的人数相加，而且患病的人一直有这些病症），死亡率却很低。
正如我们看到的那样，人们在评估证据时不仅常常忽略数字和数轴标签，而且经常忽略词语描述。请回忆一下本书第一部分中的那些显示“毛出生率”的美国地图。当你最初观察那些地图时，有没有想过什么是“毛出生率”？你或许会想象，出生率可以根据几个因素来调节，比如胎儿是否为活胎、是否可以活过一定的时期等。你可能会认为，由于词典上对“毛”的解释是处于自然或未经过处理状态的事物，尚未经过加工处理（如原油），所以这个词必定意味着未经处理的、纯粹的、未经调整的数字，但事实却并非如此。统计学家使用毛出生率这个术语来统计活胎数量（这是一个调整后的数字，已经减去死胎数量）。为了做出是否要从事婴儿尿布销售的决定，你应该了解的是毛出生率，而不是总的婴儿出生率（因为总的婴儿出生率包括了那些死胎的数量）。
顺便再提一句，毛死亡率这项具有相关性的统计指的是死于任何年龄的人数。如果你用毛出生率减去毛死亡率，所得结果就是如今的公共政策制定者（托马斯·马尔萨斯 [33] 曾经就对此非常感兴趣）非常感兴趣的数字：RNI，即人口自然增长率。
[1] http://www.nature.com/scitable/content/The-chromosome-number-in-humans -a-brief-15575;http://www.nasonline.org/publications/biographical -memoirs/memoir-pdfs/painter-theophilus-shickel.pdf Retrieved November6, 2015.
[2] 埃德加·米切尔（Edgar Mitchell）是美国国家航空航天局（NASA）前宇航员，曾参加了第14次阿波罗登月任务，并成为美国第6个登上月球的人。
[3] Paul Simon, Stevie Wonder, and Joni Mitchell can be considered experts in songwriting. Although they do not hold university positions, university scholars have written books and articles about them, and Mr. Simon and Mr. Wonder were recognized by the president of the United States with Kennedy Center Honors, reserved for individuals who have made great contributions to the performing arts. Ms. Mitchell received an honorary doctorate of music and won the Polaris Prize.
[4] 一种用于变态反应对症治疗的药物，主要成分为盐酸苯海拉明，该药物成分中所含的苯丙醇胺可造成脑溢血。——译者注
[5] Chomsky, N. (2015). The New York Times is pure propaganda. Salon, May 25, 2015. http://www.salon.com/2015/05/25/noam_ chomsky_ the_ new_ york_ times_ is_ pure_pro ganda_ partner/.
Achbar, M., Symansky, A., & Wintonick, P. (Producers) and Achbar, M.& Wintonick, P. (Directors). (1992). Manufacturing Consent: Noam Chomsky and the Media (Motion picture) . USA: BuyIndies.com Inc. and Zeitgeist Films. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v= BsiBl2CaDFg.
[6] TMZ.com：创办于2005年的一家美国娱乐新闻网站，专注于名人的八卦新闻报道。TMZ是Thirty Mile Zone（30英里区域）的首字母缩写，主要指洛杉矶市30英里以内的地区。——译者注
[7] 卡洛斯·桑塔纳（Carlos Santana，1947 —2017），墨西哥裔美国音乐艺术家。——译者注
[8] 詹姆斯·厄尔·琼斯（James Earl Jones，1931—2017），美国演员。——译者注
[9] 查尔斯·曼森（Charles Manson，1934—2017），美国邪教组织曼森家族领袖。——译者注
[10] Audience,Inc.公司：一家移动设备语音及音频处理器供应商。——译者注
[11] Melendez, E. D. (2013, Feb. 1 ).Twitter stock marker hoax draws attention of regulators. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/01/twitter -stock-market-hoax_n_ 2601753.html; http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/.
[12] Farrell, M.(2015, July 14). Twitter shares hit by takeover hoax.http://www.wsj.com/a rticles/twitter-shares-hit-by-takeover-hoax-1436918683.
[13] Washington Post writer falls for fake congressman Twitter account. Huffington Post, updated Sept. 7,2010. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/07/washington-post-writer-fa_n_ 707132.html; http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/09/obama_ deficits _ and_ the_ ditch.html.
[14] This is taken verbatim from The Organized Mind. Levi-tin, D.J.(2014). The Organized Mind . New York: Dutton.
[15] Leary, A.(2014, Feb. 4 ).Misleading GOP website took donation meant for Alex Sink. Tampa Bay Times. http://www.tam pabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/misleading-gop-website-took-donation-meant-for-alex-sink/2164138.
[16] Pink, D. (2013). Deceiving domain names not allowed.Wickwire Holm http://www.wickwireholm.com/Portals/0/newsletter/BLU%20Newsletter%20-%20January%202013%20-%20Deceiving% 20Domain%20Names%20Not%20Allowed.pdf http://www.carters.ca/pub/bulletin/charity/2014/chylb342.htm.
[17] https://www.canada drugs.com/; https://www.getcanadadrugs.com/(no longer available); Naud , M. (n. d.). Registered trade-mark canadadrugs.com found decep-tively misdescriptive . ROBIC. http://www.robic.ca/admin/pdf/682/293.045E-MNA2007.pdf.
[18] The inflammatory quote from the website comes from the book by Taylor Branch, Pillar of Fire , but the author notes that he did not hear the tapes himself, he took them from three FBI agents who reported them to him.
[19] Sources which identify Stormfront as the Internet’ s “first hate site” include:
Levin, B. (2003).“Cyberhate: A legal and historical analysis of extremists’ use of computer networks in America,” in Perry, B.,ed., Hate and Bias Crime: A Reader . New York: Routledge, p.363.
Ryan, N. (2004). Into a World of Hate: A Journey Among the Extreme Right. New York: Routledge. p. 80.
Samuels, S. (1997).“ Is the Holocaust unique?,” in Rosenbaum, Alan S., ed., Is the Holocaust Unique?: Perspectives on Comparative Genocide , Boul-der, CO: Westview Press, p218.
Bolaffi, G.; et al., eds. (2002). Dictionary of Race, Ethnicity and Culture . Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage Publications, p.254.
[20] 作者在此处引用这句俗语，意在说明，专业人士在解决问题时，往往会偏向于倚仗自己的专长，而且他们对自己思维方式上的这种偏向，又常常意识不到。——译者注
[21] Alexa.com是一家专门发布网站世界排名的网站。——译者注
[22] PubMed是一种免费搜索引擎，提供生物医学及与医学相关方面的论文和摘要搜索。——译者注
[23] O’Reilly, L.(2014, Oct.8). TED Bull will pay $10 to customers disappointed the drink didn’t actually give them “wings.”http://www.businessinsider.com/red-bull-settles-false-advertising-lawsuit-for-13-million-2014-10.
[24] Associated Press.(2015.Feb. 11). Target agrees to pay $3.9 million in false-advertising lawsuit. http://journal record.com/2015/02/11/target-agrees-to-pay-3-9-million-in-false-advertising-lawsuit-law/.
[25] Federal Trade Commission. (2009, April 20). Kellogg settles FTC charges that ads for Frosted Mini-Wheats were false [press release/].https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2009/04/kellogg-settles-ftc-charges-ads-frosted-mini-wheats -were-false.
[26] 匹诺曹（Pinocchio）：意大利童话故事《木偶奇遇记》中的一个小木偶。每当匹诺曹说谎话时，他的鼻子就会立刻变长。——译者注
[27] 杰佩托（Geppetto）：《木偶奇遇记》中老木匠樱桃师傅的好朋友，他制作了匹诺曹木偶人。——译者注
[28] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/.
[29] Carroll, L. (2015, Nov.22).Fact-chfecking Trump’ s claim tat thousands in New Jersey cheered when World Trade Center tumbled. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/22/donald-trump/fact-checking-trumps-claim-thousands-new-jersey-ch/.
[30] Sanders,K.(2015, April 16). In Iowa, Hillary Clinton claims“all my grandparents”came to the U.S. from foreign countries. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/apr/16/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-flubs-familys-immigration-history-/.
[31] The population of the United States, as of this writing. http://www.census.gov/popclock/.
[32] American Heart Association (205). AHA Statistical Update. Circulation , 131, p.434–441. I thank McGill University Librarians Robin Canuel and Genevieve Gore for help in finding these statistics.
[33] 托马斯·马尔萨斯（Thomas Malthus，1766—1834）：英国的一位牧师，他著有的《人口原理》一书，于1798年出版问世。——译者注
